Increase. We made it. The offseason is over, and the Cubs common season – and people elevated expectations – begins tomorrow. However in case you slept by means of the winter, I’m right here to catch you up on all the pieces you might want to know earlier than Recreation #1.
There’s a New Supervisor in City!
It appears like ceaselessly in the past, however the Cubs offseason began off with a loud (and fully surprising) BANG. Brewers supervisor Craig Counsell grew to become a free agent, and as an alternative of following David Stearns to New York to teach the Mets like most had guessed, Counsell discovered his method to the North Facet after covertly assembly with Jed Hoyer and solely a small circle of Cubs personnel. It was a surprising growth and a complete coup for the Cubs, as Counsell is usually thought-about to be top-of-the-line managers in baseball. Sure, which means the Cubs moved on from David Ross earlier than his contract was full. It genuinely caught lots of us abruptly.
After all, the Cubs are paying handsomely for the privilege — they made Counsell the very best paid supervisor in MLB historical past (5 years, $40M).
Counsell is seen as a big improve over David Ross — we’ve watched for years because the Brewers outperformed their projections and anticipated efficiency — with a specific power in managing pitching staffs. He’ll even have a bigger share of voice *inside* the entrance workplace than nearly any supervisor in baseball, which means he’ll have a real say in the way forward for the group. That’s one more reason this was such a monumental choice. With Hoyer up prime, Carter Hawkins (Guardians) at GM, and now Craig Counsell (Brewers) within the supervisor/front-office hybrid function, the Cubs core mind belief immediately appears to be like considerably completely different than it did only a couple years in the past.
As you’ll be able to think about (and luxuriate in), Brewers followers did NOT take the information effectively.
Cubs Offseason Additions
The Cubs didn’t have a very busy offseason by way of free agent signings (no less than not relative to our expectations after signing Counsell…), however they did get the job accomplished, checking three key bins in free company and one different through commerce.
Notable Cubs Free Agent Signings
- Cody Bellinger: 3-years, $80M (Two opt-outs)
- Shota Imanaga: 4-years, $53M (can balloon to five/$80M)
- Hector Neris: 1-year, $9M ($9M possibility for 2025)
You possibly can click on on their names for particulars on every signing.
It took all winter (and a bit little bit of Spring) to truly get it accomplished, however Cody Bellinger finally discovered his approach again to the Cubs on a three-year, $80M take care of choose outs after years one and two. Bellinger remade himself final yr – successful 2023 NL Comeback Participant of the Yr within the course of – however it didn’t end result within the type of big-money, long-term deal he was in search of. The quick clarification? The business didn’t imagine his wonderful outcomes matched his admittedly weak batted ball metrics. He’ll got down to show them mistaken this season and re-enter the free agent market once more subsequent winter.
However whereas Bellinger could also be disenchanted by the affords he acquired this offseason, this labored out about as completely as attainable for the Cubs, who get Bellinger again with hardly any long-term monetary danger. Bellinger will begin in middle subject till the Cubs prime prospect, Pete Crow-Armstrong, is able to take over. At that time, Bellinger can play first base.
Shota Imanaga was the second largest free agent signing of the Cubs offseason, and we mainly acquired extra enthusiastic about his potential with each Cactus League inning. The comparatively quick, 30-year-old left-hander is making his Main League debut this season after beforehand pitching in Japan, the place he was a two-time All-Star, a Central League strikeout champ, and the proprietor of a no-hitter again in 2022. Imanaga’s calling card is his distinctive fastball (you gotta see the motion to imagine it), which he’s been working to raise all spring. And it’s onerous to say it isn’t working — Imanaga struck out a ridiculous 25 batters in 12.2 Cactus League innings. LOL. Sure, please.
And lastly, you might have Hector Neris, the primary sure-fire free-agent reliever the Cubs have signed in fairly some time. Neris, 34, misplaced some velo on his fastball final season, however was nonetheless as efficient as anybody on the market (1.71 ERA). He’ll be the first set-up man to Adbert Alzolay this season. Neris’ one-year, $9M workforce possibility for 2025 can flip right into a participant possibility if Neris reaches 60 video games this yr. And if he hits all his incentives, the deal can go as excessive as two-years, $23.25M. Suffice it to say, the Cubs could be THRILLED if he pitched usually sufficient and effectively sufficient to earn his full quantity.
Different Notable Offseason Additions:
- Michael Busch (Commerce)
- Yency Almonte (Commerce)
- Garrett Cooper (Minor league FA)
You possibly can learn rather more about Garrett Cooper (who made the workforce after a ST battle) and Yency Almonte by clicking on these hyperlinks, however Michael Busch is the headliner. The Cubs knew they wanted no less than yet one more bat this offseason (along with Bellinger), ideally somebody that would play first or third base (or DH). Free agent 1B Rhys Hoskins was connected to the Cubs all winter lengthy, however he wound up signing with the Brewers, whereas the Cubs made an surprising and splashy commerce with the Dodgers.
