Would the San Francisco 49ers actually contemplate buying and selling their main receiver over a wage dispute proper as he’s hitting his prime and at a second when this franchise is very ravenous to throw a Tremendous Bowl victory parade?
Why sure, they’ve contemplated it — however that was two years in the past, in the course of the non-harmonious negotiations with Deebo Samuel, which can or might not have gotten fairly near an precise commerce in the course of the first spherical of the 2022 draft.
There was no commerce. Issues calmed down. The 49ers didn’t get a proposal they needed. The 2 sides realized they had been higher off collectively than aside. Then Deebo agreed to a three-year, $71.55 million extension with $58.1 million in ensures. However if you wish to construct a situation that will immediate head coach Kyle Shanahan and normal supervisor John Lynch to maneuver off of a really productive receiver, the Deebo state of affairs checked many of the packing containers due to the structural points concerned — the 49ers weren’t certain about Deebo’s long-term worth, and Deebo wasn’t happy that they indicated they weren’t certain about his long-term worth.
Which brings us to the present negotiations or non-negotiations (relying on who’s speaking or emoji-ing) between the 49ers and Brandon Aiyuk, their present main receiver who’s due for a really giant contract extension and isn’t afraid to let the 49ers know that he’s getting greater than antsy.
On the house owners’ conferences in Florida this week, when requested about potential commerce talks with different groups about Aiyuk, John Lynch mentioned, “Nothing’s occurring there.” I’ve heard the identical factor, that there have been no direct negotiations with different groups, however that, after all, doesn’t cease the 49ers from choosing up the telephone if anyone needs to examine in. I think about there have been some check-ins. And it solely takes one nice supply to vary all the pieces.
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Purchase
However to maneuver this wherever near a commerce, I feel Lynch and Shanahan must be fully blown away by one other group’s supply or completely satisfied that Aiyuk’s calls for are far too excessive for the 49ers’ price range. None of that has occurred but, and I’m guessing none of that’s prone to happen.
OK, sure, there are similarities to Deebo in 2022, which included a commerce request from Deebo and an attention-grabbing few weeks main as much as the draft. It’s already gotten slightly bizarre between Aiyuk and the 49ers on social media, and no person shall be overly shocked if Aiyuk ramps up the stress by issuing his personal model of a commerce request. There’s all the same old hypothesis effervescent up. The 49ers can’t pay everyone high greenback and just lately launched locker-room chief Arik Armstead after he refused to take a drastic pay minimize.
However there’s one vital distinction between 2022 with Deebo and now with Aiyuk that could possibly be spelled out within the monetary windfall Aiyuk ultimately lands: The 49ers have little or no doubt that Aiyuk shall be extraordinarily productive for a lot of extra seasons, in the identical means they had been certain about Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Trent Williams and George Kittle earlier than giving them giant new extensions over the previous few years. The identical means that Jed York is already bracing for the large new deal that Brock Purdy shall be due after subsequent season.
To repeat: The 49ers weren’t so certain about Deebo’s longevity on the high of the WR market two years in the past, which is the principle cause Deebo solely bought three years, not the 5 years (and extra assured cash) that Davante Adams bought or the 4 years that Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown bought in the identical cycle as Deebo’s negotiations.
And, whereas Deebo stays a significant a part of Shanahan’s offense, possibly the 49ers’ considerations weren’t all too flawed. Deebo’s final two seasons haven’t come near his epic receiving and working totals in 2021 — proper earlier than his new deal — when he had 1,770 yards from scrimmage. Deebo had 864 mixed speeding and receiving yards in 2022 and 1,117 in 2023.
In the meantime, Aiyuk has solely missed one sport complete from 2021 by way of 2023, and his season receiving yardage complete has been a straight arrow up, from 748 as a rookie to 826 to 1,015 to final season’s 1,342. He clearly has nice chemistry with Purdy. And although Aiyuk was thirty sixth in complete targets (105) final season, he was seventh in yards and third in receptions that went for 20 yards or extra (with 28), behind solely Hill and CeeDee Lamb, who each had 29 of these large gainers.
If the 49ers commerce Aiyuk, who’d be his alternative of their offense? Perhaps it’d be cut-and-paste if they might land one thing close to the No. 8 to 10 vary on this yr’s draft and get Washington’s Rome Odunze or LSU’s Brian Thomas Jr. However if you happen to’re a group with a WR want within the high 10, why wouldn’t you simply take Odunze or Thomas and have them on rookie offers, as a substitute of giving up the choose and paying Aiyuk someplace close to $25 million a yr?
And at last, I feel the 49ers can afford and truly have to pay Aiyuk long-term top-5 or 6 WR cash (round $24 million a yr for 4 years) even with Deebo making a mean of $23.8 million, as a result of they won’t have Deebo after subsequent season, anyway, when it’d be much less of a drastic cap hit to commerce or launch him.
The very last thing the 49ers ought to do is go away Purdy and not using a veteran WR1 going into Purdy’s far more costly years. It in all probability gained’t be Deebo. It possible gained’t be anyone within the 2024 draft class. It ought to be Aiyuk for now and into the late-2020s. Which is form of how the 49ers set it up two years in the past, anyway.
GO DEEPER
49ers haven’t any plans to commerce Brandon Aiyuk, GM says
(Photograph of Brandon Aiyuk in the course of the 49ers’ NFC divisional spherical sport towards Inexperienced Bay in January: Lachlan Cunningham / Getty Photos)