1) Falcons QB state of affairs
I’ve come full circle on this one. I get why so many individuals did not just like the number of Michael Penix Jr. eighth general initially, and I do not blame them for feeling that method. The whole lot to that time of the offseason indicated Atlanta was making a push for now, and the Penix transfer appeared to undercut that in an odd method.
If you wish to argue that it did not assist Kirk Cousins get higher, I hear you. However I might push again on the concept it did not make the crew higher. Falcons followers is likely to be programmed a sure method, having seen Matt Ryan begin just about each sport for a decade and a half, and Cousins had been fairly darned sturdy previous to final 12 months’s Achilles harm, however having two quarterbacks able to beginning is seldom a nasty factor.
I am not fearful about Cousins’ psyche. He is seen an excessive amount of (and made an excessive amount of cash) to be thrown off by this. And if Cousins does get harm, the Falcons have professional hope with their Plan B, even when Penix is a rookie — partly as a result of he is a rookie who spent six years and made 45 begins in school.
Look, the NFC South is eminently winnable. The Falcons have a positive schedule. You won’t have appreciated their determination to guard their most essential asset with a layer of insurance coverage, however it’s arduous to disclaim it would are available in fairly useful.
2) Caleb Williams as a direct success
I am not precisely positive the place I might charge the expectations for Caleb Williams in Yr 1, however they really feel excessive to me. Maybe not Andrew Luck-level rookie hype right here, however I imagine expectations are greater for Williams in Yr 1 than they have been for Trevor Lawrence a number of years in the past.
These expectations ought to be muted greater than they appear to be proper now. The previous seven quarterbacks drafted No. 1 general, relationship again to Jameis Winston in 2015, have produced a mean Yr 1 season of roughly 14 begins, 16 landing passes, 11 interceptions and about 3,100 move yards. Fairly tame numbers collectively, even with a number of constructive outliers within the group.
Granted, the Bears provide Williams some issues that few of these rookie QBs had: an thrilling WR corps, the makings of a stable offensive line and different good foundational items on offense, to not point out an improved roster on protection and particular groups. Williams is an distinctive expertise, the likes of which the Bears would possibly by no means have had on the place. The schedule additionally is kind of manageable.
Bears followers would possibly need and count on quick fireworks, however I am right here to say that the present would possibly begin a bit slowly. Issues won’t be as irritating as they have been for Zach Wilson in 2021, however 2023 Jordan Love is likely to be a good comp. Love was a man who waited his flip for 3 full years with the Packers — and but, by means of 9 video games final season, Love regarded peculiar, not likely cranking it up a number of notches till Inexperienced Bay’s playoff push.
I may see Williams trudging by means of a Love-like efficiency within the first half of his rookie season, if not for a bit longer, earlier than issues actually begin to hum. Ultimately they’ll. I am not fearful about Williams’ long-term projection. However I do imagine the stress to be nice instantly comes from a chimerical perspective.