Opening Day is tomorrow, so you understand what which means — it is time for season predictions!
There are many questions going into the 2024 season: What does Yr 3 of MLB’s expanded playoffs have to supply? Will we proceed to see prime groups knocked out early? And is that this the yr your favourite group will make a run in October? Or your favourite participant will win a postseason award?
Nobody can definitively know what’s in retailer for this season, however that does not cease us from making our greatest guesses. We put 26 of ESPN’s MLB writers, analysts and editors on the spot to foretell what is going to occur in baseball this yr, from the wild-card contenders all the best way as much as the World Sequence champion, plus the MVP, Cy Younger and Rookie of the Yr in each leagues.
For every class, we have requested numerous our voters to clarify their picks. Did they hit the nail on the top or had been they means off their mark? Solely time can inform — and you understand we’ll be circling again to those predictions come October to see how nicely, or poorly, we did.
With out additional ado, let’s have a look at what our consultants needed to say.
Leap to:
AL picks | NL picks | WS picks | AL awards | NL awards
AL East
Our choose: Baltimore Orioles (22 votes)
Who else acquired votes? New York Yankees (2), Tampa Bay Rays (1), Toronto Blue Jays (1)
The O’s are the overwhelming favourite to win the division. How do the Yankees beat them? By getting — and staying — wholesome. Accidents ravaged the Yankees’ 2023 season, and so they may once more in 2024. Gerrit Cole and DJ LeMahieu are already coping with setbacks. LeMahieu may miss the beginning of the season, however he ought to return quickly thereafter. Cole’s standing is extra unclear, and the Yankees’ postseason hopes probably rely on it. Assuming Cole returns someday earlier than the All-Star break and is efficient, the Yankees ought to win sufficient baseball video games to be in rivalry for the division title in the event that they keep wholesome elsewhere. They will rating loads of runs with Juan Soto and Aaron Choose within the lineup.
The Orioles, in the meantime, are loaded with younger expertise — and so they even went out and added ace Corbin Burnes throughout the offseason. They may very well be simply nearly as good, if not higher, than final season’s 101-win membership. However there are harm issues within the rotation behind Burnes and regression is all the time a chance. Their Pythagorean file in 2023 was 94-68, suggesting they overperformed by seven victories. It needs to be an in depth race. — Jorge Castillo
AL Central
Our choose: Minnesota Twins (16 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Detroit Tigers (5), Cleveland Guardians (3), Kansas Metropolis Royals (2)
4 of the 5 AL Central groups acquired votes to win the division. Why will the Twins take it? The Twins have the clearest path to a division title of any group within the American League, however do not simply take my phrase for it. At ESPN BET, Minnesota is the one AL membership listed as an odds-on favourite to win its division (-115). The quartet of Edouard Julien, Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis atop that lineup guarantees to be fierce (assuming good well being, in fact), whereas Pablo Lopez has emerged as a possible Cy Younger favourite within the league. Suffice it to say, the Twins have extra top-end expertise on their roster than some other membership within the AL Central. — Paul Hembekides
AL West
Our choose: Houston Astros (14 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Texas Rangers (8), Seattle Mariners (4)
Texas acquired eight votes, however Houston acquired 14. How will the Astros beat out their rivals for the division? The pre-All-Star break well being of the Texas rotation is the deciding issue for me in a race between two sturdy groups with out a lot separation between them. The Astros have owned the division for seven years now and there is not any clear purpose to count on them to fall off in 2024. Whereas the Rangers had the superior run differential in 2023, I believe they’re set as much as be a a lot better group after the break — although, by then, they may have some floor to make up. Houston additionally ended up with star nearer Josh Hader, another excuse to lean towards the Astros in a good chase. However it might in no way shock me to see these groups conflict in October for a second straight season. — Bradford Doolittle
How will the Rangers beat Houston? The Astros are literally in an identical boat to the Rangers by way of the accidents befalling their rotation. For Texas, Max Scherzer is predicted to be out till June, Tyler Mahle till July and Jacob deGrom till August. Houston ought to get Justin Verlander again quickly, however Jose Urquidy is out till at the least Might and Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia will not return till midseason. Which leaves the lineups and gloves. And for nearly as good as Houston is — and the Astros stay an excellent baseball group — no lineup within the AL can match the Rangers’, and their protection final postseason was immaculate. Add in Seattle, and the AL West goes to be one whale of a race. — Jeff Passan
Why do you suppose the Mariners will win? The Mariners missed out on profitable the division final season by simply two video games, so that they had been very a lot on par with the Astros and Rangers. Now, after three consecutive profitable seasons, they’re able to take one other step. As normal, Seattle did not spend some huge cash within the offseason, however their pickups on offense have an opportunity to be sneaky good. Jorge Polanco, Mitch Haniger and Mitch Garver present veteran and playoff expertise for a group that wants it. I am additionally selecting Julio Rodriguez to win MVP.
However let’s not bury the lede right here: Seattle’s power is on the mound, the place they added two extra abilities in righties Ryne Stanek and Gregory Santos — although, the latter is sidelined in the meanwhile. The Mariners’ greatest power is their rotation, and, at the least to start out the season, it is the very best within the division. — Jesse Rogers
AL wild playing cards
Our picks: New York Yankees (17 votes), Seattle Mariners (14), Texas Rangers (13)
Who else acquired votes? Houston Astros (12), Tampa Bay Rays (11), Toronto Blue Jays (6), Baltimore Orioles (3), Boston Purple Sox (2)
Lately, the Rays have gotten a majority of votes from our panel to make the playoffs. Why are they on the skin wanting on this yr? I consider the Rays as a group with wonderful huge league depth and minor league stock that additionally places gamers in roles the place they will succeed. It is by means of these items that the Rays make the most of each little edge — platooning non-star gamers, boasting numerous multi-positional sorts, having diversified seems out of the bullpen — to squeeze wins out of an extended season when every little benefit may imply a win or two. This results in them typically beating expectations within the common season.
Nevertheless, due to their payroll limitations, they typically haven’t got the aces or a number of star place gamers you see on groups that persistently win playoff sequence. That mixed with a down-cycle of star gamers (Tyler Glasnow was traded, Shane McClanahan is damage), the AL East being nearly as good as ever and the Rays having a good variety of accidents proper now are causes for the doubts this March. — Kiley McDaniel
Solely two voters selected the Purple Sox and also you had been one in all them. Why? Little question, on paper, the Purple Sox appear like the weakest group in a robust division, however my decidedly unscientific method to this train is that we’ll have some playoff turnover — as a result of we all the time do. A pair surprises needed to be so as, and the Purple Sox have an opportunity to be higher than everybody believes. Doolittle’s system provides them playoff odds of 21%, the offense scored extra runs than the Blue Jays final season — and is likely to be even stronger this yr — and I believe the Rays’ rotation accidents will catch as much as them this season. Sure, the Purple Sox will want their rotation to remain wholesome, but when it does, they will steal a wild card. — David Schoenfield
AL champion
Our choose: Baltimore Orioles (14 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Houston Astros (5), New York Yankees (4), Seattle Mariners (1), Toronto Blue Jays (1), Texas Rangers (1)
Why are the Orioles the favourite to win the AL pennant? It is as if evaluators have a look at the identical script after they discuss Baltimore, emphasizing the identical bold-faced phrase: expertise. Within the eyes of plenty of rival execs, the Orioles have far and away essentially the most expertise within the AL, with Adley Rutschman, who’s perceived to be the very best catcher within the sport; Gunnar Henderson, who gained Rookie of the Yr; and Jackson Holliday, who may win Rookie of the Yr if he is known as as much as the massive leagues quickly sufficient. And after we get to the commerce deadline, it is secure to imagine that new proprietor David Rubenstein will green-light the assets wanted for the entrance workplace to plug holes. — Buster Olney
You had been our solely voter to select the reigning World Sequence champions. Make the Rangers’ case. A charitable studying of the Rangers’ beginning rotation is that it’s in flux. Much less charitably, it may very well be disastrous. However that is solely momentary, and I believe the lineup is nice sufficient to hold the group by means of the early a part of the season till all of the accidents play themselves out — no assure, however these are predictions, in any case, and never guarantees. Scherzer will probably be again for another (final?) run earlier than the All-Star break and deGrom needs to be again in August. Within the meantime, the Rangers will preserve mashing, and supervisor Bruce Bochy will combine and match like he all the time does. Similar to final season, they will peak when it issues most. — Tim Keown
NL East
Our choose: Atlanta Braves (24 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Philadelphia Phillies (2)
Why do you suppose this would be the Phillies’ yr to usurp the Braves atop the division? The Phillies couldn’t match the Braves throughout the common season the previous two years, however then they topped them twice in October, which issues extra. Atlanta figures to play it safer throughout the common season and enter October better-rested than it has in previous seasons. Philadelphia has the higher rotation and bullpen and may edge Atlanta out as every group approaches 100 wins. — Eric Karabell
NL Central
Our choose: Chicago Cubs (16 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Cincinnati Reds (6), St. Louis Cardinals (2), Milwaukee Brewers (2)
The Cubs are the favourite to win the NL Central, regardless of lacking the playoffs final yr. What makes this yr completely different? It is a robust name between Cincinnati and Chicago to win the division, however the Reds have some accidents to start out the season and the Cubs have a extra skilled roster, so that they’re my choose to win it. However it’s going to go all the way down to the wire. On the floor, the Cubs gained 83 video games final season with a plus-96 run differential, and with almost the identical roster this yr and new supervisor Craig Counsell within the fold, they’re much less more likely to go away wins on the desk. A key pickup this offseason was Japanese pitcher Shota Imanaga, and he, together with the group’s deep farm system, will undoubtedly be wanted to contribute on the mound this yr. The Cubs are void of a number of true, top-end stars however have a great 40-man roster to endure the grind of an extended season. — Rogers
Make the case for the Reds to take the division. I mission the Nationwide League Central to be essentially the most wide-open division. I believe 86 wins may even internet a group the division title, and final yr, the Reds had been simply 4 wins shy of that quantity. Granted, I felt higher in regards to the Reds’ absurd prospect depth earlier than Noelvi Marte’s suspension and Matt McLain’s harm, however they nonetheless have each the uncooked expertise and prospect capital to make the trades they’d have to bolster their playoff possibilities. In the event that they made an enormous transfer for a pitcher, I believe they’d be broadly checked out as extra of a division favourite.— Tristan Cockcroft
NL West
Our choose: Los Angeles Dodgers (26 votes)
Not a single voter picked one other group to win the NL West. Why is that this a lock for the Dodgers? As a result of we have seen them do it with a lot much less. The 2024 Dodgers are imperfect — by way of their rotation stability and infield protection, particularly — however nowhere close to as flawed as they had been final yr, after they reeled off 100 wins and claimed their tenth division title in 11 years. They’ve already mastered the six-month common season, and now they’re the deepest and most proficient group in the complete sport, not to mention the NL West. There have been years when the Dodgers have been weak by means of this run. This isn’t a type of. — Alden Gonzalez
NL wild playing cards
Our picks: Philadelphia Phillies (23 votes), Arizona Diamondbacks (19), San Francisco Giants (16)
Who else acquired votes? San Diego Padres (8), Chicago Cubs (7), Atlanta Braves (2), Cincinnati Reds (2), St. Louis Cardinals (1)
You picked all three of the groups that had been the favorites amongst our voters to be a wild card. Why will that be the NL wild-card subject? Effectively, first, I am a little bit shocked that the Giants had been such a well-liked choose. I consider them extra as a sleeper candidate, although I picked them, as nicely. This is the dynamic within the NL, circa 2024. You’ve the Braves and Dodgers on their very own stage with nobody else projected to be wherever close to them. On the different finish of the spectrum, you will have the Rockies and Nationals forecasted to be the league’s punching luggage. Then you will have the Phillies, who appear like the clear No. 3 within the league. Since Philly shares a division with Atlanta, that marks them because the probably of the NL’s wild-card candidates.
After that, there isn’t any eventual end-of-season order of the opposite 10 groups that will shock me. I just like the Diamondbacks as a group on the rise, one which needs to be higher than final season even when they do not catch lightning in a bottle once more at playoff time. And I just like the Giants for the standard bulk of their offseason acquisitions, the potential of Jung Hoo Lee to be a catalyst atop their lineup, their total depth and particularly the potential of a rotation led by an enormous three of Logan Webb, Blake Snell and the electrical Kyle Harrison. — Doolittle
How can the Padres disrupt the wild-card race to interchange one of many favored groups? The third wild-card spot within the NL may go to a half dozen groups, however I am taking the Padres primarily based on two elements: 1) Their beginning pitching is fairly good, particularly with Dylan Stop added to that rotation to go along with Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish, and a couple of) They nonetheless have a dynamic lineup 1-5. I believe Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. are poised for his or her greatest years ever. Even with the departure of Soto, I nonetheless suppose the Padres can rating sufficient runs, and mixed with their nice beginning pitching, they’ve an opportunity to safe a wild card within the loaded NL subject. They could have had too many mouths to feed final yr — however this yr, with fewer mouths to feed, I believe they will be higher. — Tim Kurkjian
NL champion
Our choose: Atlanta Braves (14 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Los Angeles Dodgers (6), Philadelphia Phillies (4), San Diego Padres (1), San Francisco Giants (1)
Make the case for the Dodgers to beat out the Braves for the pennant. The Braves and Dodgers are clearly the category of the NL proper now. Each have had their successes and failures in current playoff sequence, so as an alternative of specializing in if they are going to have the magical factor it takes to win within the postseason in 2024, I select to concentrate on how a lot better they will get within the second half. The Dodgers’ rotation depth may get a lot better (Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin Might, and Emmet Sheehan are all on the injured record proper now) and so they have a top-10 farm system, whereas Atlanta’s is within the backside 5. Loads will occur between now and the playoffs, however the Dodgers have much more room for error to repair what goes flawed. — McDaniel
Make the case for the Phillies. The Phillies will come into this season pushed by their shocking exit from final yr’s playoffs. On the time they had been knocked out, it appeared that they’d all the weather of a championship group, with a deep and highly effective lineup, an improved protection and a dominant postseason ace in Zack Wheeler — so their loss by the hands of the Diamondbacks should’ve gnawed at them possibly much more than dropping the World Sequence in 2022 did. That is going to be the chip on their shoulder all season, and so they know from current expertise that they are often nearly as good or higher than the Braves. The Phillies are an extremely harmful, extremely centered group, and so they’re aching to take the subsequent step. — Olney
World Sequence champion
Our choose: Atlanta Braves (13 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Baltimore Orioles (4), Los Angeles Dodgers (4), Philadelphia Phillies (2), Seattle Mariners (1), New York Yankees (1), Toronto Blue Jays (1)
Why will this be the Braves’ yr? This group is just too good and too highly effective to go down within the division sequence for a 3rd straight season — though avoiding Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola is likely to be a good suggestion. Crucial purpose why this would be the Braves’ yr is that the pitching employees is the very best one they’ve had this decade, a lot better and deeper than the 2021 World Sequence winners. The bullpen seems extraordinarily sturdy, which is able to permit supervisor Brian Snitker to again off his starters some within the common season to maintain them wholesome for October. And in Spencer Strider — proprietor of a brand new curveball — and Max Fried, they’ve a 1-2 punch that rivals any tandem in baseball and might shut down any lineup, together with the Dodgers. — Schoenfield
Regardless of their historic offseason, the Dodgers aren’t our favourite to win the title — however they’re yours. Why? All of us consider the Dodgers as that regular-season machine, a potential 100-win dynamo that has struggled at occasions to clear the postseason hurdle (nicely, apart from the shortened 2020 marketing campaign), however I truly see their 2024 roster as one in all their best-aligned for brief playoff sequence of any from the previous decade. Their offense is rock-solid, and have a look at that potential October rotation, assuming all goes nicely on the well being entrance: Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Kershaw and Bobby Miller, with Buehler, Might, Sheehan and Gavin Stone accessible as insurance coverage insurance policies if any of the entrance 4 is absent. What number of groups can declare a comparable postseason employees, at the least this far out? — Cockcroft
You had been the lone voter to decide on the Blue Jays to win the AL East, the pennant after which the World Sequence. Clarify why you are all-in on them. I’ve caught with the Jays since I noticed the approaching wave of kids of a few of the nice Corridor of Fame gamers I performed in opposition to. The Jays are in an attention-grabbing candy spot — they’ve younger expertise who at the moment are additionally skilled. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is clearly on a mission in 2024, understanding he wasn’t at his greatest a yr in the past, and so they nonetheless made the playoffs. Their rotation has plenty of arms and whereas each group’s pitching employees wants higher well being, the Blue Jays’ pitching was additionally a power final yr. They’ll win on the street, they beat up lefties and righties with out delight or prejudice and half their group is so athletic that they may very well be enjoying in March Insanity (and they’re in all probability nonetheless younger sufficient to be on a university group).