However it was pricey. For Busch (and Almonte), the Cubs despatched well-liked outfield prospect Zyhir Hope and their 2022 second-round decide Jackson Ferris. The middle piece, Ferris, might have been taken within the second-round again in 2022, however he was broadly thought-about to be a first-round expertise and was rising up the rankings since being chosen. It was a very good use of assets, however it was expensive. Thus, Busch is a reputation you’re going to listen to so much about this yr.
And his story is odd. You may be questioning how Busch, already 26-years-old, remains to be a top-50 (or so) prospect in all of baseball, or why the Dodgers made him obtainable within the first place. However it’s just about as a result of the Dodgers have Freddie Freeman (1B) and Shohei Ohtani (DH) blocking him. That’s a tricky duo to leapfrog. Unattainable, actually. So the Cubs have been opportunistic and rolled the cube on Busch offering the additional left-handed thump this lineup is in any other case missing. He’s going to be the beginning first baseman from Day 1, and the Cubs are REALLY relying on his bat being a optimistic.
Notable Cubs Exits
The 2 most notable exits this offseason have been Marcus Stroman, who opted out of his contract with the Cubs and signed with the Yankees, and Jeimer Candelario, who grew to become a free agent and signed with the Reds.
Stroman, you’ll recall, was excellent within the first half of the season, posting a 2.28 ERA over his first 16 begins. However accidents and ineffectiveness completely crippled him down the stretch. After June 25, Stroman made simply 9 begins totaling 38.0 IP, whereas permitting an unthinkable 42 runs to attain (35 earned). That’s an 8.29 ERA.
Candelario had an analogous trajectory after being traded to the Cubs on the deadline. He began off sizzling, however then accidents and ineffectiveness stored him from offering a lot worth. Lengthy story quick, I’m not likely sweating both exit.
There have been additionally a handful of relievers out and in all year long, however that’s at all times true.
The Third Base Story
Most likely the most important storyline for the 2024 Cubs going into the season begins at third base. In brief, Christopher Morel has been handed the keys to the place on the hope that he can get his glove (or actually, his throwing accuracy) as much as no less than simply barely beneath common….sure, it’s arguably worse than that proper now. As a result of if he can develop into even a slightly-below-average third baseman defensively total, his bat will carry him MUCH additional than that by way of total worth.
If it doesn’t work out, the Cubs could also be compelled to have extra begins obtainable for Nick Madrigal, Patrick Knowledge, or Miles Mastrobuoni, whereas pushing Morel again to DH. And if that occurs, the beginning spots will begin to get crowded as soon as PCA comes up and pushes Bellinger to first.
Cubs Place Gamers
DH – Mike Tauchman
C – Yan Gomes
1B – Michael Busch
2B – Nico Hoerner
3B – Christopher Morel
SS – Dansby Swanson
LF – Ian Happ
CF – Cody Bellinger
RF – Seiya Suzuki
Bench: Miguel Amaya, Garrett Cooper, Miles Mastrobuoni, Nick Madrigal
IL: Patrick Knowledge
I’m not going to run by means of your complete group there, however we are able to hit some massive factors by ranging from the highest. To begin the yr, I think we’ll see Mike Tauchman at designated hitter greater than some other participant. The place might be used for relaxation and rotation, sure, however on a standard day in opposition to a standard righty, I think Tauchman is the man. Ultimately, later within the yr, that spot might be roped off for Michael Busch (pushed off first by Bellinger, who was pushed off middle by PCA), however we’re a methods away from that.
Behind the plate, I believe we’ll see a reasonably even timeshare between Yan Gomes and Miguel Amaya, with Gomes because the nominal “starter.”
At first, Busch is the person, and might be nearly on a regular basis. HOWEVER, I do assume we’ll see Garrett Cooper in there in opposition to lefties, no less than till (1) Busch proves himself in opposition to lefties or (2) Patrick Knowledge returns from the IL and tackle that function, himself.
We already talked about 3B and the remainder of the group is identical starters as final yr. Not a lot new right here!
- Justin Steele, LHP
- Kyle Hendricks, RHP
- Shota Imanaga, LHP
- Jordan Wicks, LHP
- Javier Assad, RHP
Depth: Drew Smyly, Hayden Wesneski, Ben Brown? Cade Horton?
IL: Jameson Taillon
Jameson Taillon will finally discover his approach again into the Cubs rotation (and don’t sleep on how strong/acceptable he was final yr after his disastrous first-half). However for now, he’s out and being back-filled by Javier Assad. That leaves Drew Smyly (bullpen) and Hayden Wesneski (Iowa) ready within the wings as the first swing-men/fill-in starters, which is completely effective. Ultimately, we may even see one or two of the highest pitching prospects, however maintain that thought for now.
