Kirk Cousins’ newest jackpot contract has already moved the Atlanta Falcons’ new quarterback previous Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees on unofficial all-time NFL earnings lists, because of a $50 million signing bonus.
Cousins’ $281 million profession whole and the $130 million remaining on his new four-year, $180 million contract places him on tempo to move Tom Brady for third in 2025, behind Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford, per Over the Cap (Russell Wilson additionally may issue).
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$100 million gamble on Kirk Cousins declares the Falcons are completed being affected person
It’s a exceptional achievement.
As a fourth-round draft alternative in 2012, Cousins didn’t begin incomes large cash till after enjoying out his four-year, $2.57 million rookie contract. Whereas strong throughout 145 profession begins with three groups, Cousins has lengthy been thought of higher on the negotiating desk than on the sector. Till his profession produces the playoff success upon which quarterback legacies are constructed, Cousins (1-3 document within the postseason) will stay the one longtime beginning quarterback in NFL historical past greatest identified for his checking account.
Cousins has ranked about fifteenth on common amongst veteran beginning quarterbacks in eight appearances in my annual Quarterback Tiers surveys of coaches and executives. He ranked about eighth in common annual wage throughout these seasons. The ratio of his common Tiers rating (15.4) to his common wage rank (8.1) equals 1.89-1. It’s the most important ratio amongst 52 quarterbacks with greater than three Quarterback Tiers appearances, affirming Cousins’ repute for maximizing his pockets.
The Kirk Cousins Index stacks the ten quarterbacks with the very best ratios since Quarterback Tiers debuted in 2014 (minimal 4 appearances), providing extra perspective for every.
1. Kirk Cousins
Tiers appearances: 8
Common Tiers rank: 15.4
Common wage rank: 8.1
Tiers to wage ratio: 1.89-1
Cousins trails Rodgers, Stafford, Brady, Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson on the all-time profession earnings checklist, counting absolutely assured salaries owed to gamers in 2024, per Over the Cap. The totals within the desk embrace massive 2024 payouts for Cousins ($62.5 million, together with the $50 million bonus), Wilson ($39 million, largely owed by Denver), Rodgers ($38.2 million) and Stafford ($31 million). Staff logos for gamers replicate their present or main groups.
Profession earnings, per Over the Cap
Rank | QB | New Whole |
---|---|---|
1 |
$381,692,206 |
|
2 |
$359,000,000 |
|
3 |
$317,619,794 |
|
4 |
$306,205,882 |
|
5 |
$305,340,123 |
|
6 |
$293,969,288 |
|
7 |
$273,933,000 |
|
8 |
$266,340,123 |
|
9 |
$247,714,000 |
|
10 |
$242,150,000 |
|
11 |
$232,490,000 |
|
12 |
$210,000,000 |
|
13 |
$195,050,979 |
Cousins is considered one of 36 quarterbacks with at the very least 50 begins since his QB Tiers debut in 2016. His groups have been a lot better on offense (thirteenth out of 36 in EPA per begin, per TruMedia) than on protection/particular groups (twenty eighth of 36) whereas posting a 65-53-2 (.550) document in these begins.
The Washington Commanders are nonetheless trying to find a long-term successor to Cousins six years after letting him depart in free company. They rank twenty seventh among the many 32 NFL groups in offensive EPA per play since Cousins departed.
Is Cousins underrated?
If he returns to type coming off a torn Achilles suffered in October, he must be value about 2.4 extra wins per season for the Falcons.
ESPN’s Whole QBR metric permits us to make these calculations as a result of, traditionally, a 50 QBR (out of 100 attainable) will win half the video games. Cousins’ common QBR in his previous 17 begins (56.3) equates to 9.6 anticipated wins (with common protection/particular groups) in a 17-game season, whereas the Falcons’ common QBR final season (42.2) equates to 7.2 anticipated wins.