Now, the subsequent step for them, which I imagine they are going to take, is to carry out higher of their division. They proved they will beat the groups they’re purported to beat, however now, they should beat the favorites to totally understand they are the favorites. — Doug Glanville
AL MVP
Our choose: Juan Soto (8 votes), Julio Rodriguez (8)
Who else acquired votes? Gunnar Henderson (3), Adley Rutschman (2), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1), Bobby Witt Jr. (1), Corey Seager (1), Yordan Alvarez (1), Jose Ramirez (1)
Our voters had been tied between Soto and Rodriguez for AL MVP. Make the case for Soto. It is arduous to consider a greater match than Soto in Yankee pinstripes, enjoying beneath the brilliant lights of the largest metropolis in America. It virtually feels as if he was born for this. It can energize him, as will being solely a season away from his extremely anticipated run at free company. That, and the brief right-field porch in Yankee Stadium, may result in the very best offensive season of his profession. And with regards to separating himself from J-Rod, Soto can have one essential factor in his favor: a fellow celebrity in Choose batting behind him. — Gonzalez
Make the case for J-Rod. It got here all the way down to Soto and Rodriguez for me, too. I initially was going to select Soto — I additionally suppose he’ll have a monster season enjoying at Yankee Stadium, capitalizing on that brief porch and feeding off enjoying in New York. However I additionally suppose Choose goes to have one other MVP-caliber yr, which made me surprise if Soto and Choose would truly damage one another’s possibilities for the award. That led me to Rodriguez, a younger celebrity who nearly everyone believes will take the subsequent step this season, together with me. The Mariners needs to be actually good — that rotation is likely to be the very best within the majors — and Rodriguez needs to be the clear greatest participant. That mixture made him my choose. — Castillo
AL Rookie of the Yr
Our choose: Wyatt Langford (20 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Jackson Holliday (5), Evan Carter (1)
Langford simply made the Rangers’ Opening Day roster, however he’s already our favourite to win Rookie of the Yr. What makes him so particular? Langford’s teammates already are marveling on the entirety of the package deal he offers, from the linebacker’s physique — 6-foot-1, 225 kilos — to the house run energy to the superior swing selections. That he slipped to the fourth total choose in final July’s draft was as a lot a perform of the all-time class 2023 could also be, however fortune smiled on the Rangers, and beneath normal supervisor Chris Younger, their willingness to be aggressive is a guiding mild. They may’ve tried to govern Langford’s service time. As an alternative, they’re attempting to win one other World Sequence. — Passan
AL Cy Younger
Our choose: Corbin Burnes (10 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Pablo Lopez (6), Luis Castillo (4), Tarik Skubal (4), Kevin Gausman (1), Framber Valdez (1)
A number of AL pitchers obtained 4 or extra votes to win Cy Younger, with Burnes getting essentially the most at 10. Why was he your choose? Burnes is a quite stylish choose as a result of he gained the NL Cy Younger award for the 2021 Brewers, and his new group, the ascending Orioles, are coming off a 101-win season. Burnes is fourth in innings pitched over the previous three seasons and second in strikeouts, and with Gerrit Cole sidelined and Shohei Ohtani within the NL, he appears nearly as good a selection as any. — Karabell
Lopez was subsequent at 6 votes. Clarify why you selected him. Yr 1 in Minnesota was a rip-roaring success for Lopez, who elevated his strikeout whole by 60 from 2022 to ’23 (174 to 234) in the identical variety of begins (32). The league batted .184 and slugged .303 in opposition to his sweeper and curveball, which sported a ridiculous 96-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Along with his arrow pointing up, Lopez is poised for a 200-inning, 250-strikeout season that culminates within the Twins’ first Cy Younger winner since Johan Santana in 2006. — Hembekides
NL MVP
Our choose: Mookie Betts (14 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Ronald Acuna Jr. (6), Fernando Tatis Jr. (3), Freddie Freeman (2), BOF – Betts/Ohtani/Freeman (1)
Acuna isn’t our voters’ favourite right here, however you had been one in all six individuals to select him to win his second consecutive MVP. Clarify your reasoning. Acuna’s 40/73 season — 41 residence runs, 73 stolen bases — was statistically historic and helped him to his unanimous MVP choice in 2023, however here is what everyone seems to be overlooking: He would have been the MVP even when he had stolen 13 bases as an alternative of 73. He was the very best hitter within the NL, slashing .337/.416/.596, and he can do this once more for a transparent purpose: He lower his strikeout fee from 23.6% in 2021 and 2022 to 11.4% final yr. That is an actual, repeatable ability and it made him not solely one of many recreation’s prime sluggers however the sixth-most-difficult participant to strike out. He might not run as a lot this yr after tweaking his knee in spring coaching, however one other .330, 40-homer season means he can take residence MVP honors. — Schoenfield
BOF?! We will want to listen to your reasoning on this one. We’ve got to pause and understand what the Dodgers have put collectively on the prime of the order. It’s a three-headed legendary spirit animal that may accomplish something you’ll be able to think about on a baseball subject. You might subject a complete group with these three gamers. Betts may play 3B, SS, 2B, LF, RF, CF, C, in addition to be supervisor, hitting coach and GM. Ohtani may DH, pitch, break Statcast, hit or pitch baseballs in orbit and make peace with our Martian buddies (since he hit a baseball there for diplomatic functions). Freeman may simply fear about selecting up any unhealthy throws on his approach to 200 hits whereas working for mayor, governor and finally, president. (He has my vote.) These aren’t simply three wonderful gamers — they’re generational abilities.
I believed it may very well be enjoyable to trace the wonderful issues they do that season beneath the BOF umbrella. Since every part has a metric now, we should always personalize it. We may slap new adjectives on it and name it Ohtanic, Bettsositic and Freemantic, however higher to mix it into one metric, BOF, due to their potential altogether. Neglect MVP for a season, since there’s a good shot one in all these guys will win it — and the one purpose they might not (outdoors of Acuna additionally being legendary, and Soto being within the AL now) is as a result of they preserve knocking into one another. I want I may return and be a nine-hole hitter in entrance of these three. By no means once more would the 9 gap be so wonderful. Whoever hits ninth may rating 250 runs by simply respiration. — Glanville
NL Rookie of the Yr
Our choose: Jackson Chourio (9)
Who else acquired votes? Yoshinobu Yamamoto (6 votes), Jung Hoo Lee (6), Jackson Merrill (2), Paul Skenes (2), Shota Imanaga (1)
Why is Chourio your selection for Rookie of the Yr? I bear in mind when Chourio was having his breakout season in 2022 and I requested a professional scout how excessive up I ought to transfer him in my midseason prime 50 prospects replace. He argued for prime 10 and once I introduced up some issues, he stated: “Look, the scouts which have seen him suppose he has three 7s.” He means three of his 5 instruments (energy, velocity, arm) are a 7 on the 2-8 scale, or 70 on the 20-80 scale, whereas the opposite two may each be 60s. What number of guys within the huge leagues can match that? It is a single-digit quantity, and it is likely to be as small as three. Add on prime of that how extremely Milwaukee raves about Chourio’s make-up and it is arduous to justify selecting anybody else. — McDaniel
Yamamoto and Lee tied with six votes apiece. What makes Lee your choose? First off, Lee is enjoyable, and baseball wants extra enjoyable. He is quick and flashy and prepared for his second. He had a robust spring coaching, displaying extra energy than anticipated, and he looks like the kind of rookie who can are available and hit the bottom working. He won’t be the very best participant from this rookie class in 5 years — give that to Chourio — however he’ll be the very best one over the subsequent 6 ½ months. — Keown
NL Cy Younger
Our choose: Spencer Strider (15 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Zack Wheeler (7), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (1), Zac Gallen (1), Dylan Stop (1), Max Fried (1)
There’s extra of a transparent favourite within the NL Cy Younger subject than within the AL — and Strider’s it. Why? Primarily based on the standard of his stuff, he’ll in all probability lead the league in strikeouts once more. And primarily based on the standard of his teammates, he’ll in all probability lead the league in wins once more. However the separator may very well be a stronger end. Strider gathered a career-high 186 2/3 innings final season, greater than a 50-inning leap from the yr earlier than. However he appeared to put on down close to the top, posting a 5.67 ERA over his previous six regular-season begins. If not for that, he in all probability would’ve gained the Cy Younger in 2023. — Gonzalez
Opening Day is tomorrow, so you understand what which means — it is time for season predictions!
There are many questions going into the 2024 season: What does Yr 3 of MLB’s expanded playoffs have to supply? Will we proceed to see prime groups knocked out early? And is that this the yr your favourite group will make a run in October? Or your favourite participant will win a postseason award?
Nobody can definitively know what’s in retailer for this season, however that does not cease us from making our greatest guesses. We put 26 of ESPN’s MLB writers, analysts and editors on the spot to foretell what is going to occur in baseball this yr, from the wild-card contenders all the best way as much as the World Sequence champion, plus the MVP, Cy Younger and Rookie of the Yr in each leagues.
For every class, we have requested numerous our voters to clarify their picks. Did they hit the nail on the top or had been they means off their mark? Solely time can inform — and you understand we’ll be circling again to those predictions come October to see how nicely, or poorly, we did.
With out additional ado, let’s have a look at what our consultants needed to say.
Leap to:
AL picks | NL picks | WS picks | AL awards | NL awards
AL East
Our choose: Baltimore Orioles (22 votes)
Who else acquired votes? New York Yankees (2), Tampa Bay Rays (1), Toronto Blue Jays (1)
The O’s are the overwhelming favourite to win the division. How do the Yankees beat them? By getting — and staying — wholesome. Accidents ravaged the Yankees’ 2023 season, and so they may once more in 2024. Gerrit Cole and DJ LeMahieu are already coping with setbacks. LeMahieu may miss the beginning of the season, however he ought to return quickly thereafter. Cole’s standing is extra unclear, and the Yankees’ postseason hopes probably rely on it. Assuming Cole returns someday earlier than the All-Star break and is efficient, the Yankees ought to win sufficient baseball video games to be in rivalry for the division title in the event that they keep wholesome elsewhere. They will rating loads of runs with Juan Soto and Aaron Choose within the lineup.
The Orioles, in the meantime, are loaded with younger expertise — and so they even went out and added ace Corbin Burnes throughout the offseason. They may very well be simply nearly as good, if not higher, than final season’s 101-win membership. However there are harm issues within the rotation behind Burnes and regression is all the time a chance. Their Pythagorean file in 2023 was 94-68, suggesting they overperformed by seven victories. It needs to be an in depth race. — Jorge Castillo
AL Central
Our choose: Minnesota Twins (16 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Detroit Tigers (5), Cleveland Guardians (3), Kansas Metropolis Royals (2)
4 of the 5 AL Central groups acquired votes to win the division. Why will the Twins take it? The Twins have the clearest path to a division title of any group within the American League, however do not simply take my phrase for it. At ESPN BET, Minnesota is the one AL membership listed as an odds-on favourite to win its division (-115). The quartet of Edouard Julien, Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis atop that lineup guarantees to be fierce (assuming good well being, in fact), whereas Pablo Lopez has emerged as a possible Cy Younger favourite within the league. Suffice it to say, the Twins have extra top-end expertise on their roster than some other membership within the AL Central. — Paul Hembekides
AL West
Our choose: Houston Astros (14 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Texas Rangers (8), Seattle Mariners (4)
Texas acquired eight votes, however Houston acquired 14. How will the Astros beat out their rivals for the division? The pre-All-Star break well being of the Texas rotation is the deciding issue for me in a race between two sturdy groups with out a lot separation between them. The Astros have owned the division for seven years now and there is not any clear purpose to count on them to fall off in 2024. Whereas the Rangers had the superior run differential in 2023, I believe they’re set as much as be a a lot better group after the break — although, by then, they may have some floor to make up. Houston additionally ended up with star nearer Josh Hader, another excuse to lean towards the Astros in a good chase. However it might in no way shock me to see these groups conflict in October for a second straight season. — Bradford Doolittle
How will the Rangers beat Houston? The Astros are literally in an identical boat to the Rangers by way of the accidents befalling their rotation. For Texas, Max Scherzer is predicted to be out till June, Tyler Mahle till July and Jacob deGrom till August. Houston ought to get Justin Verlander again quickly, however Jose Urquidy is out till at the least Might and Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia will not return till midseason. Which leaves the lineups and gloves. And for nearly as good as Houston is — and the Astros stay an excellent baseball group — no lineup within the AL can match the Rangers’, and their protection final postseason was immaculate. Add in Seattle, and the AL West goes to be one whale of a race. — Jeff Passan
Why do you suppose the Mariners will win? The Mariners missed out on profitable the division final season by simply two video games, so that they had been very a lot on par with the Astros and Rangers. Now, after three consecutive profitable seasons, they’re able to take one other step. As normal, Seattle did not spend some huge cash within the offseason, however their pickups on offense have an opportunity to be sneaky good. Jorge Polanco, Mitch Haniger and Mitch Garver present veteran and playoff expertise for a group that wants it. I am additionally selecting Julio Rodriguez to win MVP.
However let’s not bury the lede right here: Seattle’s power is on the mound, the place they added two extra abilities in righties Ryne Stanek and Gregory Santos — although, the latter is sidelined in the meanwhile. The Mariners’ greatest power is their rotation, and, at the least to start out the season, it is the very best within the division. — Jesse Rogers
AL wild playing cards
Our picks: New York Yankees (17 votes), Seattle Mariners (14), Texas Rangers (13)
Who else acquired votes? Houston Astros (12), Tampa Bay Rays (11), Toronto Blue Jays (6), Baltimore Orioles (3), Boston Purple Sox (2)
Lately, the Rays have gotten a majority of votes from our panel to make the playoffs. Why are they on the skin wanting on this yr? I consider the Rays as a group with wonderful huge league depth and minor league stock that additionally places gamers in roles the place they will succeed. It is by means of these items that the Rays make the most of each little edge — platooning non-star gamers, boasting numerous multi-positional sorts, having diversified seems out of the bullpen — to squeeze wins out of an extended season when every little benefit may imply a win or two. This results in them typically beating expectations within the common season.
Nevertheless, due to their payroll limitations, they typically haven’t got the aces or a number of star place gamers you see on groups that persistently win playoff sequence. That mixed with a down-cycle of star gamers (Tyler Glasnow was traded, Shane McClanahan is damage), the AL East being nearly as good as ever and the Rays having a good variety of accidents proper now are causes for the doubts this March. — Kiley McDaniel
Solely two voters selected the Purple Sox and also you had been one in all them. Why? Little question, on paper, the Purple Sox appear like the weakest group in a robust division, however my decidedly unscientific method to this train is that we’ll have some playoff turnover — as a result of we all the time do. A pair surprises needed to be so as, and the Purple Sox have an opportunity to be higher than everybody believes. Doolittle’s system provides them playoff odds of 21%, the offense scored extra runs than the Blue Jays final season — and is likely to be even stronger this yr — and I believe the Rays’ rotation accidents will catch as much as them this season. Sure, the Purple Sox will want their rotation to remain wholesome, but when it does, they will steal a wild card. — David Schoenfield
AL champion
Our choose: Baltimore Orioles (14 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Houston Astros (5), New York Yankees (4), Seattle Mariners (1), Toronto Blue Jays (1), Texas Rangers (1)
Why are the Orioles the favourite to win the AL pennant? It is as if evaluators have a look at the identical script after they discuss Baltimore, emphasizing the identical bold-faced phrase: expertise. Within the eyes of plenty of rival execs, the Orioles have far and away essentially the most expertise within the AL, with Adley Rutschman, who’s perceived to be the very best catcher within the sport; Gunnar Henderson, who gained Rookie of the Yr; and Jackson Holliday, who may win Rookie of the Yr if he is known as as much as the massive leagues quickly sufficient. And after we get to the commerce deadline, it is secure to imagine that new proprietor David Rubenstein will green-light the assets wanted for the entrance workplace to plug holes. — Buster Olney
You had been our solely voter to select the reigning World Sequence champions. Make the Rangers’ case. A charitable studying of the Rangers’ beginning rotation is that it’s in flux. Much less charitably, it may very well be disastrous. However that is solely momentary, and I believe the lineup is nice sufficient to hold the group by means of the early a part of the season till all of the accidents play themselves out — no assure, however these are predictions, in any case, and never guarantees. Scherzer will probably be again for another (final?) run earlier than the All-Star break and deGrom needs to be again in August. Within the meantime, the Rangers will preserve mashing, and supervisor Bruce Bochy will combine and match like he all the time does. Similar to final season, they will peak when it issues most. — Tim Keown
NL East
Our choose: Atlanta Braves (24 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Philadelphia Phillies (2)
Why do you suppose this would be the Phillies’ yr to usurp the Braves atop the division? The Phillies couldn’t match the Braves throughout the common season the previous two years, however then they topped them twice in October, which issues extra. Atlanta figures to play it safer throughout the common season and enter October better-rested than it has in previous seasons. Philadelphia has the higher rotation and bullpen and may edge Atlanta out as every group approaches 100 wins. — Eric Karabell
NL Central
Our choose: Chicago Cubs (16 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Cincinnati Reds (6), St. Louis Cardinals (2), Milwaukee Brewers (2)
The Cubs are the favourite to win the NL Central, regardless of lacking the playoffs final yr. What makes this yr completely different? It is a robust name between Cincinnati and Chicago to win the division, however the Reds have some accidents to start out the season and the Cubs have a extra skilled roster, so that they’re my choose to win it. However it’s going to go all the way down to the wire. On the floor, the Cubs gained 83 video games final season with a plus-96 run differential, and with almost the identical roster this yr and new supervisor Craig Counsell within the fold, they’re much less more likely to go away wins on the desk. A key pickup this offseason was Japanese pitcher Shota Imanaga, and he, together with the group’s deep farm system, will undoubtedly be wanted to contribute on the mound this yr. The Cubs are void of a number of true, top-end stars however have a great 40-man roster to endure the grind of an extended season. — Rogers
Make the case for the Reds to take the division. I mission the Nationwide League Central to be essentially the most wide-open division. I believe 86 wins may even internet a group the division title, and final yr, the Reds had been simply 4 wins shy of that quantity. Granted, I felt higher in regards to the Reds’ absurd prospect depth earlier than Noelvi Marte’s suspension and Matt McLain’s harm, however they nonetheless have each the uncooked expertise and prospect capital to make the trades they’d have to bolster their playoff possibilities. In the event that they made an enormous transfer for a pitcher, I believe they’d be broadly checked out as extra of a division favourite.— Tristan Cockcroft
NL West
Our choose: Los Angeles Dodgers (26 votes)
Not a single voter picked one other group to win the NL West. Why is that this a lock for the Dodgers? As a result of we have seen them do it with a lot much less. The 2024 Dodgers are imperfect — by way of their rotation stability and infield protection, particularly — however nowhere close to as flawed as they had been final yr, after they reeled off 100 wins and claimed their tenth division title in 11 years. They’ve already mastered the six-month common season, and now they’re the deepest and most proficient group in the complete sport, not to mention the NL West. There have been years when the Dodgers have been weak by means of this run. This isn’t a type of. — Alden Gonzalez
NL wild playing cards
Our picks: Philadelphia Phillies (23 votes), Arizona Diamondbacks (19), San Francisco Giants (16)
Who else acquired votes? San Diego Padres (8), Chicago Cubs (7), Atlanta Braves (2), Cincinnati Reds (2), St. Louis Cardinals (1)
You picked all three of the groups that had been the favorites amongst our voters to be a wild card. Why will that be the NL wild-card subject? Effectively, first, I am a little bit shocked that the Giants had been such a well-liked choose. I consider them extra as a sleeper candidate, although I picked them, as nicely. This is the dynamic within the NL, circa 2024. You’ve the Braves and Dodgers on their very own stage with nobody else projected to be wherever close to them. On the different finish of the spectrum, you will have the Rockies and Nationals forecasted to be the league’s punching luggage. Then you will have the Phillies, who appear like the clear No. 3 within the league. Since Philly shares a division with Atlanta, that marks them because the probably of the NL’s wild-card candidates.
After that, there isn’t any eventual end-of-season order of the opposite 10 groups that will shock me. I just like the Diamondbacks as a group on the rise, one which needs to be higher than final season even when they do not catch lightning in a bottle once more at playoff time. And I just like the Giants for the standard bulk of their offseason acquisitions, the potential of Jung Hoo Lee to be a catalyst atop their lineup, their total depth and particularly the potential of a rotation led by an enormous three of Logan Webb, Blake Snell and the electrical Kyle Harrison. — Doolittle
How can the Padres disrupt the wild-card race to interchange one of many favored groups? The third wild-card spot within the NL may go to a half dozen groups, however I am taking the Padres primarily based on two elements: 1) Their beginning pitching is fairly good, particularly with Dylan Stop added to that rotation to go along with Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish, and a couple of) They nonetheless have a dynamic lineup 1-5. I believe Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. are poised for his or her greatest years ever. Even with the departure of Soto, I nonetheless suppose the Padres can rating sufficient runs, and mixed with their nice beginning pitching, they’ve an opportunity to safe a wild card within the loaded NL subject. They could have had too many mouths to feed final yr — however this yr, with fewer mouths to feed, I believe they will be higher. — Tim Kurkjian
NL champion
Our choose: Atlanta Braves (14 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Los Angeles Dodgers (6), Philadelphia Phillies (4), San Diego Padres (1), San Francisco Giants (1)
Make the case for the Dodgers to beat out the Braves for the pennant. The Braves and Dodgers are clearly the category of the NL proper now. Each have had their successes and failures in current playoff sequence, so as an alternative of specializing in if they are going to have the magical factor it takes to win within the postseason in 2024, I select to concentrate on how a lot better they will get within the second half. The Dodgers’ rotation depth may get a lot better (Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin Might, and Emmet Sheehan are all on the injured record proper now) and so they have a top-10 farm system, whereas Atlanta’s is within the backside 5. Loads will occur between now and the playoffs, however the Dodgers have much more room for error to repair what goes flawed. — McDaniel
Make the case for the Phillies. The Phillies will come into this season pushed by their shocking exit from final yr’s playoffs. On the time they had been knocked out, it appeared that they’d all the weather of a championship group, with a deep and highly effective lineup, an improved protection and a dominant postseason ace in Zack Wheeler — so their loss by the hands of the Diamondbacks should’ve gnawed at them possibly much more than dropping the World Sequence in 2022 did. That is going to be the chip on their shoulder all season, and so they know from current expertise that they are often nearly as good or higher than the Braves. The Phillies are an extremely harmful, extremely centered group, and so they’re aching to take the subsequent step. — Olney
World Sequence champion
Our choose: Atlanta Braves (13 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Baltimore Orioles (4), Los Angeles Dodgers (4), Philadelphia Phillies (2), Seattle Mariners (1), New York Yankees (1), Toronto Blue Jays (1)
Why will this be the Braves’ yr? This group is just too good and too highly effective to go down within the division sequence for a 3rd straight season — though avoiding Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola is likely to be a good suggestion. Crucial purpose why this would be the Braves’ yr is that the pitching employees is the very best one they’ve had this decade, a lot better and deeper than the 2021 World Sequence winners. The bullpen seems extraordinarily sturdy, which is able to permit supervisor Brian Snitker to again off his starters some within the common season to maintain them wholesome for October. And in Spencer Strider — proprietor of a brand new curveball — and Max Fried, they’ve a 1-2 punch that rivals any tandem in baseball and might shut down any lineup, together with the Dodgers. — Schoenfield
Regardless of their historic offseason, the Dodgers aren’t our favourite to win the title — however they’re yours. Why? All of us consider the Dodgers as that regular-season machine, a potential 100-win dynamo that has struggled at occasions to clear the postseason hurdle (nicely, apart from the shortened 2020 marketing campaign), however I truly see their 2024 roster as one in all their best-aligned for brief playoff sequence of any from the previous decade. Their offense is rock-solid, and have a look at that potential October rotation, assuming all goes nicely on the well being entrance: Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Kershaw and Bobby Miller, with Buehler, Might, Sheehan and Gavin Stone accessible as insurance coverage insurance policies if any of the entrance 4 is absent. What number of groups can declare a comparable postseason employees, at the least this far out? — Cockcroft
You had been the lone voter to decide on the Blue Jays to win the AL East, the pennant after which the World Sequence. Clarify why you are all-in on them. I’ve caught with the Jays since I noticed the approaching wave of kids of a few of the nice Corridor of Fame gamers I performed in opposition to. The Jays are in an attention-grabbing candy spot — they’ve younger expertise who at the moment are additionally skilled. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is clearly on a mission in 2024, understanding he wasn’t at his greatest a yr in the past, and so they nonetheless made the playoffs. Their rotation has plenty of arms and whereas each group’s pitching employees wants higher well being, the Blue Jays’ pitching was additionally a power final yr. They’ll win on the street, they beat up lefties and righties with out delight or prejudice and half their group is so athletic that they may very well be enjoying in March Insanity (and they’re in all probability nonetheless younger sufficient to be on a university group).
Now, the subsequent step for them, which I imagine they are going to take, is to carry out higher of their division. They proved they will beat the groups they’re purported to beat, however now, they should beat the favorites to totally understand they are the favorites. — Doug Glanville
AL MVP
Our choose: Juan Soto (8 votes), Julio Rodriguez (8)
Who else acquired votes? Gunnar Henderson (3), Adley Rutschman (2), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1), Bobby Witt Jr. (1), Corey Seager (1), Yordan Alvarez (1), Jose Ramirez (1)
Our voters had been tied between Soto and Rodriguez for AL MVP. Make the case for Soto. It is arduous to consider a greater match than Soto in Yankee pinstripes, enjoying beneath the brilliant lights of the largest metropolis in America. It virtually feels as if he was born for this. It can energize him, as will being solely a season away from his extremely anticipated run at free company. That, and the brief right-field porch in Yankee Stadium, may result in the very best offensive season of his profession. And with regards to separating himself from J-Rod, Soto can have one essential factor in his favor: a fellow celebrity in Choose batting behind him. — Gonzalez
Make the case for J-Rod. It got here all the way down to Soto and Rodriguez for me, too. I initially was going to select Soto — I additionally suppose he’ll have a monster season enjoying at Yankee Stadium, capitalizing on that brief porch and feeding off enjoying in New York. However I additionally suppose Choose goes to have one other MVP-caliber yr, which made me surprise if Soto and Choose would truly damage one another’s possibilities for the award. That led me to Rodriguez, a younger celebrity who nearly everyone believes will take the subsequent step this season, together with me. The Mariners needs to be actually good — that rotation is likely to be the very best within the majors — and Rodriguez needs to be the clear greatest participant. That mixture made him my choose. — Castillo
AL Rookie of the Yr
Our choose: Wyatt Langford (20 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Jackson Holliday (5), Evan Carter (1)
Langford simply made the Rangers’ Opening Day roster, however he’s already our favourite to win Rookie of the Yr. What makes him so particular? Langford’s teammates already are marveling on the entirety of the package deal he offers, from the linebacker’s physique — 6-foot-1, 225 kilos — to the house run energy to the superior swing selections. That he slipped to the fourth total choose in final July’s draft was as a lot a perform of the all-time class 2023 could also be, however fortune smiled on the Rangers, and beneath normal supervisor Chris Younger, their willingness to be aggressive is a guiding mild. They may’ve tried to govern Langford’s service time. As an alternative, they’re attempting to win one other World Sequence. — Passan
AL Cy Younger
Our choose: Corbin Burnes (10 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Pablo Lopez (6), Luis Castillo (4), Tarik Skubal (4), Kevin Gausman (1), Framber Valdez (1)
A number of AL pitchers obtained 4 or extra votes to win Cy Younger, with Burnes getting essentially the most at 10. Why was he your choose? Burnes is a quite stylish choose as a result of he gained the NL Cy Younger award for the 2021 Brewers, and his new group, the ascending Orioles, are coming off a 101-win season. Burnes is fourth in innings pitched over the previous three seasons and second in strikeouts, and with Gerrit Cole sidelined and Shohei Ohtani within the NL, he appears nearly as good a selection as any. — Karabell
Lopez was subsequent at 6 votes. Clarify why you selected him. Yr 1 in Minnesota was a rip-roaring success for Lopez, who elevated his strikeout whole by 60 from 2022 to ’23 (174 to 234) in the identical variety of begins (32). The league batted .184 and slugged .303 in opposition to his sweeper and curveball, which sported a ridiculous 96-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Along with his arrow pointing up, Lopez is poised for a 200-inning, 250-strikeout season that culminates within the Twins’ first Cy Younger winner since Johan Santana in 2006. — Hembekides
NL MVP
Our choose: Mookie Betts (14 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Ronald Acuna Jr. (6), Fernando Tatis Jr. (3), Freddie Freeman (2), BOF – Betts/Ohtani/Freeman (1)
Acuna isn’t our voters’ favourite right here, however you had been one in all six individuals to select him to win his second consecutive MVP. Clarify your reasoning. Acuna’s 40/73 season — 41 residence runs, 73 stolen bases — was statistically historic and helped him to his unanimous MVP choice in 2023, however here is what everyone seems to be overlooking: He would have been the MVP even when he had stolen 13 bases as an alternative of 73. He was the very best hitter within the NL, slashing .337/.416/.596, and he can do this once more for a transparent purpose: He lower his strikeout fee from 23.6% in 2021 and 2022 to 11.4% final yr. That is an actual, repeatable ability and it made him not solely one of many recreation’s prime sluggers however the sixth-most-difficult participant to strike out. He might not run as a lot this yr after tweaking his knee in spring coaching, however one other .330, 40-homer season means he can take residence MVP honors. — Schoenfield
BOF?! We will want to listen to your reasoning on this one. We’ve got to pause and understand what the Dodgers have put collectively on the prime of the order. It’s a three-headed legendary spirit animal that may accomplish something you’ll be able to think about on a baseball subject. You might subject a complete group with these three gamers. Betts may play 3B, SS, 2B, LF, RF, CF, C, in addition to be supervisor, hitting coach and GM. Ohtani may DH, pitch, break Statcast, hit or pitch baseballs in orbit and make peace with our Martian buddies (since he hit a baseball there for diplomatic functions). Freeman may simply fear about selecting up any unhealthy throws on his approach to 200 hits whereas working for mayor, governor and finally, president. (He has my vote.) These aren’t simply three wonderful gamers — they’re generational abilities.
I believed it may very well be enjoyable to trace the wonderful issues they do that season beneath the BOF umbrella. Since every part has a metric now, we should always personalize it. We may slap new adjectives on it and name it Ohtanic, Bettsositic and Freemantic, however higher to mix it into one metric, BOF, due to their potential altogether. Neglect MVP for a season, since there’s a good shot one in all these guys will win it — and the one purpose they might not (outdoors of Acuna additionally being legendary, and Soto being within the AL now) is as a result of they preserve knocking into one another. I want I may return and be a nine-hole hitter in entrance of these three. By no means once more would the 9 gap be so wonderful. Whoever hits ninth may rating 250 runs by simply respiration. — Glanville
NL Rookie of the Yr
Our choose: Jackson Chourio (9)
Who else acquired votes? Yoshinobu Yamamoto (6 votes), Jung Hoo Lee (6), Jackson Merrill (2), Paul Skenes (2), Shota Imanaga (1)
Why is Chourio your selection for Rookie of the Yr? I bear in mind when Chourio was having his breakout season in 2022 and I requested a professional scout how excessive up I ought to transfer him in my midseason prime 50 prospects replace. He argued for prime 10 and once I introduced up some issues, he stated: “Look, the scouts which have seen him suppose he has three 7s.” He means three of his 5 instruments (energy, velocity, arm) are a 7 on the 2-8 scale, or 70 on the 20-80 scale, whereas the opposite two may each be 60s. What number of guys within the huge leagues can match that? It is a single-digit quantity, and it is likely to be as small as three. Add on prime of that how extremely Milwaukee raves about Chourio’s make-up and it is arduous to justify selecting anybody else. — McDaniel
Yamamoto and Lee tied with six votes apiece. What makes Lee your choose? First off, Lee is enjoyable, and baseball wants extra enjoyable. He is quick and flashy and prepared for his second. He had a robust spring coaching, displaying extra energy than anticipated, and he looks like the kind of rookie who can are available and hit the bottom working. He won’t be the very best participant from this rookie class in 5 years — give that to Chourio — however he’ll be the very best one over the subsequent 6 ½ months. — Keown
NL Cy Younger
Our choose: Spencer Strider (15 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Zack Wheeler (7), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (1), Zac Gallen (1), Dylan Stop (1), Max Fried (1)
There’s extra of a transparent favourite within the NL Cy Younger subject than within the AL — and Strider’s it. Why? Primarily based on the standard of his stuff, he’ll in all probability lead the league in strikeouts once more. And primarily based on the standard of his teammates, he’ll in all probability lead the league in wins once more. However the separator may very well be a stronger end. Strider gathered a career-high 186 2/3 innings final season, greater than a 50-inning leap from the yr earlier than. However he appeared to put on down close to the top, posting a 5.67 ERA over his previous six regular-season begins. If not for that, he in all probability would’ve gained the Cy Younger in 2023. — Gonzalez
Opening Day is tomorrow, so you understand what which means — it is time for season predictions!
There are many questions going into the 2024 season: What does Yr 3 of MLB’s expanded playoffs have to supply? Will we proceed to see prime groups knocked out early? And is that this the yr your favourite group will make a run in October? Or your favourite participant will win a postseason award?
Nobody can definitively know what’s in retailer for this season, however that does not cease us from making our greatest guesses. We put 26 of ESPN’s MLB writers, analysts and editors on the spot to foretell what is going to occur in baseball this yr, from the wild-card contenders all the best way as much as the World Sequence champion, plus the MVP, Cy Younger and Rookie of the Yr in each leagues.
For every class, we have requested numerous our voters to clarify their picks. Did they hit the nail on the top or had been they means off their mark? Solely time can inform — and you understand we’ll be circling again to those predictions come October to see how nicely, or poorly, we did.
With out additional ado, let’s have a look at what our consultants needed to say.