As for the rotation, it’s effective. Perhaps a bit too left-handed a bit too soft-tossing, however this isn’t a bunch that may sink you. Justin Steele is a bona fida stud, and Hendricks, Imanaga, Wicks, and Assad are going to out-think and out-pitch most lineups. That’s simply their model. There might be loads of balls in play this yr, however outdoors of third base, the Cubs protection is fairly darn sturdy, particularly up the center. And it’ll solely get higher (at two positions) as soon as PCA arrives and Bellinger strikes to first.
I believe “stability” is the secret for this rotation. It’s a strong group, with reasonable upside, a gentle basis, and loads of strong depth.
Adbert Alzolay emerged because the Cubs nearer final season out of necessity, however he actually ran with it. This yr, he’ll have all the identical bones to work with plus the expertise he gained final season. He’ll even have a way more reliable set-up man in Hector Neris, and two actually high-quality, high-leverage guys in Julian Merryweather and Mark Leiter Jr. They’re each righties, however Leiter Jr. is especially efficient in opposition to lefties, so that offers the Cubs an ideal seventh inning possibility it doesn’t matter what lineup they face.
Drew Smyly’s success out of the pen final yr was an excessive amount of for Craig Counsell to cross up, so he’s again within the bullpen. Luke Little will convey some warmth from the left aspect, Jose Cuas brings a cool search for righties, and Almonte is a little bit of a TBD for me. I simply don’t have a terrific learn on him but. All in all, it’s not a horrible group. It’s additionally rather more established than it was final yr, and may get improved internally when Jameson Taillon heals up and pushes Javier Assad again into the ‘pen (or when Ben Brown, Daniel Palencia, or different younger arms present up).
Prime Cubs Prospects We Would possibly See Quickly
Jordan Wicks and Michael Busch nonetheless qualify as prospects, however each are Day 1 starters for the 2024 Chicago Cubs, so no information there. Luke Little can be a top-20 Cubs prospect who’s made the workforce out of camp. Past that trio, although, there are others:
Canario has already been up with the large league workforce, however he didn’t break camp on the energetic roster. I used to be rooting for him to make it, as I believe he’ll be a terrific right-handed bat that may play all three outfield spots or DH as wanted, however he’s nonetheless younger, engaged on stuff, and never far faraway from a number of accidents/surgical procedure. Given the composition of the roster, a starter’s share of Triple-A at-bats for Canario is a superbly effective consequence. Similar goes for Matt Mervis, who’s in no-man’s land now that Michael Busch (and Cody Bellinger) are on the Cubs. His future on this org is murky, at finest.
Pete Crow-Armstrong is the Cubs prime prospects and arguably already top-of-the-line defensive middle fielders on the planet. However his debut final yr (which was unfold out, quick, and in a divisional race) didn’t go too effectively. So he’ll begin the yr out at Iowa, but when he’s producing offensively after about 100 PAs, you’ll be able to count on him to be up and patrolling middle subject shortly thereafter, pushing Bellinger to first base. It’s going to be a giant deal.
Ben Brown, 24, is nearer to debuting than Cade Horton, 22, however the former may come up in reduction (earlier than switching to beginning long-term). Horton, in contrast … I simply doubt the Cubs are going to play that recreation with him. In different phrases, when it’s his time, I believe he’ll begin proper. However that’s the factor, it’ll may take a while. I believe we’ll see Horton earlier than the top of the yr, however he solely simply reached Double-A final season. So he nonetheless has one thing left to show. That stated, he’s one of the thrilling Cubs pitching prospects in 20 years.
There are additionally a few prospects that aren’t essentially LIKELY to debut this season, however could be VERY enjoyable in the event that they do: Matt Shaw, Owen Caissie, Kevin Alcantara, Moises Ballesteros, and many others. We noticed lots of these guys this Spring, and most will discover properties in Double/Triple-A for a lot of the yr. If you’re this good and this near the large leagues, something can occur. However I wouldn’t depend on seeing them this season.
Cubs Expectations
I only recently wrote about 1,200 phrases on my elevated expectations for the 2024 Chicago Cubs, so I gained’t re-hash that proper right here. Suffice it to say, even with middling projections, that is completely a playoffs-or-bust kind season. The Cubs will not be the category of the Nationwide League (Dodgers, Braves). However they play in a particularly weak division and easily shouldn’t be let off the hook for something lower than a playoff berth.
Cool Cubs Opponents/Occasions
I additionally did a deep dive into the Cubs schedule, month-by-month, earlier in March, so examine that piece out for an total evaluation of the Cubs plans. Within the meantime, listed below are a few of the key/enjoyable dates on the calendar:
New MLB Guidelines
In case you missed it, there are lots of new guidelines in MLB final season, together with shift limits, greater bases, pickoff limits, and the pitch clock. Amongst different outcomes, these rule modifications led to considerably shorter video games and lots of MANY extra stolen bases.
Among the many new rule modifications: