• New Minnesota Vikings RB Aaron Jones ended his 2023 marketing campaign on a blazing scorching streak: Recency bias hasn’t inflated his common draft place one bit, although.
• Pittsburgh Steelers WR George Pickens enters Yr 3 as his staff’s undisputed WR1 with loads of upside for fantasy soccer managers: He’s presently being drafted as a WR3 with a median draft place exterior the top-24 wideouts.
• Take a look at PFF’s fantasy soccer rankings: PFF’s fantasy soccer rankings embrace ranks from our specialists, projections and our energy of schedule metric.
Estimated studying time: 9 minutes
For the final 12 months, PFF has been residence for the majority of my written fantasy soccer content material, housing my spiciest opinions and boldest predictions. Now, it’s time that I ship some bittersweet information, that this shall be my final article with PFF Fantasy as I get able to pursue the subsequent alternative in my profession (extra on that quickly!). I couldn’t depart the staff with out a bang, nevertheless, in order my parting present, listed here are seven of my “must-draft” fantasy gamers for the 2024 season.
Common draft place (ADP) knowledge comes courtesy of FantasyPros.
QB Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
Present ADP: QB11 (eighth spherical)
It’s not usually that fantasy soccer managers can spot a chance to draft a quarterback with respectable top-five upside within the eighth-plus spherical of drafts, however that is completely a type of occasions. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is that dude.
It’s no secret that speeding upside has been a typical theme among the many league’s high fantasy scorers. In any case, the general QB1 in fantasy soccer has had 500 or extra speeding yards in 4 of the previous 5 seasons. Now, whilst a rookie, it’s troublesome to even think about 5 beginning quarterbacks with extra speeding upside than Daniels (Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Anthony Richardson, then…?). What these quarterbacks have in frequent, past their speeding upside, is the truth that they’re all being drafted, on common, within the top-four rounds of drafts.
In 2023, Daniels was the one quarterback in school soccer to publish a 90.0-plus PFF passing grade (92.0) and speeding grade (92.4). He ranked second amongst all quarterbacks with 1,301 speeding yards, including one other 10 speeding touchdowns to the 40 he threw, with an 8.4% big-time throw fee to enhance his 1.7% turnover-worthy play fee that ranked backside 12 within the league. There’s no higher worth than Daniels for the upside he presents, in a Kliff Kingsbury system that yielded a career-best 819 speeding yards and 11 touchdowns again in 2020.
RB Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins
Present ADP: RB28 (seventh spherical)
Although most fantasy managers have their sights set on second-year RB De’Von Achane, I nonetheless suppose the tea leaves learn in favor of veteran Raheem Mostert, making his seventh-round ADP appear like an absolute steal barring an surprising growth. Achane’s hype stage is one that’s effectively deserved attributable to his 93.1 speeding grade that led all working backs. He additionally averaged an absurd 7.4 yards per carry and achieved the one highest-scoring RB fantasy efficiency in all of 2023 with a 49.3-point outing in Week 3.
Nevertheless, the hype fails to acknowledge the numerous indicators the Dolphins’ teaching workers have supplied that time to Mostert as the first again to roster in 2024. Contemplate the next:
- Regardless of an unimaginable efficiency from then-rookie De’Von Achane, the Dolphins re-signed Raheem Mostert this offseason to a new two-year deal price as much as $9.075 million.
- Mostert, who led the league in speeding touchdowns in 2023, completed as the general RB5 on the season, together with 4 top-five weekly finishes. He ranked second within the league with a 91.7 PFF speeding grade, rating top-10 in missed compelled sort out fee (24%), yards after contact per try (3.3) and first down/landing fee (27%). So yeah, he was additionally fairly dang good.
- HC Mike McDaniel himself acknowledged that their backfield is “just about led by Raheem [Mostert].” Mostert’s utilization over Achane in important conditions spoke to that, particularly contained in the five-yard line, the place Mostert noticed 20 carries to Achane’s 5.
- Many will level to Mostert’s well being as a deterrent for a constant workload heading into his age-32 season, nevertheless, he’s missed fewer video games over the previous two seasons (three) thank Achane did in his rookie season alone (six).
In abstract, why do you have to draft Achane within the second spherical when you’ll be able to draft Mostert within the seventh as an alternative?
RB Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings
Present ADP: RB19 (fifth spherical)
When most fantasy soccer managers bear in mind Aaron Jones’ 2023 marketing campaign, they’re remembering a disappointing one. He missed six video games over the 12 months coping with hamstring and knee accidents, as he is notched only a single top-five end within the 12 months that got here method again in Week 1. Nevertheless, they is perhaps forgetting Jones’ red-hot end showcased from Week 15 on by way of the postseason, as soon as he was lastly wholesome.
Over that six-game span, Jones led all working backs with a 90.9 speeding grade, averaging 5.5 yards per rush try and a whopping 120 scrimmage yards per recreation (fourth-most). His 32.8% first down/landing fee led all working backs with 50-plus carries in that span, whereas additionally rating top-five with 3.8 yards after contact per try and a 25% missed compelled sort out fee. So no, Jones is certainly not washed, even heading into his age-29 season. With restricted competitors within the Vikings backfield for touches (Ty Chandler, Kene Nwangwu), Jones may very well be in for a big workload that effectively out-performs his fifth-round ADP.