Leap to:
AL picks | NL picks | WS picks | AL awards | NL awards
AL East
Our choose: Baltimore Orioles (22 votes)
Who else acquired votes? New York Yankees (2), Tampa Bay Rays (1), Toronto Blue Jays (1)
The O’s are the overwhelming favourite to win the division. How do the Yankees beat them? By getting — and staying — wholesome. Accidents ravaged the Yankees’ 2023 season, and so they may once more in 2024. Gerrit Cole and DJ LeMahieu are already coping with setbacks. LeMahieu may miss the beginning of the season, however he ought to return quickly thereafter. Cole’s standing is extra unclear, and the Yankees’ postseason hopes probably rely on it. Assuming Cole returns someday earlier than the All-Star break and is efficient, the Yankees ought to win sufficient baseball video games to be in rivalry for the division title in the event that they keep wholesome elsewhere. They will rating loads of runs with Juan Soto and Aaron Choose within the lineup.
The Orioles, in the meantime, are loaded with younger expertise — and so they even went out and added ace Corbin Burnes throughout the offseason. They may very well be simply nearly as good, if not higher, than final season’s 101-win membership. However there are harm issues within the rotation behind Burnes and regression is all the time a chance. Their Pythagorean file in 2023 was 94-68, suggesting they overperformed by seven victories. It needs to be an in depth race. — Jorge Castillo
AL Central
Our choose: Minnesota Twins (16 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Detroit Tigers (5), Cleveland Guardians (3), Kansas Metropolis Royals (2)
4 of the 5 AL Central groups acquired votes to win the division. Why will the Twins take it? The Twins have the clearest path to a division title of any group within the American League, however do not simply take my phrase for it. At ESPN BET, Minnesota is the one AL membership listed as an odds-on favourite to win its division (-115). The quartet of Edouard Julien, Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis atop that lineup guarantees to be fierce (assuming good well being, in fact), whereas Pablo Lopez has emerged as a possible Cy Younger favourite within the league. Suffice it to say, the Twins have extra top-end expertise on their roster than some other membership within the AL Central. — Paul Hembekides
AL West
Our choose: Houston Astros (14 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Texas Rangers (8), Seattle Mariners (4)
Texas acquired eight votes, however Houston acquired 14. How will the Astros beat out their rivals for the division? The pre-All-Star break well being of the Texas rotation is the deciding issue for me in a race between two sturdy groups with out a lot separation between them. The Astros have owned the division for seven years now and there is not any clear purpose to count on them to fall off in 2024. Whereas the Rangers had the superior run differential in 2023, I believe they’re set as much as be a a lot better group after the break — although, by then, they may have some floor to make up. Houston additionally ended up with star nearer Josh Hader, another excuse to lean towards the Astros in a good chase. However it might in no way shock me to see these groups conflict in October for a second straight season. — Bradford Doolittle
How will the Rangers beat Houston? The Astros are literally in an identical boat to the Rangers by way of the accidents befalling their rotation. For Texas, Max Scherzer is predicted to be out till June, Tyler Mahle till July and Jacob deGrom till August. Houston ought to get Justin Verlander again quickly, however Jose Urquidy is out till at the least Might and Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia will not return till midseason. Which leaves the lineups and gloves. And for nearly as good as Houston is — and the Astros stay an excellent baseball group — no lineup within the AL can match the Rangers’, and their protection final postseason was immaculate. Add in Seattle, and the AL West goes to be one whale of a race. — Jeff Passan
Why do you suppose the Mariners will win? The Mariners missed out on profitable the division final season by simply two video games, so that they had been very a lot on par with the Astros and Rangers. Now, after three consecutive profitable seasons, they’re able to take one other step. As normal, Seattle did not spend some huge cash within the offseason, however their pickups on offense have an opportunity to be sneaky good. Jorge Polanco, Mitch Haniger and Mitch Garver present veteran and playoff expertise for a group that wants it. I am additionally selecting Julio Rodriguez to win MVP.
However let’s not bury the lede right here: Seattle’s power is on the mound, the place they added two extra abilities in righties Ryne Stanek and Gregory Santos — although, the latter is sidelined in the meanwhile. The Mariners’ greatest power is their rotation, and, at the least to start out the season, it is the very best within the division. — Jesse Rogers
AL wild playing cards
Our picks: New York Yankees (17 votes), Seattle Mariners (14), Texas Rangers (13)
Who else acquired votes? Houston Astros (12), Tampa Bay Rays (11), Toronto Blue Jays (6), Baltimore Orioles (3), Boston Purple Sox (2)
Lately, the Rays have gotten a majority of votes from our panel to make the playoffs. Why are they on the skin wanting on this yr? I consider the Rays as a group with wonderful huge league depth and minor league stock that additionally places gamers in roles the place they will succeed. It is by means of these items that the Rays make the most of each little edge — platooning non-star gamers, boasting numerous multi-positional sorts, having diversified seems out of the bullpen — to squeeze wins out of an extended season when every little benefit may imply a win or two. This results in them typically beating expectations within the common season.
Nevertheless, due to their payroll limitations, they typically haven’t got the aces or a number of star place gamers you see on groups that persistently win playoff sequence. That mixed with a down-cycle of star gamers (Tyler Glasnow was traded, Shane McClanahan is damage), the AL East being nearly as good as ever and the Rays having a good variety of accidents proper now are causes for the doubts this March. — Kiley McDaniel
Solely two voters selected the Purple Sox and also you had been one in all them. Why? Little question, on paper, the Purple Sox appear like the weakest group in a robust division, however my decidedly unscientific method to this train is that we’ll have some playoff turnover — as a result of we all the time do. A pair surprises needed to be so as, and the Purple Sox have an opportunity to be higher than everybody believes. Doolittle’s system provides them playoff odds of 21%, the offense scored extra runs than the Blue Jays final season — and is likely to be even stronger this yr — and I believe the Rays’ rotation accidents will catch as much as them this season. Sure, the Purple Sox will want their rotation to remain wholesome, but when it does, they will steal a wild card. — David Schoenfield
AL champion
Our choose: Baltimore Orioles (14 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Houston Astros (5), New York Yankees (4), Seattle Mariners (1), Toronto Blue Jays (1), Texas Rangers (1)
Why are the Orioles the favourite to win the AL pennant? It is as if evaluators have a look at the identical script after they discuss Baltimore, emphasizing the identical bold-faced phrase: expertise. Within the eyes of plenty of rival execs, the Orioles have far and away essentially the most expertise within the AL, with Adley Rutschman, who’s perceived to be the very best catcher within the sport; Gunnar Henderson, who gained Rookie of the Yr; and Jackson Holliday, who may win Rookie of the Yr if he is known as as much as the massive leagues quickly sufficient. And after we get to the commerce deadline, it is secure to imagine that new proprietor David Rubenstein will green-light the assets wanted for the entrance workplace to plug holes. — Buster Olney
You had been our solely voter to select the reigning World Sequence champions. Make the Rangers’ case. A charitable studying of the Rangers’ beginning rotation is that it’s in flux. Much less charitably, it may very well be disastrous. However that is solely momentary, and I believe the lineup is nice sufficient to hold the group by means of the early a part of the season till all of the accidents play themselves out — no assure, however these are predictions, in any case, and never guarantees. Scherzer will probably be again for another (final?) run earlier than the All-Star break and deGrom needs to be again in August. Within the meantime, the Rangers will preserve mashing, and supervisor Bruce Bochy will combine and match like he all the time does. Similar to final season, they will peak when it issues most. — Tim Keown
NL East
Our choose: Atlanta Braves (24 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Philadelphia Phillies (2)
Why do you suppose this would be the Phillies’ yr to usurp the Braves atop the division? The Phillies couldn’t match the Braves throughout the common season the previous two years, however then they topped them twice in October, which issues extra. Atlanta figures to play it safer throughout the common season and enter October better-rested than it has in previous seasons. Philadelphia has the higher rotation and bullpen and may edge Atlanta out as every group approaches 100 wins. — Eric Karabell
NL Central
Our choose: Chicago Cubs (16 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Cincinnati Reds (6), St. Louis Cardinals (2), Milwaukee Brewers (2)
The Cubs are the favourite to win the NL Central, regardless of lacking the playoffs final yr. What makes this yr completely different? It is a robust name between Cincinnati and Chicago to win the division, however the Reds have some accidents to start out the season and the Cubs have a extra skilled roster, so that they’re my choose to win it. However it’s going to go all the way down to the wire. On the floor, the Cubs gained 83 video games final season with a plus-96 run differential, and with almost the identical roster this yr and new supervisor Craig Counsell within the fold, they’re much less more likely to go away wins on the desk. A key pickup this offseason was Japanese pitcher Shota Imanaga, and he, together with the group’s deep farm system, will undoubtedly be wanted to contribute on the mound this yr. The Cubs are void of a number of true, top-end stars however have a great 40-man roster to endure the grind of an extended season. — Rogers
Make the case for the Reds to take the division. I mission the Nationwide League Central to be essentially the most wide-open division. I believe 86 wins may even internet a group the division title, and final yr, the Reds had been simply 4 wins shy of that quantity. Granted, I felt higher in regards to the Reds’ absurd prospect depth earlier than Noelvi Marte’s suspension and Matt McLain’s harm, however they nonetheless have each the uncooked expertise and prospect capital to make the trades they’d have to bolster their playoff possibilities. In the event that they made an enormous transfer for a pitcher, I believe they’d be broadly checked out as extra of a division favourite.— Tristan Cockcroft
NL West
Our choose: Los Angeles Dodgers (26 votes)
Not a single voter picked one other group to win the NL West. Why is that this a lock for the Dodgers? As a result of we have seen them do it with a lot much less. The 2024 Dodgers are imperfect — by way of their rotation stability and infield protection, particularly — however nowhere close to as flawed as they had been final yr, after they reeled off 100 wins and claimed their tenth division title in 11 years. They’ve already mastered the six-month common season, and now they’re the deepest and most proficient group in the complete sport, not to mention the NL West. There have been years when the Dodgers have been weak by means of this run. This isn’t a type of. — Alden Gonzalez
NL wild playing cards
Our picks: Philadelphia Phillies (23 votes), Arizona Diamondbacks (19), San Francisco Giants (16)
Who else acquired votes? San Diego Padres (8), Chicago Cubs (7), Atlanta Braves (2), Cincinnati Reds (2), St. Louis Cardinals (1)
You picked all three of the groups that had been the favorites amongst our voters to be a wild card. Why will that be the NL wild-card subject? Effectively, first, I am a little bit shocked that the Giants had been such a well-liked choose. I consider them extra as a sleeper candidate, although I picked them, as nicely. This is the dynamic within the NL, circa 2024. You’ve the Braves and Dodgers on their very own stage with nobody else projected to be wherever close to them. On the different finish of the spectrum, you will have the Rockies and Nationals forecasted to be the league’s punching luggage. Then you will have the Phillies, who appear like the clear No. 3 within the league. Since Philly shares a division with Atlanta, that marks them because the probably of the NL’s wild-card candidates.
After that, there isn’t any eventual end-of-season order of the opposite 10 groups that will shock me. I just like the Diamondbacks as a group on the rise, one which needs to be higher than final season even when they do not catch lightning in a bottle once more at playoff time. And I just like the Giants for the standard bulk of their offseason acquisitions, the potential of Jung Hoo Lee to be a catalyst atop their lineup, their total depth and particularly the potential of a rotation led by an enormous three of Logan Webb, Blake Snell and the electrical Kyle Harrison. — Doolittle
How can the Padres disrupt the wild-card race to interchange one of many favored groups? The third wild-card spot within the NL may go to a half dozen groups, however I am taking the Padres primarily based on two elements: 1) Their beginning pitching is fairly good, particularly with Dylan Stop added to that rotation to go along with Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish, and a couple of) They nonetheless have a dynamic lineup 1-5. I believe Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. are poised for his or her greatest years ever. Even with the departure of Soto, I nonetheless suppose the Padres can rating sufficient runs, and mixed with their nice beginning pitching, they’ve an opportunity to safe a wild card within the loaded NL subject. They could have had too many mouths to feed final yr — however this yr, with fewer mouths to feed, I believe they will be higher. — Tim Kurkjian
NL champion
Our choose: Atlanta Braves (14 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Los Angeles Dodgers (6), Philadelphia Phillies (4), San Diego Padres (1), San Francisco Giants (1)
Make the case for the Dodgers to beat out the Braves for the pennant. The Braves and Dodgers are clearly the category of the NL proper now. Each have had their successes and failures in current playoff sequence, so as an alternative of specializing in if they are going to have the magical factor it takes to win within the postseason in 2024, I select to concentrate on how a lot better they will get within the second half. The Dodgers’ rotation depth may get a lot better (Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin Might, and Emmet Sheehan are all on the injured record proper now) and so they have a top-10 farm system, whereas Atlanta’s is within the backside 5. Loads will occur between now and the playoffs, however the Dodgers have much more room for error to repair what goes flawed. — McDaniel
Make the case for the Phillies. The Phillies will come into this season pushed by their shocking exit from final yr’s playoffs. On the time they had been knocked out, it appeared that they’d all the weather of a championship group, with a deep and highly effective lineup, an improved protection and a dominant postseason ace in Zack Wheeler — so their loss by the hands of the Diamondbacks should’ve gnawed at them possibly much more than dropping the World Sequence in 2022 did. That is going to be the chip on their shoulder all season, and so they know from current expertise that they are often nearly as good or higher than the Braves. The Phillies are an extremely harmful, extremely centered group, and so they’re aching to take the subsequent step. — Olney
World Sequence champion
Our choose: Atlanta Braves (13 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Baltimore Orioles (4), Los Angeles Dodgers (4), Philadelphia Phillies (2), Seattle Mariners (1), New York Yankees (1), Toronto Blue Jays (1)
Why will this be the Braves’ yr? This group is just too good and too highly effective to go down within the division sequence for a 3rd straight season — though avoiding Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola is likely to be a good suggestion. Crucial purpose why this would be the Braves’ yr is that the pitching employees is the very best one they’ve had this decade, a lot better and deeper than the 2021 World Sequence winners. The bullpen seems extraordinarily sturdy, which is able to permit supervisor Brian Snitker to again off his starters some within the common season to maintain them wholesome for October. And in Spencer Strider — proprietor of a brand new curveball — and Max Fried, they’ve a 1-2 punch that rivals any tandem in baseball and might shut down any lineup, together with the Dodgers. — Schoenfield
Regardless of their historic offseason, the Dodgers aren’t our favourite to win the title — however they’re yours. Why? All of us consider the Dodgers as that regular-season machine, a potential 100-win dynamo that has struggled at occasions to clear the postseason hurdle (nicely, apart from the shortened 2020 marketing campaign), however I truly see their 2024 roster as one in all their best-aligned for brief playoff sequence of any from the previous decade. Their offense is rock-solid, and have a look at that potential October rotation, assuming all goes nicely on the well being entrance: Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Kershaw and Bobby Miller, with Buehler, Might, Sheehan and Gavin Stone accessible as insurance coverage insurance policies if any of the entrance 4 is absent. What number of groups can declare a comparable postseason employees, at the least this far out? — Cockcroft
You had been the lone voter to decide on the Blue Jays to win the AL East, the pennant after which the World Sequence. Clarify why you are all-in on them. I’ve caught with the Jays since I noticed the approaching wave of kids of a few of the nice Corridor of Fame gamers I performed in opposition to. The Jays are in an attention-grabbing candy spot — they’ve younger expertise who at the moment are additionally skilled. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is clearly on a mission in 2024, understanding he wasn’t at his greatest a yr in the past, and so they nonetheless made the playoffs. Their rotation has plenty of arms and whereas each group’s pitching employees wants higher well being, the Blue Jays’ pitching was additionally a power final yr. They’ll win on the street, they beat up lefties and righties with out delight or prejudice and half their group is so athletic that they may very well be enjoying in March Insanity (and they’re in all probability nonetheless younger sufficient to be on a university group).
Now, the subsequent step for them, which I imagine they are going to take, is to carry out higher of their division. They proved they will beat the groups they’re purported to beat, however now, they should beat the favorites to totally understand they are the favorites. — Doug Glanville
AL MVP
Our choose: Juan Soto (8 votes), Julio Rodriguez (8)
Who else acquired votes? Gunnar Henderson (3), Adley Rutschman (2), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1), Bobby Witt Jr. (1), Corey Seager (1), Yordan Alvarez (1), Jose Ramirez (1)
Our voters had been tied between Soto and Rodriguez for AL MVP. Make the case for Soto. It is arduous to consider a greater match than Soto in Yankee pinstripes, enjoying beneath the brilliant lights of the largest metropolis in America. It virtually feels as if he was born for this. It can energize him, as will being solely a season away from his extremely anticipated run at free company. That, and the brief right-field porch in Yankee Stadium, may result in the very best offensive season of his profession. And with regards to separating himself from J-Rod, Soto can have one essential factor in his favor: a fellow celebrity in Choose batting behind him. — Gonzalez
Make the case for J-Rod. It got here all the way down to Soto and Rodriguez for me, too. I initially was going to select Soto — I additionally suppose he’ll have a monster season enjoying at Yankee Stadium, capitalizing on that brief porch and feeding off enjoying in New York. However I additionally suppose Choose goes to have one other MVP-caliber yr, which made me surprise if Soto and Choose would truly damage one another’s possibilities for the award. That led me to Rodriguez, a younger celebrity who nearly everyone believes will take the subsequent step this season, together with me. The Mariners needs to be actually good — that rotation is likely to be the very best within the majors — and Rodriguez needs to be the clear greatest participant. That mixture made him my choose. — Castillo
AL Rookie of the Yr
Our choose: Wyatt Langford (20 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Jackson Holliday (5), Evan Carter (1)
Langford simply made the Rangers’ Opening Day roster, however he’s already our favourite to win Rookie of the Yr. What makes him so particular? Langford’s teammates already are marveling on the entirety of the package deal he offers, from the linebacker’s physique — 6-foot-1, 225 kilos — to the house run energy to the superior swing selections. That he slipped to the fourth total choose in final July’s draft was as a lot a perform of the all-time class 2023 could also be, however fortune smiled on the Rangers, and beneath normal supervisor Chris Younger, their willingness to be aggressive is a guiding mild. They may’ve tried to govern Langford’s service time. As an alternative, they’re attempting to win one other World Sequence. — Passan
AL Cy Younger
Our choose: Corbin Burnes (10 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Pablo Lopez (6), Luis Castillo (4), Tarik Skubal (4), Kevin Gausman (1), Framber Valdez (1)
A number of AL pitchers obtained 4 or extra votes to win Cy Younger, with Burnes getting essentially the most at 10. Why was he your choose? Burnes is a quite stylish choose as a result of he gained the NL Cy Younger award for the 2021 Brewers, and his new group, the ascending Orioles, are coming off a 101-win season. Burnes is fourth in innings pitched over the previous three seasons and second in strikeouts, and with Gerrit Cole sidelined and Shohei Ohtani within the NL, he appears nearly as good a selection as any. — Karabell
Lopez was subsequent at 6 votes. Clarify why you selected him. Yr 1 in Minnesota was a rip-roaring success for Lopez, who elevated his strikeout whole by 60 from 2022 to ’23 (174 to 234) in the identical variety of begins (32). The league batted .184 and slugged .303 in opposition to his sweeper and curveball, which sported a ridiculous 96-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Along with his arrow pointing up, Lopez is poised for a 200-inning, 250-strikeout season that culminates within the Twins’ first Cy Younger winner since Johan Santana in 2006. — Hembekides
NL MVP
Our choose: Mookie Betts (14 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Ronald Acuna Jr. (6), Fernando Tatis Jr. (3), Freddie Freeman (2), BOF – Betts/Ohtani/Freeman (1)
Acuna isn’t our voters’ favourite right here, however you had been one in all six individuals to select him to win his second consecutive MVP. Clarify your reasoning. Acuna’s 40/73 season — 41 residence runs, 73 stolen bases — was statistically historic and helped him to his unanimous MVP choice in 2023, however here is what everyone seems to be overlooking: He would have been the MVP even when he had stolen 13 bases as an alternative of 73. He was the very best hitter within the NL, slashing .337/.416/.596, and he can do this once more for a transparent purpose: He lower his strikeout fee from 23.6% in 2021 and 2022 to 11.4% final yr. That is an actual, repeatable ability and it made him not solely one of many recreation’s prime sluggers however the sixth-most-difficult participant to strike out. He might not run as a lot this yr after tweaking his knee in spring coaching, however one other .330, 40-homer season means he can take residence MVP honors. — Schoenfield
BOF?! We will want to listen to your reasoning on this one. We’ve got to pause and understand what the Dodgers have put collectively on the prime of the order. It’s a three-headed legendary spirit animal that may accomplish something you’ll be able to think about on a baseball subject. You might subject a complete group with these three gamers. Betts may play 3B, SS, 2B, LF, RF, CF, C, in addition to be supervisor, hitting coach and GM. Ohtani may DH, pitch, break Statcast, hit or pitch baseballs in orbit and make peace with our Martian buddies (since he hit a baseball there for diplomatic functions). Freeman may simply fear about selecting up any unhealthy throws on his approach to 200 hits whereas working for mayor, governor and finally, president. (He has my vote.) These aren’t simply three wonderful gamers — they’re generational abilities.
I believed it may very well be enjoyable to trace the wonderful issues they do that season beneath the BOF umbrella. Since every part has a metric now, we should always personalize it. We may slap new adjectives on it and name it Ohtanic, Bettsositic and Freemantic, however higher to mix it into one metric, BOF, due to their potential altogether. Neglect MVP for a season, since there’s a good shot one in all these guys will win it — and the one purpose they might not (outdoors of Acuna additionally being legendary, and Soto being within the AL now) is as a result of they preserve knocking into one another. I want I may return and be a nine-hole hitter in entrance of these three. By no means once more would the 9 gap be so wonderful. Whoever hits ninth may rating 250 runs by simply respiration. — Glanville
NL Rookie of the Yr
Our choose: Jackson Chourio (9)
Who else acquired votes? Yoshinobu Yamamoto (6 votes), Jung Hoo Lee (6), Jackson Merrill (2), Paul Skenes (2), Shota Imanaga (1)
Why is Chourio your selection for Rookie of the Yr? I bear in mind when Chourio was having his breakout season in 2022 and I requested a professional scout how excessive up I ought to transfer him in my midseason prime 50 prospects replace. He argued for prime 10 and once I introduced up some issues, he stated: “Look, the scouts which have seen him suppose he has three 7s.” He means three of his 5 instruments (energy, velocity, arm) are a 7 on the 2-8 scale, or 70 on the 20-80 scale, whereas the opposite two may each be 60s. What number of guys within the huge leagues can match that? It is a single-digit quantity, and it is likely to be as small as three. Add on prime of that how extremely Milwaukee raves about Chourio’s make-up and it is arduous to justify selecting anybody else. — McDaniel
Yamamoto and Lee tied with six votes apiece. What makes Lee your choose? First off, Lee is enjoyable, and baseball wants extra enjoyable. He is quick and flashy and prepared for his second. He had a robust spring coaching, displaying extra energy than anticipated, and he looks like the kind of rookie who can are available and hit the bottom working. He won’t be the very best participant from this rookie class in 5 years — give that to Chourio — however he’ll be the very best one over the subsequent 6 ½ months. — Keown
NL Cy Younger
Our choose: Spencer Strider (15 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Zack Wheeler (7), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (1), Zac Gallen (1), Dylan Stop (1), Max Fried (1)
There’s extra of a transparent favourite within the NL Cy Younger subject than within the AL — and Strider’s it. Why? Primarily based on the standard of his stuff, he’ll in all probability lead the league in strikeouts once more. And primarily based on the standard of his teammates, he’ll in all probability lead the league in wins once more. However the separator may very well be a stronger end. Strider gathered a career-high 186 2/3 innings final season, greater than a 50-inning leap from the yr earlier than. However he appeared to put on down close to the top, posting a 5.67 ERA over his previous six regular-season begins. If not for that, he in all probability would’ve gained the Cy Younger in 2023. — Gonzalez
Opening Day is tomorrow, so you understand what which means — it is time for season predictions!
There are many questions going into the 2024 season: What does Yr 3 of MLB’s expanded playoffs have to supply? Will we proceed to see prime groups knocked out early? And is that this the yr your favourite group will make a run in October? Or your favourite participant will win a postseason award?
Nobody can definitively know what’s in retailer for this season, however that does not cease us from making our greatest guesses. We put 26 of ESPN’s MLB writers, analysts and editors on the spot to foretell what is going to occur in baseball this yr, from the wild-card contenders all the best way as much as the World Sequence champion, plus the MVP, Cy Younger and Rookie of the Yr in each leagues.
For every class, we have requested numerous our voters to clarify their picks. Did they hit the nail on the top or had been they means off their mark? Solely time can inform — and you understand we’ll be circling again to those predictions come October to see how nicely, or poorly, we did.
With out additional ado, let’s have a look at what our consultants needed to say.
Leap to:
AL picks | NL picks | WS picks | AL awards | NL awards
AL East
Our choose: Baltimore Orioles (22 votes)
Who else acquired votes? New York Yankees (2), Tampa Bay Rays (1), Toronto Blue Jays (1)
The O’s are the overwhelming favourite to win the division. How do the Yankees beat them? By getting — and staying — wholesome. Accidents ravaged the Yankees’ 2023 season, and so they may once more in 2024. Gerrit Cole and DJ LeMahieu are already coping with setbacks. LeMahieu may miss the beginning of the season, however he ought to return quickly thereafter. Cole’s standing is extra unclear, and the Yankees’ postseason hopes probably rely on it. Assuming Cole returns someday earlier than the All-Star break and is efficient, the Yankees ought to win sufficient baseball video games to be in rivalry for the division title in the event that they keep wholesome elsewhere. They will rating loads of runs with Juan Soto and Aaron Choose within the lineup.
The Orioles, in the meantime, are loaded with younger expertise — and so they even went out and added ace Corbin Burnes throughout the offseason. They may very well be simply nearly as good, if not higher, than final season’s 101-win membership. However there are harm issues within the rotation behind Burnes and regression is all the time a chance. Their Pythagorean file in 2023 was 94-68, suggesting they overperformed by seven victories. It needs to be an in depth race. — Jorge Castillo
AL Central
Our choose: Minnesota Twins (16 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Detroit Tigers (5), Cleveland Guardians (3), Kansas Metropolis Royals (2)
4 of the 5 AL Central groups acquired votes to win the division. Why will the Twins take it? The Twins have the clearest path to a division title of any group within the American League, however do not simply take my phrase for it. At ESPN BET, Minnesota is the one AL membership listed as an odds-on favourite to win its division (-115). The quartet of Edouard Julien, Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis atop that lineup guarantees to be fierce (assuming good well being, in fact), whereas Pablo Lopez has emerged as a possible Cy Younger favourite within the league. Suffice it to say, the Twins have extra top-end expertise on their roster than some other membership within the AL Central. — Paul Hembekides
AL West
Our choose: Houston Astros (14 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Texas Rangers (8), Seattle Mariners (4)
Texas acquired eight votes, however Houston acquired 14. How will the Astros beat out their rivals for the division? The pre-All-Star break well being of the Texas rotation is the deciding issue for me in a race between two sturdy groups with out a lot separation between them. The Astros have owned the division for seven years now and there is not any clear purpose to count on them to fall off in 2024. Whereas the Rangers had the superior run differential in 2023, I believe they’re set as much as be a a lot better group after the break — although, by then, they may have some floor to make up. Houston additionally ended up with star nearer Josh Hader, another excuse to lean towards the Astros in a good chase. However it might in no way shock me to see these groups conflict in October for a second straight season. — Bradford Doolittle
How will the Rangers beat Houston? The Astros are literally in an identical boat to the Rangers by way of the accidents befalling their rotation. For Texas, Max Scherzer is predicted to be out till June, Tyler Mahle till July and Jacob deGrom till August. Houston ought to get Justin Verlander again quickly, however Jose Urquidy is out till at the least Might and Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia will not return till midseason. Which leaves the lineups and gloves. And for nearly as good as Houston is — and the Astros stay an excellent baseball group — no lineup within the AL can match the Rangers’, and their protection final postseason was immaculate. Add in Seattle, and the AL West goes to be one whale of a race. — Jeff Passan
Why do you suppose the Mariners will win? The Mariners missed out on profitable the division final season by simply two video games, so that they had been very a lot on par with the Astros and Rangers. Now, after three consecutive profitable seasons, they’re able to take one other step. As normal, Seattle did not spend some huge cash within the offseason, however their pickups on offense have an opportunity to be sneaky good. Jorge Polanco, Mitch Haniger and Mitch Garver present veteran and playoff expertise for a group that wants it. I am additionally selecting Julio Rodriguez to win MVP.
However let’s not bury the lede right here: Seattle’s power is on the mound, the place they added two extra abilities in righties Ryne Stanek and Gregory Santos — although, the latter is sidelined in the meanwhile. The Mariners’ greatest power is their rotation, and, at the least to start out the season, it is the very best within the division. — Jesse Rogers
AL wild playing cards
Our picks: New York Yankees (17 votes), Seattle Mariners (14), Texas Rangers (13)
Who else acquired votes? Houston Astros (12), Tampa Bay Rays (11), Toronto Blue Jays (6), Baltimore Orioles (3), Boston Purple Sox (2)
Lately, the Rays have gotten a majority of votes from our panel to make the playoffs. Why are they on the skin wanting on this yr? I consider the Rays as a group with wonderful huge league depth and minor league stock that additionally places gamers in roles the place they will succeed. It is by means of these items that the Rays make the most of each little edge — platooning non-star gamers, boasting numerous multi-positional sorts, having diversified seems out of the bullpen — to squeeze wins out of an extended season when every little benefit may imply a win or two. This results in them typically beating expectations within the common season.
Nevertheless, due to their payroll limitations, they typically haven’t got the aces or a number of star place gamers you see on groups that persistently win playoff sequence. That mixed with a down-cycle of star gamers (Tyler Glasnow was traded, Shane McClanahan is damage), the AL East being nearly as good as ever and the Rays having a good variety of accidents proper now are causes for the doubts this March. — Kiley McDaniel
Solely two voters selected the Purple Sox and also you had been one in all them. Why? Little question, on paper, the Purple Sox appear like the weakest group in a robust division, however my decidedly unscientific method to this train is that we’ll have some playoff turnover — as a result of we all the time do. A pair surprises needed to be so as, and the Purple Sox have an opportunity to be higher than everybody believes. Doolittle’s system provides them playoff odds of 21%, the offense scored extra runs than the Blue Jays final season — and is likely to be even stronger this yr — and I believe the Rays’ rotation accidents will catch as much as them this season. Sure, the Purple Sox will want their rotation to remain wholesome, but when it does, they will steal a wild card. — David Schoenfield
AL champion
Our choose: Baltimore Orioles (14 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Houston Astros (5), New York Yankees (4), Seattle Mariners (1), Toronto Blue Jays (1), Texas Rangers (1)
Why are the Orioles the favourite to win the AL pennant? It is as if evaluators have a look at the identical script after they discuss Baltimore, emphasizing the identical bold-faced phrase: expertise. Within the eyes of plenty of rival execs, the Orioles have far and away essentially the most expertise within the AL, with Adley Rutschman, who’s perceived to be the very best catcher within the sport; Gunnar Henderson, who gained Rookie of the Yr; and Jackson Holliday, who may win Rookie of the Yr if he is known as as much as the massive leagues quickly sufficient. And after we get to the commerce deadline, it is secure to imagine that new proprietor David Rubenstein will green-light the assets wanted for the entrance workplace to plug holes. — Buster Olney
You had been our solely voter to select the reigning World Sequence champions. Make the Rangers’ case. A charitable studying of the Rangers’ beginning rotation is that it’s in flux. Much less charitably, it may very well be disastrous. However that is solely momentary, and I believe the lineup is nice sufficient to hold the group by means of the early a part of the season till all of the accidents play themselves out — no assure, however these are predictions, in any case, and never guarantees. Scherzer will probably be again for another (final?) run earlier than the All-Star break and deGrom needs to be again in August. Within the meantime, the Rangers will preserve mashing, and supervisor Bruce Bochy will combine and match like he all the time does. Similar to final season, they will peak when it issues most. — Tim Keown
NL East
Our choose: Atlanta Braves (24 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Philadelphia Phillies (2)
Why do you suppose this would be the Phillies’ yr to usurp the Braves atop the division? The Phillies couldn’t match the Braves throughout the common season the previous two years, however then they topped them twice in October, which issues extra. Atlanta figures to play it safer throughout the common season and enter October better-rested than it has in previous seasons. Philadelphia has the higher rotation and bullpen and may edge Atlanta out as every group approaches 100 wins. — Eric Karabell
NL Central
Our choose: Chicago Cubs (16 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Cincinnati Reds (6), St. Louis Cardinals (2), Milwaukee Brewers (2)
The Cubs are the favourite to win the NL Central, regardless of lacking the playoffs final yr. What makes this yr completely different? It is a robust name between Cincinnati and Chicago to win the division, however the Reds have some accidents to start out the season and the Cubs have a extra skilled roster, so that they’re my choose to win it. However it’s going to go all the way down to the wire. On the floor, the Cubs gained 83 video games final season with a plus-96 run differential, and with almost the identical roster this yr and new supervisor Craig Counsell within the fold, they’re much less more likely to go away wins on the desk. A key pickup this offseason was Japanese pitcher Shota Imanaga, and he, together with the group’s deep farm system, will undoubtedly be wanted to contribute on the mound this yr. The Cubs are void of a number of true, top-end stars however have a great 40-man roster to endure the grind of an extended season. — Rogers
Make the case for the Reds to take the division. I mission the Nationwide League Central to be essentially the most wide-open division. I believe 86 wins may even internet a group the division title, and final yr, the Reds had been simply 4 wins shy of that quantity. Granted, I felt higher in regards to the Reds’ absurd prospect depth earlier than Noelvi Marte’s suspension and Matt McLain’s harm, however they nonetheless have each the uncooked expertise and prospect capital to make the trades they’d have to bolster their playoff possibilities. In the event that they made an enormous transfer for a pitcher, I believe they’d be broadly checked out as extra of a division favourite.— Tristan Cockcroft
NL West
Our choose: Los Angeles Dodgers (26 votes)
Not a single voter picked one other group to win the NL West. Why is that this a lock for the Dodgers? As a result of we have seen them do it with a lot much less. The 2024 Dodgers are imperfect — by way of their rotation stability and infield protection, particularly — however nowhere close to as flawed as they had been final yr, after they reeled off 100 wins and claimed their tenth division title in 11 years. They’ve already mastered the six-month common season, and now they’re the deepest and most proficient group in the complete sport, not to mention the NL West. There have been years when the Dodgers have been weak by means of this run. This isn’t a type of. — Alden Gonzalez
NL wild playing cards
Our picks: Philadelphia Phillies (23 votes), Arizona Diamondbacks (19), San Francisco Giants (16)
Who else acquired votes? San Diego Padres (8), Chicago Cubs (7), Atlanta Braves (2), Cincinnati Reds (2), St. Louis Cardinals (1)
You picked all three of the groups that had been the favorites amongst our voters to be a wild card. Why will that be the NL wild-card subject? Effectively, first, I am a little bit shocked that the Giants had been such a well-liked choose. I consider them extra as a sleeper candidate, although I picked them, as nicely. This is the dynamic within the NL, circa 2024. You’ve the Braves and Dodgers on their very own stage with nobody else projected to be wherever close to them. On the different finish of the spectrum, you will have the Rockies and Nationals forecasted to be the league’s punching luggage. Then you will have the Phillies, who appear like the clear No. 3 within the league. Since Philly shares a division with Atlanta, that marks them because the probably of the NL’s wild-card candidates.
After that, there isn’t any eventual end-of-season order of the opposite 10 groups that will shock me. I just like the Diamondbacks as a group on the rise, one which needs to be higher than final season even when they do not catch lightning in a bottle once more at playoff time. And I just like the Giants for the standard bulk of their offseason acquisitions, the potential of Jung Hoo Lee to be a catalyst atop their lineup, their total depth and particularly the potential of a rotation led by an enormous three of Logan Webb, Blake Snell and the electrical Kyle Harrison. — Doolittle
How can the Padres disrupt the wild-card race to interchange one of many favored groups? The third wild-card spot within the NL may go to a half dozen groups, however I am taking the Padres primarily based on two elements: 1) Their beginning pitching is fairly good, particularly with Dylan Stop added to that rotation to go along with Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish, and a couple of) They nonetheless have a dynamic lineup 1-5. I believe Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. are poised for his or her greatest years ever. Even with the departure of Soto, I nonetheless suppose the Padres can rating sufficient runs, and mixed with their nice beginning pitching, they’ve an opportunity to safe a wild card within the loaded NL subject. They could have had too many mouths to feed final yr — however this yr, with fewer mouths to feed, I believe they will be higher. — Tim Kurkjian
NL champion
Our choose: Atlanta Braves (14 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Los Angeles Dodgers (6), Philadelphia Phillies (4), San Diego Padres (1), San Francisco Giants (1)
Make the case for the Dodgers to beat out the Braves for the pennant. The Braves and Dodgers are clearly the category of the NL proper now. Each have had their successes and failures in current playoff sequence, so as an alternative of specializing in if they are going to have the magical factor it takes to win within the postseason in 2024, I select to concentrate on how a lot better they will get within the second half. The Dodgers’ rotation depth may get a lot better (Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin Might, and Emmet Sheehan are all on the injured record proper now) and so they have a top-10 farm system, whereas Atlanta’s is within the backside 5. Loads will occur between now and the playoffs, however the Dodgers have much more room for error to repair what goes flawed. — McDaniel
Make the case for the Phillies. The Phillies will come into this season pushed by their shocking exit from final yr’s playoffs. On the time they had been knocked out, it appeared that they’d all the weather of a championship group, with a deep and highly effective lineup, an improved protection and a dominant postseason ace in Zack Wheeler — so their loss by the hands of the Diamondbacks should’ve gnawed at them possibly much more than dropping the World Sequence in 2022 did. That is going to be the chip on their shoulder all season, and so they know from current expertise that they are often nearly as good or higher than the Braves. The Phillies are an extremely harmful, extremely centered group, and so they’re aching to take the subsequent step. — Olney
World Sequence champion
Our choose: Atlanta Braves (13 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Baltimore Orioles (4), Los Angeles Dodgers (4), Philadelphia Phillies (2), Seattle Mariners (1), New York Yankees (1), Toronto Blue Jays (1)
Why will this be the Braves’ yr? This group is just too good and too highly effective to go down within the division sequence for a 3rd straight season — though avoiding Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola is likely to be a good suggestion. Crucial purpose why this would be the Braves’ yr is that the pitching employees is the very best one they’ve had this decade, a lot better and deeper than the 2021 World Sequence winners. The bullpen seems extraordinarily sturdy, which is able to permit supervisor Brian Snitker to again off his starters some within the common season to maintain them wholesome for October. And in Spencer Strider — proprietor of a brand new curveball — and Max Fried, they’ve a 1-2 punch that rivals any tandem in baseball and might shut down any lineup, together with the Dodgers. — Schoenfield
Regardless of their historic offseason, the Dodgers aren’t our favourite to win the title — however they’re yours. Why? All of us consider the Dodgers as that regular-season machine, a potential 100-win dynamo that has struggled at occasions to clear the postseason hurdle (nicely, apart from the shortened 2020 marketing campaign), however I truly see their 2024 roster as one in all their best-aligned for brief playoff sequence of any from the previous decade. Their offense is rock-solid, and have a look at that potential October rotation, assuming all goes nicely on the well being entrance: Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Kershaw and Bobby Miller, with Buehler, Might, Sheehan and Gavin Stone accessible as insurance coverage insurance policies if any of the entrance 4 is absent. What number of groups can declare a comparable postseason employees, at the least this far out? — Cockcroft
You had been the lone voter to decide on the Blue Jays to win the AL East, the pennant after which the World Sequence. Clarify why you are all-in on them. I’ve caught with the Jays since I noticed the approaching wave of kids of a few of the nice Corridor of Fame gamers I performed in opposition to. The Jays are in an attention-grabbing candy spot — they’ve younger expertise who at the moment are additionally skilled. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is clearly on a mission in 2024, understanding he wasn’t at his greatest a yr in the past, and so they nonetheless made the playoffs. Their rotation has plenty of arms and whereas each group’s pitching employees wants higher well being, the Blue Jays’ pitching was additionally a power final yr. They’ll win on the street, they beat up lefties and righties with out delight or prejudice and half their group is so athletic that they may very well be enjoying in March Insanity (and they’re in all probability nonetheless younger sufficient to be on a university group).
Now, the subsequent step for them, which I imagine they are going to take, is to carry out higher of their division. They proved they will beat the groups they’re purported to beat, however now, they should beat the favorites to totally understand they are the favorites. — Doug Glanville
AL MVP
Our choose: Juan Soto (8 votes), Julio Rodriguez (8)
Who else acquired votes? Gunnar Henderson (3), Adley Rutschman (2), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1), Bobby Witt Jr. (1), Corey Seager (1), Yordan Alvarez (1), Jose Ramirez (1)
Our voters had been tied between Soto and Rodriguez for AL MVP. Make the case for Soto. It is arduous to consider a greater match than Soto in Yankee pinstripes, enjoying beneath the brilliant lights of the largest metropolis in America. It virtually feels as if he was born for this. It can energize him, as will being solely a season away from his extremely anticipated run at free company. That, and the brief right-field porch in Yankee Stadium, may result in the very best offensive season of his profession. And with regards to separating himself from J-Rod, Soto can have one essential factor in his favor: a fellow celebrity in Choose batting behind him. — Gonzalez
Make the case for J-Rod. It got here all the way down to Soto and Rodriguez for me, too. I initially was going to select Soto — I additionally suppose he’ll have a monster season enjoying at Yankee Stadium, capitalizing on that brief porch and feeding off enjoying in New York. However I additionally suppose Choose goes to have one other MVP-caliber yr, which made me surprise if Soto and Choose would truly damage one another’s possibilities for the award. That led me to Rodriguez, a younger celebrity who nearly everyone believes will take the subsequent step this season, together with me. The Mariners needs to be actually good — that rotation is likely to be the very best within the majors — and Rodriguez needs to be the clear greatest participant. That mixture made him my choose. — Castillo
AL Rookie of the Yr
Our choose: Wyatt Langford (20 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Jackson Holliday (5), Evan Carter (1)
Langford simply made the Rangers’ Opening Day roster, however he’s already our favourite to win Rookie of the Yr. What makes him so particular? Langford’s teammates already are marveling on the entirety of the package deal he offers, from the linebacker’s physique — 6-foot-1, 225 kilos — to the house run energy to the superior swing selections. That he slipped to the fourth total choose in final July’s draft was as a lot a perform of the all-time class 2023 could also be, however fortune smiled on the Rangers, and beneath normal supervisor Chris Younger, their willingness to be aggressive is a guiding mild. They may’ve tried to govern Langford’s service time. As an alternative, they’re attempting to win one other World Sequence. — Passan
AL Cy Younger
Our choose: Corbin Burnes (10 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Pablo Lopez (6), Luis Castillo (4), Tarik Skubal (4), Kevin Gausman (1), Framber Valdez (1)
A number of AL pitchers obtained 4 or extra votes to win Cy Younger, with Burnes getting essentially the most at 10. Why was he your choose? Burnes is a quite stylish choose as a result of he gained the NL Cy Younger award for the 2021 Brewers, and his new group, the ascending Orioles, are coming off a 101-win season. Burnes is fourth in innings pitched over the previous three seasons and second in strikeouts, and with Gerrit Cole sidelined and Shohei Ohtani within the NL, he appears nearly as good a selection as any. — Karabell
Lopez was subsequent at 6 votes. Clarify why you selected him. Yr 1 in Minnesota was a rip-roaring success for Lopez, who elevated his strikeout whole by 60 from 2022 to ’23 (174 to 234) in the identical variety of begins (32). The league batted .184 and slugged .303 in opposition to his sweeper and curveball, which sported a ridiculous 96-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Along with his arrow pointing up, Lopez is poised for a 200-inning, 250-strikeout season that culminates within the Twins’ first Cy Younger winner since Johan Santana in 2006. — Hembekides
NL MVP
Our choose: Mookie Betts (14 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Ronald Acuna Jr. (6), Fernando Tatis Jr. (3), Freddie Freeman (2), BOF – Betts/Ohtani/Freeman (1)
Acuna isn’t our voters’ favourite right here, however you had been one in all six individuals to select him to win his second consecutive MVP. Clarify your reasoning. Acuna’s 40/73 season — 41 residence runs, 73 stolen bases — was statistically historic and helped him to his unanimous MVP choice in 2023, however here is what everyone seems to be overlooking: He would have been the MVP even when he had stolen 13 bases as an alternative of 73. He was the very best hitter within the NL, slashing .337/.416/.596, and he can do this once more for a transparent purpose: He lower his strikeout fee from 23.6% in 2021 and 2022 to 11.4% final yr. That is an actual, repeatable ability and it made him not solely one of many recreation’s prime sluggers however the sixth-most-difficult participant to strike out. He might not run as a lot this yr after tweaking his knee in spring coaching, however one other .330, 40-homer season means he can take residence MVP honors. — Schoenfield
BOF?! We will want to listen to your reasoning on this one. We’ve got to pause and understand what the Dodgers have put collectively on the prime of the order. It’s a three-headed legendary spirit animal that may accomplish something you’ll be able to think about on a baseball subject. You might subject a complete group with these three gamers. Betts may play 3B, SS, 2B, LF, RF, CF, C, in addition to be supervisor, hitting coach and GM. Ohtani may DH, pitch, break Statcast, hit or pitch baseballs in orbit and make peace with our Martian buddies (since he hit a baseball there for diplomatic functions). Freeman may simply fear about selecting up any unhealthy throws on his approach to 200 hits whereas working for mayor, governor and finally, president. (He has my vote.) These aren’t simply three wonderful gamers — they’re generational abilities.
I believed it may very well be enjoyable to trace the wonderful issues they do that season beneath the BOF umbrella. Since every part has a metric now, we should always personalize it. We may slap new adjectives on it and name it Ohtanic, Bettsositic and Freemantic, however higher to mix it into one metric, BOF, due to their potential altogether. Neglect MVP for a season, since there’s a good shot one in all these guys will win it — and the one purpose they might not (outdoors of Acuna additionally being legendary, and Soto being within the AL now) is as a result of they preserve knocking into one another. I want I may return and be a nine-hole hitter in entrance of these three. By no means once more would the 9 gap be so wonderful. Whoever hits ninth may rating 250 runs by simply respiration. — Glanville
NL Rookie of the Yr
Our choose: Jackson Chourio (9)
Who else acquired votes? Yoshinobu Yamamoto (6 votes), Jung Hoo Lee (6), Jackson Merrill (2), Paul Skenes (2), Shota Imanaga (1)
Why is Chourio your selection for Rookie of the Yr? I bear in mind when Chourio was having his breakout season in 2022 and I requested a professional scout how excessive up I ought to transfer him in my midseason prime 50 prospects replace. He argued for prime 10 and once I introduced up some issues, he stated: “Look, the scouts which have seen him suppose he has three 7s.” He means three of his 5 instruments (energy, velocity, arm) are a 7 on the 2-8 scale, or 70 on the 20-80 scale, whereas the opposite two may each be 60s. What number of guys within the huge leagues can match that? It is a single-digit quantity, and it is likely to be as small as three. Add on prime of that how extremely Milwaukee raves about Chourio’s make-up and it is arduous to justify selecting anybody else. — McDaniel
Yamamoto and Lee tied with six votes apiece. What makes Lee your choose? First off, Lee is enjoyable, and baseball wants extra enjoyable. He is quick and flashy and prepared for his second. He had a robust spring coaching, displaying extra energy than anticipated, and he looks like the kind of rookie who can are available and hit the bottom working. He won’t be the very best participant from this rookie class in 5 years — give that to Chourio — however he’ll be the very best one over the subsequent 6 ½ months. — Keown
NL Cy Younger
Our choose: Spencer Strider (15 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Zack Wheeler (7), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (1), Zac Gallen (1), Dylan Stop (1), Max Fried (1)
There’s extra of a transparent favourite within the NL Cy Younger subject than within the AL — and Strider’s it. Why? Primarily based on the standard of his stuff, he’ll in all probability lead the league in strikeouts once more. And primarily based on the standard of his teammates, he’ll in all probability lead the league in wins once more. However the separator may very well be a stronger end. Strider gathered a career-high 186 2/3 innings final season, greater than a 50-inning leap from the yr earlier than. However he appeared to put on down close to the top, posting a 5.67 ERA over his previous six regular-season begins. If not for that, he in all probability would’ve gained the Cy Younger in 2023. — Gonzalez
Opening Day is tomorrow, so you understand what which means — it is time for season predictions!
There are many questions going into the 2024 season: What does Yr 3 of MLB’s expanded playoffs have to supply? Will we proceed to see prime groups knocked out early? And is that this the yr your favourite group will make a run in October? Or your favourite participant will win a postseason award?
Nobody can definitively know what’s in retailer for this season, however that does not cease us from making our greatest guesses. We put 26 of ESPN’s MLB writers, analysts and editors on the spot to foretell what is going to occur in baseball this yr, from the wild-card contenders all the best way as much as the World Sequence champion, plus the MVP, Cy Younger and Rookie of the Yr in each leagues.
For every class, we have requested numerous our voters to clarify their picks. Did they hit the nail on the top or had been they means off their mark? Solely time can inform — and you understand we’ll be circling again to those predictions come October to see how nicely, or poorly, we did.
With out additional ado, let’s have a look at what our consultants needed to say.
Leap to:
AL picks | NL picks | WS picks | AL awards | NL awards
AL East
Our choose: Baltimore Orioles (22 votes)
Who else acquired votes? New York Yankees (2), Tampa Bay Rays (1), Toronto Blue Jays (1)
The O’s are the overwhelming favourite to win the division. How do the Yankees beat them? By getting — and staying — wholesome. Accidents ravaged the Yankees’ 2023 season, and so they may once more in 2024. Gerrit Cole and DJ LeMahieu are already coping with setbacks. LeMahieu may miss the beginning of the season, however he ought to return quickly thereafter. Cole’s standing is extra unclear, and the Yankees’ postseason hopes probably rely on it. Assuming Cole returns someday earlier than the All-Star break and is efficient, the Yankees ought to win sufficient baseball video games to be in rivalry for the division title in the event that they keep wholesome elsewhere. They will rating loads of runs with Juan Soto and Aaron Choose within the lineup.