Though Cousins deserves credit score for touchdown absolutely assured contracts in Minnesota, the sensible influence may be overstated as a result of groups not often launch productive starters. Nevertheless, Cousins’ willingness to play on the franchise tag and signal short-term offers — eschewing the false safety that comes with non-guaranteed years on the finish of longer-term contracts — strengthened his leverage and helped his pay hold tempo with the rising wage cap.
Wilson and Dak Prescott — who may reset the market this offseason simply three years after signing his final deal — have additionally taken short-term offers to rise from mid-round picks to among the many league’s high earners.
2. Colin Kaepernick
Tiers appearances: 4
Common Tiers rank: 22.3
Common wage rank: 13.0
Tiers to wage ratio: 1.71-1
Kaepernick was coming off his breakout 2013 season when he debuted at 14th within the inaugural version of Quarterback Tiers. The 49ers had simply signed him to a six-year extension that slotted his wage sixth in common per yr (APY). His future appeared vivid.
He rapidly misplaced traction, nevertheless, because the group round him fell aside and accidents turned an element. Kaepernick bottomed out with a No. 29 rating within the 2016 Quarterback Tiers, printed a couple of weeks earlier than he first knelt through the nationwide anthem earlier than a 49ers preseason recreation. That might be his remaining season within the league.
Kaepernick was amongst 30 quarterbacks to make at the very least 30 begins from 2014 to ’17, the seasons he appeared in Quarterback Tiers. Of these 30 quarterbacks, solely Josh McCown-led offenses have been much less productive from an EPA per begin standpoint, whereas solely Drew Brees bought worse assist as a starter from his protection/particular groups. That mixture explains Kaepernick’s 11-24 (.314) beginning document over that stretch.
Tiers appearances: 7
Common Tiers rank: 18.1
Common wage rank: 12.0
Tiers to wage ratio: 1.51 to 1
This may be the Joe Flacco Index, not the Kirk Cousins Index, if Flacco had not appeared within the 2021 Quarterback Tiers (the place he ranked thirty fourth) whereas rating fortieth in APY. That was the season Flacco landed with Philadelphia as a possible starter, earlier than the Eagles named Jalen Hurts to the position.
Flacco’s red-hot run via the 2012 postseason with the Ravens featured 11 landing passes, zero interceptions and Tremendous Bowl MVP honors, serving to him land a six-year, $120.6 million extension that reset the market. His timing couldn’t have been higher for maximizing monetary achieve. The Ravens wound up paying for previous manufacturing.
Flacco was considered one of 34 quarterbacks with at the very least 40 begins over the seven seasons during which he appeared in Quarterback Tiers. His offenses ranked twenty ninth out of the 34 in offensive EPA per begin, forward of solely the offenses for Derek Carr, Jay Cutler, Mitch Trubisky, Case Keenum and Blake Bortles. Flacco managed a 36-40 beginning document throughout these seasons, largely as a result of solely two of these 34 quarterbacks — Josh Allen and Trubisky — bought extra EPA assist per begin from their defenses and particular groups.
4. Jay Cutler
Tiers appearances: 4
Common Tiers rank: 20.5
Common wage rank: 13.8
Tiers to wage ratio: 1.49-1
The Chicago Bears acquired Cutler from Denver in 2009 and prolonged his contract via 2013, at which level there was appreciable hypothesis over whether or not the group would prolong his contract once more, and for a way a lot. On the time, a contract negotiator from one other group predicted somebody would pay big cash to Cutler whether or not or not the quarterback deserved it.
“I feel there shall be a group determined for a quarterback who doesn’t just like the quarterbacks within the draft,” this exec stated then. “Possibly they suppose they’re shut and the GM says Jay Cutler is not any completely different from Joe Flacco, that you could win a championship with him. It simply takes considered one of 32 groups to make that judgment, and I feel there’s an excellent likelihood somebody will. Cutler can nonetheless be fairly darn good.”
Positive sufficient, the Bears signed Cutler to a seven-year extension with the NFL’s seventh-highest APY coming into the 2014 season. The outcomes mirrored what Kaepernick and the 49ers skilled over the subsequent 4 seasons. The Bears and Miami Dolphins mixed to go 18-31 (.367) with Cutler within the lineup from 2014 to ’17, his Quarterback Tiers seasons. Solely 4 of 30 quarterbacks with at the very least 30 begins over that span led less-productive offenses than the one Cutler led, whereas solely 5 of those quarterbacks bought worse assist from their defenses and particular groups.
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5. Sam Bradford
Tiers appearances: 5
Common Tiers rank: 24.8
Common wage rank: 17.2
Tiers to wage ratio: 1.44-1
Bradford entered the NFL as the primary choose within the 2010 draft, one yr earlier than the rookie wage scale suppressed salaries. His rookie deal carried a $13 million APY that ranked tenth within the league, between the offers for Peyton Manning and Rodgers. That ought to have arrange Bradford for large extensions, however he suffered two torn ACLs in a 10-month span, sidelining him for the 2014 season and precipitating his commerce to Philadelphia.
By way of the accidents and unrelated profession turbulence, Bradford was at all times gifted sufficient to command a beginning alternative and the cash that got here with it however by no means constantly productive sufficient to have endurance.
Bradford had already earned $51 million from his 49-start profession with the Rams earlier than making his Quarterback Tiers debut in 2014 (the Rams would pay him one other $14 million earlier than buying and selling him to the Eagles).
From that time ahead, the underside line on Bradford was breathtaking:
- $24 million for 14 begins with the Eagles
- $25 million for 17 begins with the Vikings
- $15.9 million for 3 begins with the Cardinals
The Eagles acquired Bradford on his rookie deal, began him for 14 video games in 2015 (7-7 document, pedestrian stats) after which signed him to a two-year, $36 million extension, solely to commerce up for Carson Wentz within the 2016 draft. Bradford protested, refusing to attend voluntary offseason camps. The Eagles held onto him, then traded him to Minnesota for a first-round choose when the Vikings misplaced starter Teddy Bridgewater to damage.
Whereas Bradford signed some notable contracts, his low standing amongst Tiers voters was a powerful driver of his place on the Kirk Cousins Index.
Bradford was considered one of 33 quarterbacks to make at the very least 30 begins from 2014 to ’18. Solely 5 of these quarterbacks (Carr, Kaepernick, Bortles, McCown and Brock Osweiler) led worse offenses by EPA per begin. Bradford managed a 16-18 (.471) document as a result of solely seven of these 33 quarterbacks bought better assist on protection/particular groups.
6. Carson Palmer
Tiers appearances: 4
Common Tiers rank: 15.5
Common wage rank: 11.3
Tiers to wage ratio: 1.38-1
Like Bradford, Palmer entered the NFL as a No. 1 choose (in 2003) earlier than the league and its gamers agreed upon a wage scale for rookies. Consequently, Palmer had already earned greater than $100 million earlier than making his Quarterback Tiers debut in 2014. He commanded greater than $65 million in extra compensation over his remaining 4 seasons, ninth-most amongst quarterbacks within the league over that interval — barely forward of Cutler and Bradford, and nicely forward of a few different respectable quarterbacks in Brady and Rodgers.
Palmer posted a 28-15-1 (.648) document throughout his four-year run in Quarterback Tiers (2014-17), all with Arizona. That ranked seventh amongst 30 quarterbacks with at the very least 30 begins over that span. It was a group effort. His groups ranked seventh in offensive EPA per begin and eighth on protection/particular groups amongst these quarterbacks.
Did Tiers voters underrate Palmer? They appreciated his toughness in an offense that invited punishment with its emphasis on deep passing, however additionally they docked him for interceptions and feared the top was quick approaching bodily.
7. Eli Manning
Tiers appearances: 6
Common Tiers rank: 13.5
Common wage rank: 10.2
Tiers to wage ratio: 1.33-1
There isn’t a lot distinction between the place Manning — one other No. 1 choose below the outdated CBA — ranked in Tiers and the place he ranked from an APY standpoint. Each rankings have been most likely too excessive for the 2014-19 interval Manning appeared in Tiers.
Similarities abound between Manning and Flacco as quarterbacks whose pedigrees as Tremendous Bowl winners propped up their reputations throughout future years within the absence of commensurate manufacturing. The New York Giants had a 32-51 (.386) document whereas paying practically $120 million to Manning from 2014 to ’19, per Spotrac.
Manning was considered one of 29 quarterbacks to make at the very least 40 begins over his six-year run in Quarterback Tiers. Six of these 29 quarterbacks led offenses that have been worse from an EPA standpoint (Flacco, Carr, Cutler, Trubisky, Keenum and Bortles). In contrast to Flacco, Manning didn’t profit from robust assist on protection/particular groups, which is why his Giants misplaced so incessantly.
Tiers appearances: 9
Common Tiers rank: 20.6
Common wage rank: 15.6
Tiers to wage ratio: 1.32-1
Tannehill would rank third on this checklist with no No. 32 APY rating for 2014, the ultimate yr of his rookie contract. He’s the one quarterback listed right here with any Tiers-era seasons on a rookie deal signed within the wage-scale period (since 2011).
Tannehill appeared in Quarterback Tiers heading into each season however 2018. He was considered one of 38 quarterbacks with at the very least 50 begins over these 9 seasons. The offenses and defenses/particular groups related to him each ranked twenty seventh out of 38 in EPA manufacturing, which makes Tannehill’s 59-50 (.541) beginning document appear lucky. A few actually robust seasons in Tennessee helped.
Tiers appearances: 6
Common Tiers rank: 17.8
Common wage rank: 13.7
Tiers to wage ratio: 1.30-1
Garoppolo’s groups went 36-20 (.643) in his begins through the 2018-23 stretch he appeared in Quarterback Tiers. That was seventh-best among the many 30 quarterbacks with at the very least 40 begins throughout these seasons. His offenses (seventh-best among the many 30) and defenses/particular groups (ninth-best) have been typically robust.
How a lot credit score did Garoppolo deserve relative to his main coach, Kyle Shanahan, and the gamers round him? Tiers voters withheld some.
Tiers appearances: 5
Common Tiers rank: 17.0
Common wage rank: 14.2
Tiers to wage ratio: 1.20-1
The fourth No. 1 choose from the pre-wage-scale CBA on this checklist, Smith overcame a tough begin to his profession in San Francisco and even returned from the ugly leg damage he suffered late in his profession with Washington. The $71 million he collected for 16 begins with Washington arguably wasn’t sufficient, given the character of his damage.
Greater image, Smith earned $98.5 million over the 2014-18 seasons, sixth-most for any quarterback over that stretch. His groups went 45-26 (.634), sixth-best amongst 27 quarterbacks with at the very least 40 begins over these seasons. He led fairly good offenses (Twelfth-best EPA amongst these 27 quarterbacks) and benefited from the fifth-best assist on protection/particular groups, however Tiers votes by no means noticed him as a driving pressure on offense.
The total Cousins Index breakdown seems beneath.
Kirk Cousins Index: Tiers to APY rating
QB | Avg Tiers | Avg APY | QBT/APY |
---|---|---|---|
15.4 |
8.1 |
1.89 |
|
22.3 |
13.0 |
1.71 |
|
18.1 |
12.0 |
1.51 |
|
20.5 |
13.8 |
1.49 |
|
24.8 |
17.2 |
1.44 |
|
15.5 |
11.3 |
1.38 |
|
13.5 |
10.2 |
1.33 |
|
20.6 |
15.6 |
1.32 |
|
17.8 |
13.7 |
1.30 |
|
17.0 |
14.2 |
1.20 |
(Pictures of, Kirk Cousins, middle, Sam Bradford, left and Joe Flacco: Mike Stewart / Related Press, Christian Peterson, Scott Taetsch / Getty Photos)
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