RB Zack Moss, Cincinnati Bengals
Present ADP: RB25 (sixth to seventh spherical)
When you’ve been following my work for any period of time, you most likely know that I’ve been enamored with Zack Moss since his last 12 months at Utah. He completely dominated in 2019, posting a 91.5 speeding grade for the 12 months whereas rating among the many high of his class in key metrics like missed compelled sort out fee (38%) and yards after contact per try (4.4). Issues by no means bought off the bottom with the Buffalo Payments, nevertheless, and he discovered his approach to the Indianapolis Colts by way of commerce for his first actual alternative to steer a backfield because of an harm to celebrity Jonathan Taylor.
In a four-game stint with out Taylor within the lineup, Moss totaled 562 speeding yards and three touchdowns, including one other 128 yards and two scores by way of the air. That was sufficient to earn him a two-year, $8 million contract with the Bengals this offseason, and instantly, the lead function on one of many league’s most efficient offenses is Moss’ for the taking.
Although second-year again Chase Brown confirmed some spectacular flashes as a rookie, he by no means performed greater than 18 offensive snaps in a single recreation, failing to earn a lot work in essentially the most essential areas of the sector, incomes simply seven complete carries within the pink zone to Joe Mixon’s 59 and didn’t log single carry contained in the five-yard line (Mixon had 21). It appears possible that Moss will assume that “Joe Mixon” kind of function and see the kind of quantity that may outperform his present draft value of RB25.
WR George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers
Present ADP: WR28 (fourth spherical)
Pittsburgh Steelers vast receiver and former second-round decide George Pickens enters 2024 poised with the chance for a real breakout season, and his ADP because the twenty eighth vast receiver off the board doesn’t replicate it within the least.
Pickens has made his mark with splashy, jaw-dropping performs, as 4 of his 5 touchdowns in 2023 have been 40-plus-yard performs – the second-most such performs within the league. Regardless of having tied for the twenty seventh most targets on the place, his propensity for giant performs noticed him ranked sixteenth within the league with 1,140 receiving yards, rating top-10 in yards per goal (10.96), yards per reception (18.1) and yards after the catch per reception (6.49).
Not solely does Pickens have the chance for a big enhance in goal share absent Diontae Johnson, however he’s additionally now paired with a beginning quarterback who enhances his skillset higher than any of these he’s performed with thus far in his profession in Russell Wilson. Pickens, who ranked tenth within the league with a 99.3 receiving grade on targets of 20+ yards, will now catch passes from Russell Wilson, who had a 6-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio final 12 months on such throws, incomes a 92.3 passing grade that ranked eleventh amongst quarterbacks.
WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Present ADP: WR17 (third spherical)
Bucs WR Mike Evans has the very best common draft place of any participant on my must-draft record, presently going within the third spherical because the seventeenth vast receiver off the board. Nonetheless, it appears as if there’s some worth available there for the soon-to-be 31-year-old veteran, who hasn’t completed exterior of the highest 15 in fantasy factors per recreation since 2017.
Evans is nearly as protected a fantasy asset as you’ll find, seeking to tie HOF-er Jerry Rice for the NFL document of most consecutive seasons of 1,000 or extra receiving yards approaching 2024. His protected flooring is simply as thrilling. He nonetheless possesses vital upside regardless of his age as the popular goal for returning QB Baker Mayfield. Evans led all Buccaneers receivers with a 23.8% goal fee on routes run within the 2023 season whereas additionally main the staff in complete targets, pink zone targets and finish zone targets.
It wasn’t simply the sheer quantity of alternatives that Evans noticed in his first season with Mayfield at quarterback that made his 2023 marketing campaign particular. He was additionally extremely environment friendly with these alternatives, rating top-12 amongst wideouts (min. 25 targets) with 2.31 yards per route run, 26.7 yards per reception and 43 explosive performs. Fantasy managers could also be cooling on Evans attributable to his age, however his recreation was by no means based mostly on athleticism – it’s been based mostly on ability, refinement and play energy, which ought to translate to yet one more 12 months of worth for fantasy managers.
TE Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys
Present ADP: TE9 (seventh spherical)
Dallas Cowboys tight finish Jake Ferguson’s ascension to fantasy relevance hasn’t been as dramatic as that of Sam LaPorta or Trey McBride. Nevertheless, there’s little question that his alternative as a major goal for QB Dak Prescott may set him up for an additional leap in Yr 3.
Ferguson hasn’t been essentially the most environment friendly tight finish within the league final season. He ranked eighth within the league with a 76.6 receiving grade, fifteenth within the league in fantasy factors per route run and thirteenth in fantasy factors per goal – not something to put in writing residence about, even regardless of his end-of-year end as the general TE9. There was one space the place he stood out, nevertheless, which was the variety of high-value alternatives Ferguson noticed within the pink zone and finish zone.
Amongst all tight ends, Ferguson tied for the third-most pink zone targets (24) whereas tying for the second-most finish zone targets (9). Although touchdowns are a largely unstable stat on a year-to-year foundation, Ferguson is about to play what’s successfully a WR2 function in an offense that ranked sixth within the league with 50 offensive touchdowns whereas main the league in each pink zone performs (247) and goal-line performs (68). Count on this high-powered offense to proceed to funnel by way of Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and their “WR2” Ferguson after neglecting the run recreation this offseason.