The Orioles, in the meantime, are loaded with younger expertise — and so they even went out and added ace Corbin Burnes throughout the offseason. They may very well be simply nearly as good, if not higher, than final season’s 101-win membership. However there are harm issues within the rotation behind Burnes and regression is all the time a chance. Their Pythagorean file in 2023 was 94-68, suggesting they overperformed by seven victories. It needs to be an in depth race. — Jorge Castillo
AL Central
Our choose: Minnesota Twins (16 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Detroit Tigers (5), Cleveland Guardians (3), Kansas Metropolis Royals (2)
4 of the 5 AL Central groups acquired votes to win the division. Why will the Twins take it? The Twins have the clearest path to a division title of any group within the American League, however do not simply take my phrase for it. At ESPN BET, Minnesota is the one AL membership listed as an odds-on favourite to win its division (-115). The quartet of Edouard Julien, Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis atop that lineup guarantees to be fierce (assuming good well being, in fact), whereas Pablo Lopez has emerged as a possible Cy Younger favourite within the league. Suffice it to say, the Twins have extra top-end expertise on their roster than some other membership within the AL Central. — Paul Hembekides
AL West
Our choose: Houston Astros (14 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Texas Rangers (8), Seattle Mariners (4)
Texas acquired eight votes, however Houston acquired 14. How will the Astros beat out their rivals for the division? The pre-All-Star break well being of the Texas rotation is the deciding issue for me in a race between two sturdy groups with out a lot separation between them. The Astros have owned the division for seven years now and there is not any clear purpose to count on them to fall off in 2024. Whereas the Rangers had the superior run differential in 2023, I believe they’re set as much as be a a lot better group after the break — although, by then, they may have some floor to make up. Houston additionally ended up with star nearer Josh Hader, another excuse to lean towards the Astros in a good chase. However it might in no way shock me to see these groups conflict in October for a second straight season. — Bradford Doolittle
How will the Rangers beat Houston? The Astros are literally in an identical boat to the Rangers by way of the accidents befalling their rotation. For Texas, Max Scherzer is predicted to be out till June, Tyler Mahle till July and Jacob deGrom till August. Houston ought to get Justin Verlander again quickly, however Jose Urquidy is out till at the least Might and Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia will not return till midseason. Which leaves the lineups and gloves. And for nearly as good as Houston is — and the Astros stay an excellent baseball group — no lineup within the AL can match the Rangers’, and their protection final postseason was immaculate. Add in Seattle, and the AL West goes to be one whale of a race. — Jeff Passan
Why do you suppose the Mariners will win? The Mariners missed out on profitable the division final season by simply two video games, so that they had been very a lot on par with the Astros and Rangers. Now, after three consecutive profitable seasons, they’re able to take one other step. As normal, Seattle did not spend some huge cash within the offseason, however their pickups on offense have an opportunity to be sneaky good. Jorge Polanco, Mitch Haniger and Mitch Garver present veteran and playoff expertise for a group that wants it. I am additionally selecting Julio Rodriguez to win MVP.
However let’s not bury the lede right here: Seattle’s power is on the mound, the place they added two extra abilities in righties Ryne Stanek and Gregory Santos — although, the latter is sidelined in the meanwhile. The Mariners’ greatest power is their rotation, and, at the least to start out the season, it is the very best within the division. — Jesse Rogers
AL wild playing cards
Our picks: New York Yankees (17 votes), Seattle Mariners (14), Texas Rangers (13)
Who else acquired votes? Houston Astros (12), Tampa Bay Rays (11), Toronto Blue Jays (6), Baltimore Orioles (3), Boston Purple Sox (2)
Lately, the Rays have gotten a majority of votes from our panel to make the playoffs. Why are they on the skin wanting on this yr? I consider the Rays as a group with wonderful huge league depth and minor league stock that additionally places gamers in roles the place they will succeed. It is by means of these items that the Rays make the most of each little edge — platooning non-star gamers, boasting numerous multi-positional sorts, having diversified seems out of the bullpen — to squeeze wins out of an extended season when every little benefit may imply a win or two. This results in them typically beating expectations within the common season.
Nevertheless, due to their payroll limitations, they typically haven’t got the aces or a number of star place gamers you see on groups that persistently win playoff sequence. That mixed with a down-cycle of star gamers (Tyler Glasnow was traded, Shane McClanahan is damage), the AL East being nearly as good as ever and the Rays having a good variety of accidents proper now are causes for the doubts this March. — Kiley McDaniel
Solely two voters selected the Purple Sox and also you had been one in all them. Why? Little question, on paper, the Purple Sox appear like the weakest group in a robust division, however my decidedly unscientific method to this train is that we’ll have some playoff turnover — as a result of we all the time do. A pair surprises needed to be so as, and the Purple Sox have an opportunity to be higher than everybody believes. Doolittle’s system provides them playoff odds of 21%, the offense scored extra runs than the Blue Jays final season — and is likely to be even stronger this yr — and I believe the Rays’ rotation accidents will catch as much as them this season. Sure, the Purple Sox will want their rotation to remain wholesome, but when it does, they will steal a wild card. — David Schoenfield
AL champion
Our choose: Baltimore Orioles (14 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Houston Astros (5), New York Yankees (4), Seattle Mariners (1), Toronto Blue Jays (1), Texas Rangers (1)
Why are the Orioles the favourite to win the AL pennant? It is as if evaluators have a look at the identical script after they discuss Baltimore, emphasizing the identical bold-faced phrase: expertise. Within the eyes of plenty of rival execs, the Orioles have far and away essentially the most expertise within the AL, with Adley Rutschman, who’s perceived to be the very best catcher within the sport; Gunnar Henderson, who gained Rookie of the Yr; and Jackson Holliday, who may win Rookie of the Yr if he is known as as much as the massive leagues quickly sufficient. And after we get to the commerce deadline, it is secure to imagine that new proprietor David Rubenstein will green-light the assets wanted for the entrance workplace to plug holes. — Buster Olney
You had been our solely voter to select the reigning World Sequence champions. Make the Rangers’ case. A charitable studying of the Rangers’ beginning rotation is that it’s in flux. Much less charitably, it may very well be disastrous. However that is solely momentary, and I believe the lineup is nice sufficient to hold the group by means of the early a part of the season till all of the accidents play themselves out — no assure, however these are predictions, in any case, and never guarantees. Scherzer will probably be again for another (final?) run earlier than the All-Star break and deGrom needs to be again in August. Within the meantime, the Rangers will preserve mashing, and supervisor Bruce Bochy will combine and match like he all the time does. Similar to final season, they will peak when it issues most. — Tim Keown
NL East
Our choose: Atlanta Braves (24 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Philadelphia Phillies (2)
Why do you suppose this would be the Phillies’ yr to usurp the Braves atop the division? The Phillies couldn’t match the Braves throughout the common season the previous two years, however then they topped them twice in October, which issues extra. Atlanta figures to play it safer throughout the common season and enter October better-rested than it has in previous seasons. Philadelphia has the higher rotation and bullpen and may edge Atlanta out as every group approaches 100 wins. — Eric Karabell
NL Central
Our choose: Chicago Cubs (16 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Cincinnati Reds (6), St. Louis Cardinals (2), Milwaukee Brewers (2)
The Cubs are the favourite to win the NL Central, regardless of lacking the playoffs final yr. What makes this yr completely different? It is a robust name between Cincinnati and Chicago to win the division, however the Reds have some accidents to start out the season and the Cubs have a extra skilled roster, so that they’re my choose to win it. However it’s going to go all the way down to the wire. On the floor, the Cubs gained 83 video games final season with a plus-96 run differential, and with almost the identical roster this yr and new supervisor Craig Counsell within the fold, they’re much less more likely to go away wins on the desk. A key pickup this offseason was Japanese pitcher Shota Imanaga, and he, together with the group’s deep farm system, will undoubtedly be wanted to contribute on the mound this yr. The Cubs are void of a number of true, top-end stars however have a great 40-man roster to endure the grind of an extended season. — Rogers
Make the case for the Reds to take the division. I mission the Nationwide League Central to be essentially the most wide-open division. I believe 86 wins may even internet a group the division title, and final yr, the Reds had been simply 4 wins shy of that quantity. Granted, I felt higher in regards to the Reds’ absurd prospect depth earlier than Noelvi Marte’s suspension and Matt McLain’s harm, however they nonetheless have each the uncooked expertise and prospect capital to make the trades they’d have to bolster their playoff possibilities. In the event that they made an enormous transfer for a pitcher, I believe they’d be broadly checked out as extra of a division favourite.— Tristan Cockcroft
NL West
Our choose: Los Angeles Dodgers (26 votes)
Not a single voter picked one other group to win the NL West. Why is that this a lock for the Dodgers? As a result of we have seen them do it with a lot much less. The 2024 Dodgers are imperfect — by way of their rotation stability and infield protection, particularly — however nowhere close to as flawed as they had been final yr, after they reeled off 100 wins and claimed their tenth division title in 11 years. They’ve already mastered the six-month common season, and now they’re the deepest and most proficient group in the complete sport, not to mention the NL West. There have been years when the Dodgers have been weak by means of this run. This isn’t a type of. — Alden Gonzalez
NL wild playing cards
Our picks: Philadelphia Phillies (23 votes), Arizona Diamondbacks (19), San Francisco Giants (16)
Who else acquired votes? San Diego Padres (8), Chicago Cubs (7), Atlanta Braves (2), Cincinnati Reds (2), St. Louis Cardinals (1)
You picked all three of the groups that had been the favorites amongst our voters to be a wild card. Why will that be the NL wild-card subject? Effectively, first, I am a little bit shocked that the Giants had been such a well-liked choose. I consider them extra as a sleeper candidate, although I picked them, as nicely. This is the dynamic within the NL, circa 2024. You’ve the Braves and Dodgers on their very own stage with nobody else projected to be wherever close to them. On the different finish of the spectrum, you will have the Rockies and Nationals forecasted to be the league’s punching luggage. Then you will have the Phillies, who appear like the clear No. 3 within the league. Since Philly shares a division with Atlanta, that marks them because the probably of the NL’s wild-card candidates.
After that, there isn’t any eventual end-of-season order of the opposite 10 groups that will shock me. I just like the Diamondbacks as a group on the rise, one which needs to be higher than final season even when they do not catch lightning in a bottle once more at playoff time. And I just like the Giants for the standard bulk of their offseason acquisitions, the potential of Jung Hoo Lee to be a catalyst atop their lineup, their total depth and particularly the potential of a rotation led by an enormous three of Logan Webb, Blake Snell and the electrical Kyle Harrison. — Doolittle
How can the Padres disrupt the wild-card race to interchange one of many favored groups? The third wild-card spot within the NL may go to a half dozen groups, however I am taking the Padres primarily based on two elements: 1) Their beginning pitching is fairly good, particularly with Dylan Stop added to that rotation to go along with Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish, and a couple of) They nonetheless have a dynamic lineup 1-5. I believe Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. are poised for his or her greatest years ever. Even with the departure of Soto, I nonetheless suppose the Padres can rating sufficient runs, and mixed with their nice beginning pitching, they’ve an opportunity to safe a wild card within the loaded NL subject. They could have had too many mouths to feed final yr — however this yr, with fewer mouths to feed, I believe they will be higher. — Tim Kurkjian
NL champion
Our choose: Atlanta Braves (14 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Los Angeles Dodgers (6), Philadelphia Phillies (4), San Diego Padres (1), San Francisco Giants (1)
Make the case for the Dodgers to beat out the Braves for the pennant. The Braves and Dodgers are clearly the category of the NL proper now. Each have had their successes and failures in current playoff sequence, so as an alternative of specializing in if they are going to have the magical factor it takes to win within the postseason in 2024, I select to concentrate on how a lot better they will get within the second half. The Dodgers’ rotation depth may get a lot better (Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin Might, and Emmet Sheehan are all on the injured record proper now) and so they have a top-10 farm system, whereas Atlanta’s is within the backside 5. Loads will occur between now and the playoffs, however the Dodgers have much more room for error to repair what goes flawed. — McDaniel
Make the case for the Phillies. The Phillies will come into this season pushed by their shocking exit from final yr’s playoffs. On the time they had been knocked out, it appeared that they’d all the weather of a championship group, with a deep and highly effective lineup, an improved protection and a dominant postseason ace in Zack Wheeler — so their loss by the hands of the Diamondbacks should’ve gnawed at them possibly much more than dropping the World Sequence in 2022 did. That is going to be the chip on their shoulder all season, and so they know from current expertise that they are often nearly as good or higher than the Braves. The Phillies are an extremely harmful, extremely centered group, and so they’re aching to take the subsequent step. — Olney
World Sequence champion
Our choose: Atlanta Braves (13 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Baltimore Orioles (4), Los Angeles Dodgers (4), Philadelphia Phillies (2), Seattle Mariners (1), New York Yankees (1), Toronto Blue Jays (1)
Why will this be the Braves’ yr? This group is just too good and too highly effective to go down within the division sequence for a 3rd straight season — though avoiding Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola is likely to be a good suggestion. Crucial purpose why this would be the Braves’ yr is that the pitching employees is the very best one they’ve had this decade, a lot better and deeper than the 2021 World Sequence winners. The bullpen seems extraordinarily sturdy, which is able to permit supervisor Brian Snitker to again off his starters some within the common season to maintain them wholesome for October. And in Spencer Strider — proprietor of a brand new curveball — and Max Fried, they’ve a 1-2 punch that rivals any tandem in baseball and might shut down any lineup, together with the Dodgers. — Schoenfield
Regardless of their historic offseason, the Dodgers aren’t our favourite to win the title — however they’re yours. Why? All of us consider the Dodgers as that regular-season machine, a potential 100-win dynamo that has struggled at occasions to clear the postseason hurdle (nicely, apart from the shortened 2020 marketing campaign), however I truly see their 2024 roster as one in all their best-aligned for brief playoff sequence of any from the previous decade. Their offense is rock-solid, and have a look at that potential October rotation, assuming all goes nicely on the well being entrance: Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Kershaw and Bobby Miller, with Buehler, Might, Sheehan and Gavin Stone accessible as insurance coverage insurance policies if any of the entrance 4 is absent. What number of groups can declare a comparable postseason employees, at the least this far out? — Cockcroft
You had been the lone voter to decide on the Blue Jays to win the AL East, the pennant after which the World Sequence. Clarify why you are all-in on them. I’ve caught with the Jays since I noticed the approaching wave of kids of a few of the nice Corridor of Fame gamers I performed in opposition to. The Jays are in an attention-grabbing candy spot — they’ve younger expertise who at the moment are additionally skilled. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is clearly on a mission in 2024, understanding he wasn’t at his greatest a yr in the past, and so they nonetheless made the playoffs. Their rotation has plenty of arms and whereas each group’s pitching employees wants higher well being, the Blue Jays’ pitching was additionally a power final yr. They’ll win on the street, they beat up lefties and righties with out delight or prejudice and half their group is so athletic that they may very well be enjoying in March Insanity (and they’re in all probability nonetheless younger sufficient to be on a university group).
Now, the subsequent step for them, which I imagine they are going to take, is to carry out higher of their division. They proved they will beat the groups they’re purported to beat, however now, they should beat the favorites to totally understand they are the favorites. — Doug Glanville
AL MVP
Our choose: Juan Soto (8 votes), Julio Rodriguez (8)
Who else acquired votes? Gunnar Henderson (3), Adley Rutschman (2), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1), Bobby Witt Jr. (1), Corey Seager (1), Yordan Alvarez (1), Jose Ramirez (1)
Our voters had been tied between Soto and Rodriguez for AL MVP. Make the case for Soto. It is arduous to consider a greater match than Soto in Yankee pinstripes, enjoying beneath the brilliant lights of the largest metropolis in America. It virtually feels as if he was born for this. It can energize him, as will being solely a season away from his extremely anticipated run at free company. That, and the brief right-field porch in Yankee Stadium, may result in the very best offensive season of his profession. And with regards to separating himself from J-Rod, Soto can have one essential factor in his favor: a fellow celebrity in Choose batting behind him. — Gonzalez
Make the case for J-Rod. It got here all the way down to Soto and Rodriguez for me, too. I initially was going to select Soto — I additionally suppose he’ll have a monster season enjoying at Yankee Stadium, capitalizing on that brief porch and feeding off enjoying in New York. However I additionally suppose Choose goes to have one other MVP-caliber yr, which made me surprise if Soto and Choose would truly damage one another’s possibilities for the award. That led me to Rodriguez, a younger celebrity who nearly everyone believes will take the subsequent step this season, together with me. The Mariners needs to be actually good — that rotation is likely to be the very best within the majors — and Rodriguez needs to be the clear greatest participant. That mixture made him my choose. — Castillo
AL Rookie of the Yr
Our choose: Wyatt Langford (20 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Jackson Holliday (5), Evan Carter (1)
Langford simply made the Rangers’ Opening Day roster, however he’s already our favourite to win Rookie of the Yr. What makes him so particular? Langford’s teammates already are marveling on the entirety of the package deal he offers, from the linebacker’s physique — 6-foot-1, 225 kilos — to the house run energy to the superior swing selections. That he slipped to the fourth total choose in final July’s draft was as a lot a perform of the all-time class 2023 could also be, however fortune smiled on the Rangers, and beneath normal supervisor Chris Younger, their willingness to be aggressive is a guiding mild. They may’ve tried to govern Langford’s service time. As an alternative, they’re attempting to win one other World Sequence. — Passan
AL Cy Younger
Our choose: Corbin Burnes (10 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Pablo Lopez (6), Luis Castillo (4), Tarik Skubal (4), Kevin Gausman (1), Framber Valdez (1)
A number of AL pitchers obtained 4 or extra votes to win Cy Younger, with Burnes getting essentially the most at 10. Why was he your choose? Burnes is a quite stylish choose as a result of he gained the NL Cy Younger award for the 2021 Brewers, and his new group, the ascending Orioles, are coming off a 101-win season. Burnes is fourth in innings pitched over the previous three seasons and second in strikeouts, and with Gerrit Cole sidelined and Shohei Ohtani within the NL, he appears nearly as good a selection as any. — Karabell
Lopez was subsequent at 6 votes. Clarify why you selected him. Yr 1 in Minnesota was a rip-roaring success for Lopez, who elevated his strikeout whole by 60 from 2022 to ’23 (174 to 234) in the identical variety of begins (32). The league batted .184 and slugged .303 in opposition to his sweeper and curveball, which sported a ridiculous 96-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Along with his arrow pointing up, Lopez is poised for a 200-inning, 250-strikeout season that culminates within the Twins’ first Cy Younger winner since Johan Santana in 2006. — Hembekides
NL MVP
Our choose: Mookie Betts (14 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Ronald Acuna Jr. (6), Fernando Tatis Jr. (3), Freddie Freeman (2), BOF – Betts/Ohtani/Freeman (1)
Acuna isn’t our voters’ favourite right here, however you had been one in all six individuals to select him to win his second consecutive MVP. Clarify your reasoning. Acuna’s 40/73 season — 41 residence runs, 73 stolen bases — was statistically historic and helped him to his unanimous MVP choice in 2023, however here is what everyone seems to be overlooking: He would have been the MVP even when he had stolen 13 bases as an alternative of 73. He was the very best hitter within the NL, slashing .337/.416/.596, and he can do this once more for a transparent purpose: He lower his strikeout fee from 23.6% in 2021 and 2022 to 11.4% final yr. That is an actual, repeatable ability and it made him not solely one of many recreation’s prime sluggers however the sixth-most-difficult participant to strike out. He might not run as a lot this yr after tweaking his knee in spring coaching, however one other .330, 40-homer season means he can take residence MVP honors. — Schoenfield
BOF?! We will want to listen to your reasoning on this one. We’ve got to pause and understand what the Dodgers have put collectively on the prime of the order. It’s a three-headed legendary spirit animal that may accomplish something you’ll be able to think about on a baseball subject. You might subject a complete group with these three gamers. Betts may play 3B, SS, 2B, LF, RF, CF, C, in addition to be supervisor, hitting coach and GM. Ohtani may DH, pitch, break Statcast, hit or pitch baseballs in orbit and make peace with our Martian buddies (since he hit a baseball there for diplomatic functions). Freeman may simply fear about selecting up any unhealthy throws on his approach to 200 hits whereas working for mayor, governor and finally, president. (He has my vote.) These aren’t simply three wonderful gamers — they’re generational abilities.
