Shortly earlier than midnight on Saturday evening, NCAA media coordinator for March Insanity David Worlock despatched out a telling tweet.
He mentioned that 12 members of the boys’s basketball choice committee had been nonetheless onerous at work assessing which groups belong within the area of 68.
Been doing this since 2006. It is by no means been this difficult for the committee, not solely due to how shut so many of those groups are, however due to the abundance of bid thieves which have knocked groups out. Happening midnight however the work continues. That is why they name it Insanity.
— David Worlock (@DavidWorlock) March 17, 2024
For the previous 5 days, committee members have been holed up in a lodge in Carmel, Indiana, watching video games and analyzing resumes. Right here’s a have a look at the most important selections they have to make earlier than 6 p.m. ET on Sunday when CBS unveils the completed bracket:
1. Who ought to get the ultimate No. 1 seed?
It has been a close to certainty for weeks that UConn, Purdue and Houston would declare three of the NCAA match’s 4 No. 1 seeds.
The much more intriguing race has been for the ultimate No. 1 seed.
Tennessee gave the impression to be within the pole place earlier than a face-plant in opposition to Mississippi State within the SEC quarterfinals despatched the Vols tumbling again to the pack. North Carolina appeared poised to take benefit earlier than its ACC title-game loss to Tenth-seeded NC State left the door cracked open for another person. That somebody might be Iowa State, which vaulted from the fringes of the dialog to the forefront with a shocking 69-41 demolition of Houston to say the Massive 12 match title.
Look on the side-by-side comparability above, and it’d seem that it is a two-team race between North Carolina and Iowa State. The Tar Heels have the most effective profitable share in Quadrant 1 video games. The Cyclones have essentially the most Quadrant 1 victories. They usually each have one fewer loss than Tennessee.
Dig slightly deeper, nonetheless, and it’s doable to make a case for Tennessee as nicely. The Vols have extra prime top-tier wins over groups within the prime 25 of the NET than both North Carolina or Iowa State. In addition they have but to lose to a non-NCAA tournament-bound group assuming Texas A&M hears its title referred to as Sunday.
If the committee is torn, the tiebreaker might be North Carolina’s emphatic 100-92 victory over Tennessee on Nov. 29 in Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels by no means trailed and led by as many as 24 factors early within the second half.
The advantage of the ultimate No. 1 seed isn’t seeing UConn, Houston or Purdue till not less than the Closing 4. North Carolina, Iowa State or Tennessee can be the No. 1 within the West Area with Arizona as its No. 2.
2. Who’s the No. 1 general seed?
UConn coach Dan Hurley made his case for the NCAA match’s No. 1 general seed on Saturday evening after the Huskies claimed the Massive East match title.
Hurley bluntly informed reporters that he feels UConn has “been the most effective group in faculty basketball” because the season started four-plus months in the past.
“Clearly March Insanity subsequent week, who is aware of what goes on there,” Hurley mentioned, “however we have clearly been the most effective program within the nation this yr.”
At its greatest, UConn has undeniably been the nation’s most dominant group. Now the Huskies additionally could boast the strongest resume.
About the identical time that UConn put away Marquette on Saturday night, fellow No. 1 general seed contender Houston suffered a shocking 69-41 Massive 12 title recreation beatdown by the hands of Iowa State. Hours earlier, Purdue crashed out of the Massive Ten match within the semifinals with an extra time loss to Wisconsin.
Whereas UConn’s convention match title could turn into the tiebreaker, the margin between the Huskies (31-3) and Houston and Purdue stays razor-thin. Houston (30-4) gained the nation’s strongest convention outright and has the nation’s most Quadrant 1 wins. Purdue (29-4) nonetheless has the strongest assortment of top-tier victories, 11 wins over NET Prime 25 opponents.
The excellent news for all three contenders is that it hardly issues who truly will get the No. 1 general seed this yr. The large benefit is often the chance to choose your path to the Closing 4, however essentially the most geographically favorable routes for UConn, Purdue and Houston don’t appear to overlap.
UConn’s most popular path in pursuit of a repeat nationwide title figures to be first- and second-round video games in Brooklyn earlier than touring to the East Regional in Boston. Purdue’s most popular path would probably be Indianapolis to the Midwest Regional in Detroit. And Houston’s most popular path seemingly can be Memphis to the South Regional in Dallas.
3. What is going to the committee worth when evaluating the bubble?
The committee faces a harder problem than traditional this yr when attempting to decide on among the many NCAA match’s last at-large contenders.
There’s a surplus of deserving bubble groups after a handful of at-large hopefuls made valiant last-gasp fees and bid thieves shrunk the variety of out there spots.
What which means is that the margin between the groups into consideration for the ultimate spots is even slimmer than ever. The figuring out issue might be what qualities this specific committee values most in a bubble group.
A minimum of as soon as each few years, the committee appears to slam the door on a bubble group that didn’t sufficiently problem itself in non-league play. If that occurs once more Sunday, by far essentially the most susceptible bubble group is Pittsburgh, which assembled the NET’s 343rd-ranked non-conference energy of schedule.
Different committees have been adamant about rewarding bubble groups which have proven they’ll beat NCAA tournament-caliber competitors. If that’s the No. 1 standards for this yr’s committee, then Texas A&M can count on to listen to its title referred to as. The Aggies have piled up extra Quadrant 1 wins than any bubble group. They only additionally occur to have a ridiculous 5 Quadrant 3 losses.
Possibly this committee leans closely on predictive metrics to distinguish amongst bubble groups. That might be welcome information for Michigan State, which is a Prime 25 NET and KenPom group regardless of piling up 14 losses. And it might be disastrous for Seton Corridor, which hovers within the 60s in each metrics regardless of extra spectacular wins and fewer losses than the Spartans.
No matter this committee values, the alternatives might be hotly debated. Count on the ultimate few at-large bids to come back right down to a pool of groups that features Texas A&M, St. John’s, Virginia, Seton Corridor, Indiana State, Pittsburgh and Windfall.
4. Is 28-win Indiana State in or out?
The longest week of Indiana State coach Josh Schertz’s basketball life started final Sunday when the Sycamores misplaced to Drake in a riveting Missouri Valley Convention title recreation.
Since then, Indiana State has helplessly watched as different bubble groups have bolstered their resumes with late fees throughout convention match play.
At 28-6, Indiana State boasts the bubble’s gaudiest report and across-the-board strong rankings within the NCAA’s team-sheet metrics. The Sycamores are thirtieth within the NCAA’s NET rankings, forty first in energy of report and forty fifth at KenPom, all numbers that means this group belongs within the at-large dialog.
Indiana State’s .500 report in opposition to the highest two quadrants is respectable for a bubble group. The Sycamores’ 15-5 report away from house is excellent. It’s a robust resume, aside from the truth that Indiana State has scarcely overwhelmed any NCAA tournament-caliber groups.
The Sycamores are 1-4 in Quadrant 1 video games this season. They misplaced two of the three video games they performed in opposition to Missouri Valley Convention runner-up Drake. Of their solely two video games this season in opposition to power-conference opponents, they misplaced by 22 at Alabama and by 12 at Michigan State.
What ought to the committee do with Indiana State? The fairest possibility can be a visit to Dayton for a First 4 matchup in opposition to a power-conference bubble group. That might give the Sycamores an opportunity to show they belong.
What will the committee do with Indiana State? The Sycamores might be one of many final groups omitted from the sphere, a sufferer of a convention match bid thief or one other bubble group’s last-gasp surge.
5. How does the committee seed injury-plagued Kansas?
Earlier this week, Kansas coach Invoice Self provided an replace on injured All-American candidates Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar.
McCullar, Self mentioned, “most likely may’ve” performed within the Massive 12 match with the bone bruise in his left knee if Kansas’ season was on the road. The lingering damage has bothered McCullar since January and received worse after the 6-foot-7 senior tweaked it earlier this month.
The prognosis for Dickinson’s dislocated proper shoulder is equally optimistic, in response to Self. Medical doctors needed Dickinson to move some exams earlier than clearing him to play, Self mentioned, however the 7-footer “ought to be good to go by subsequent week.”
These are the form of solutions you’d count on Self to present days earlier than Choice Sunday. Now it’s the committee’s job to determine what to make of these responses and whether or not the accidents ought to influence Kansas’ seeding.
At full energy, Kansas (22-10, 10-8) is devoid of depth however harmful. It is a group that owns wins over each UConn and Houston and has additionally overwhelmed the likes of Tennessee, Kentucky and Baylor. The beginning 5 is among the many greatest within the nation. The resume is worthy of no worse than a No. 4 seed regardless of the Jayhawks’ late-season swoon.
With both McCullar and Dickinson at lower than full energy or out of the lineup, Kansas goes from skinny to undermanned. The Jayhawks misplaced by 30 at Houston of their regular-season finale after which by 20 in opposition to Cincinnati within the opening spherical of the Massive 12 match. A top quality No. 13 seed can be drooling at drawing this model of this group.
Whereas top-ranked Cincinnati famously was demoted to a No. 2 seed in 2000 after nationwide participant of the yr Kenyon Martin tore his ACL, subsequent choice committees have been extraordinarily cautious penalizing groups with injured gamers. Count on the committee to take an identical strategy this yr with Kansas.