I believed it may very well be enjoyable to trace the wonderful issues they do that season beneath the BOF umbrella. Since every part has a metric now, we should always personalize it. We may slap new adjectives on it and name it Ohtanic, Bettsositic and Freemantic, however higher to mix it into one metric, BOF, due to their potential altogether. Neglect MVP for a season, since there’s a good shot one in all these guys will win it — and the one purpose they might not (outdoors of Acuna additionally being legendary, and Soto being within the AL now) is as a result of they preserve knocking into one another. I want I may return and be a nine-hole hitter in entrance of these three. By no means once more would the 9 gap be so wonderful. Whoever hits ninth may rating 250 runs by simply respiration. — Glanville
NL Rookie of the Yr
Our choose: Jackson Chourio (9)
Who else acquired votes? Yoshinobu Yamamoto (6 votes), Jung Hoo Lee (6), Jackson Merrill (2), Paul Skenes (2), Shota Imanaga (1)
Why is Chourio your selection for Rookie of the Yr? I bear in mind when Chourio was having his breakout season in 2022 and I requested a professional scout how excessive up I ought to transfer him in my midseason prime 50 prospects replace. He argued for prime 10 and once I introduced up some issues, he stated: “Look, the scouts which have seen him suppose he has three 7s.” He means three of his 5 instruments (energy, velocity, arm) are a 7 on the 2-8 scale, or 70 on the 20-80 scale, whereas the opposite two may each be 60s. What number of guys within the huge leagues can match that? It is a single-digit quantity, and it is likely to be as small as three. Add on prime of that how extremely Milwaukee raves about Chourio’s make-up and it is arduous to justify selecting anybody else. — McDaniel
Yamamoto and Lee tied with six votes apiece. What makes Lee your choose? First off, Lee is enjoyable, and baseball wants extra enjoyable. He is quick and flashy and prepared for his second. He had a robust spring coaching, displaying extra energy than anticipated, and he looks like the kind of rookie who can are available and hit the bottom working. He won’t be the very best participant from this rookie class in 5 years — give that to Chourio — however he’ll be the very best one over the subsequent 6 ½ months. — Keown
NL Cy Younger
Our choose: Spencer Strider (15 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Zack Wheeler (7), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (1), Zac Gallen (1), Dylan Stop (1), Max Fried (1)
There’s extra of a transparent favourite within the NL Cy Younger subject than within the AL — and Strider’s it. Why? Primarily based on the standard of his stuff, he’ll in all probability lead the league in strikeouts once more. And primarily based on the standard of his teammates, he’ll in all probability lead the league in wins once more. However the separator may very well be a stronger end. Strider gathered a career-high 186 2/3 innings final season, greater than a 50-inning leap from the yr earlier than. However he appeared to put on down close to the top, posting a 5.67 ERA over his previous six regular-season begins. If not for that, he in all probability would’ve gained the Cy Younger in 2023. — Gonzalez
Opening Day is tomorrow, so you understand what which means — it is time for season predictions!
There are many questions going into the 2024 season: What does Yr 3 of MLB’s expanded playoffs have to supply? Will we proceed to see prime groups knocked out early? And is that this the yr your favourite group will make a run in October? Or your favourite participant will win a postseason award?
Nobody can definitively know what’s in retailer for this season, however that does not cease us from making our greatest guesses. We put 26 of ESPN’s MLB writers, analysts and editors on the spot to foretell what is going to occur in baseball this yr, from the wild-card contenders all the best way as much as the World Sequence champion, plus the MVP, Cy Younger and Rookie of the Yr in each leagues.
For every class, we have requested numerous our voters to clarify their picks. Did they hit the nail on the top or had been they means off their mark? Solely time can inform — and you understand we’ll be circling again to those predictions come October to see how nicely, or poorly, we did.
With out additional ado, let’s have a look at what our consultants needed to say.
Leap to:
AL picks | NL picks | WS picks | AL awards | NL awards
AL East
Our choose: Baltimore Orioles (22 votes)
Who else acquired votes? New York Yankees (2), Tampa Bay Rays (1), Toronto Blue Jays (1)
The O’s are the overwhelming favourite to win the division. How do the Yankees beat them? By getting — and staying — wholesome. Accidents ravaged the Yankees’ 2023 season, and so they may once more in 2024. Gerrit Cole and DJ LeMahieu are already coping with setbacks. LeMahieu may miss the beginning of the season, however he ought to return quickly thereafter. Cole’s standing is extra unclear, and the Yankees’ postseason hopes probably rely on it. Assuming Cole returns someday earlier than the All-Star break and is efficient, the Yankees ought to win sufficient baseball video games to be in rivalry for the division title in the event that they keep wholesome elsewhere. They will rating loads of runs with Juan Soto and Aaron Choose within the lineup.
The Orioles, in the meantime, are loaded with younger expertise — and so they even went out and added ace Corbin Burnes throughout the offseason. They may very well be simply nearly as good, if not higher, than final season’s 101-win membership. However there are harm issues within the rotation behind Burnes and regression is all the time a chance. Their Pythagorean file in 2023 was 94-68, suggesting they overperformed by seven victories. It needs to be an in depth race. — Jorge Castillo
AL Central
Our choose: Minnesota Twins (16 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Detroit Tigers (5), Cleveland Guardians (3), Kansas Metropolis Royals (2)
4 of the 5 AL Central groups acquired votes to win the division. Why will the Twins take it? The Twins have the clearest path to a division title of any group within the American League, however do not simply take my phrase for it. At ESPN BET, Minnesota is the one AL membership listed as an odds-on favourite to win its division (-115). The quartet of Edouard Julien, Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis atop that lineup guarantees to be fierce (assuming good well being, in fact), whereas Pablo Lopez has emerged as a possible Cy Younger favourite within the league. Suffice it to say, the Twins have extra top-end expertise on their roster than some other membership within the AL Central. — Paul Hembekides
AL West
Our choose: Houston Astros (14 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Texas Rangers (8), Seattle Mariners (4)
Texas acquired eight votes, however Houston acquired 14. How will the Astros beat out their rivals for the division? The pre-All-Star break well being of the Texas rotation is the deciding issue for me in a race between two sturdy groups with out a lot separation between them. The Astros have owned the division for seven years now and there is not any clear purpose to count on them to fall off in 2024. Whereas the Rangers had the superior run differential in 2023, I believe they’re set as much as be a a lot better group after the break — although, by then, they may have some floor to make up. Houston additionally ended up with star nearer Josh Hader, another excuse to lean towards the Astros in a good chase. However it might in no way shock me to see these groups conflict in October for a second straight season. — Bradford Doolittle
How will the Rangers beat Houston? The Astros are literally in an identical boat to the Rangers by way of the accidents befalling their rotation. For Texas, Max Scherzer is predicted to be out till June, Tyler Mahle till July and Jacob deGrom till August. Houston ought to get Justin Verlander again quickly, however Jose Urquidy is out till at the least Might and Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia will not return till midseason. Which leaves the lineups and gloves. And for nearly as good as Houston is — and the Astros stay an excellent baseball group — no lineup within the AL can match the Rangers’, and their protection final postseason was immaculate. Add in Seattle, and the AL West goes to be one whale of a race. — Jeff Passan
Why do you suppose the Mariners will win? The Mariners missed out on profitable the division final season by simply two video games, so that they had been very a lot on par with the Astros and Rangers. Now, after three consecutive profitable seasons, they’re able to take one other step. As normal, Seattle did not spend some huge cash within the offseason, however their pickups on offense have an opportunity to be sneaky good. Jorge Polanco, Mitch Haniger and Mitch Garver present veteran and playoff expertise for a group that wants it. I am additionally selecting Julio Rodriguez to win MVP.
However let’s not bury the lede right here: Seattle’s power is on the mound, the place they added two extra abilities in righties Ryne Stanek and Gregory Santos — although, the latter is sidelined in the meanwhile. The Mariners’ greatest power is their rotation, and, at the least to start out the season, it is the very best within the division. — Jesse Rogers
AL wild playing cards
Our picks: New York Yankees (17 votes), Seattle Mariners (14), Texas Rangers (13)
Who else acquired votes? Houston Astros (12), Tampa Bay Rays (11), Toronto Blue Jays (6), Baltimore Orioles (3), Boston Purple Sox (2)
Lately, the Rays have gotten a majority of votes from our panel to make the playoffs. Why are they on the skin wanting on this yr? I consider the Rays as a group with wonderful huge league depth and minor league stock that additionally places gamers in roles the place they will succeed. It is by means of these items that the Rays make the most of each little edge — platooning non-star gamers, boasting numerous multi-positional sorts, having diversified seems out of the bullpen — to squeeze wins out of an extended season when every little benefit may imply a win or two. This results in them typically beating expectations within the common season.
Nevertheless, due to their payroll limitations, they typically haven’t got the aces or a number of star place gamers you see on groups that persistently win playoff sequence. That mixed with a down-cycle of star gamers (Tyler Glasnow was traded, Shane McClanahan is damage), the AL East being nearly as good as ever and the Rays having a good variety of accidents proper now are causes for the doubts this March. — Kiley McDaniel
Solely two voters selected the Purple Sox and also you had been one in all them. Why? Little question, on paper, the Purple Sox appear like the weakest group in a robust division, however my decidedly unscientific method to this train is that we’ll have some playoff turnover — as a result of we all the time do. A pair surprises needed to be so as, and the Purple Sox have an opportunity to be higher than everybody believes. Doolittle’s system provides them playoff odds of 21%, the offense scored extra runs than the Blue Jays final season — and is likely to be even stronger this yr — and I believe the Rays’ rotation accidents will catch as much as them this season. Sure, the Purple Sox will want their rotation to remain wholesome, but when it does, they will steal a wild card. — David Schoenfield
AL champion
Our choose: Baltimore Orioles (14 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Houston Astros (5), New York Yankees (4), Seattle Mariners (1), Toronto Blue Jays (1), Texas Rangers (1)
Why are the Orioles the favourite to win the AL pennant? It is as if evaluators have a look at the identical script after they discuss Baltimore, emphasizing the identical bold-faced phrase: expertise. Within the eyes of plenty of rival execs, the Orioles have far and away essentially the most expertise within the AL, with Adley Rutschman, who’s perceived to be the very best catcher within the sport; Gunnar Henderson, who gained Rookie of the Yr; and Jackson Holliday, who may win Rookie of the Yr if he is known as as much as the massive leagues quickly sufficient. And after we get to the commerce deadline, it is secure to imagine that new proprietor David Rubenstein will green-light the assets wanted for the entrance workplace to plug holes. — Buster Olney
You had been our solely voter to select the reigning World Sequence champions. Make the Rangers’ case. A charitable studying of the Rangers’ beginning rotation is that it’s in flux. Much less charitably, it may very well be disastrous. However that is solely momentary, and I believe the lineup is nice sufficient to hold the group by means of the early a part of the season till all of the accidents play themselves out — no assure, however these are predictions, in any case, and never guarantees. Scherzer will probably be again for another (final?) run earlier than the All-Star break and deGrom needs to be again in August. Within the meantime, the Rangers will preserve mashing, and supervisor Bruce Bochy will combine and match like he all the time does. Similar to final season, they will peak when it issues most. — Tim Keown
NL East
Our choose: Atlanta Braves (24 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Philadelphia Phillies (2)
Why do you suppose this would be the Phillies’ yr to usurp the Braves atop the division? The Phillies couldn’t match the Braves throughout the common season the previous two years, however then they topped them twice in October, which issues extra. Atlanta figures to play it safer throughout the common season and enter October better-rested than it has in previous seasons. Philadelphia has the higher rotation and bullpen and may edge Atlanta out as every group approaches 100 wins. — Eric Karabell
NL Central
Our choose: Chicago Cubs (16 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Cincinnati Reds (6), St. Louis Cardinals (2), Milwaukee Brewers (2)
The Cubs are the favourite to win the NL Central, regardless of lacking the playoffs final yr. What makes this yr completely different? It is a robust name between Cincinnati and Chicago to win the division, however the Reds have some accidents to start out the season and the Cubs have a extra skilled roster, so that they’re my choose to win it. However it’s going to go all the way down to the wire. On the floor, the Cubs gained 83 video games final season with a plus-96 run differential, and with almost the identical roster this yr and new supervisor Craig Counsell within the fold, they’re much less more likely to go away wins on the desk. A key pickup this offseason was Japanese pitcher Shota Imanaga, and he, together with the group’s deep farm system, will undoubtedly be wanted to contribute on the mound this yr. The Cubs are void of a number of true, top-end stars however have a great 40-man roster to endure the grind of an extended season. — Rogers
Make the case for the Reds to take the division. I mission the Nationwide League Central to be essentially the most wide-open division. I believe 86 wins may even internet a group the division title, and final yr, the Reds had been simply 4 wins shy of that quantity. Granted, I felt higher in regards to the Reds’ absurd prospect depth earlier than Noelvi Marte’s suspension and Matt McLain’s harm, however they nonetheless have each the uncooked expertise and prospect capital to make the trades they’d have to bolster their playoff possibilities. In the event that they made an enormous transfer for a pitcher, I believe they’d be broadly checked out as extra of a division favourite.— Tristan Cockcroft
NL West
Our choose: Los Angeles Dodgers (26 votes)
Not a single voter picked one other group to win the NL West. Why is that this a lock for the Dodgers? As a result of we have seen them do it with a lot much less. The 2024 Dodgers are imperfect — by way of their rotation stability and infield protection, particularly — however nowhere close to as flawed as they had been final yr, after they reeled off 100 wins and claimed their tenth division title in 11 years. They’ve already mastered the six-month common season, and now they’re the deepest and most proficient group in the complete sport, not to mention the NL West. There have been years when the Dodgers have been weak by means of this run. This isn’t a type of. — Alden Gonzalez
NL wild playing cards
Our picks: Philadelphia Phillies (23 votes), Arizona Diamondbacks (19), San Francisco Giants (16)
Who else acquired votes? San Diego Padres (8), Chicago Cubs (7), Atlanta Braves (2), Cincinnati Reds (2), St. Louis Cardinals (1)
You picked all three of the groups that had been the favorites amongst our voters to be a wild card. Why will that be the NL wild-card subject? Effectively, first, I am a little bit shocked that the Giants had been such a well-liked choose. I consider them extra as a sleeper candidate, although I picked them, as nicely. This is the dynamic within the NL, circa 2024. You’ve the Braves and Dodgers on their very own stage with nobody else projected to be wherever close to them. On the different finish of the spectrum, you will have the Rockies and Nationals forecasted to be the league’s punching luggage. Then you will have the Phillies, who appear like the clear No. 3 within the league. Since Philly shares a division with Atlanta, that marks them because the probably of the NL’s wild-card candidates.
After that, there isn’t any eventual end-of-season order of the opposite 10 groups that will shock me. I just like the Diamondbacks as a group on the rise, one which needs to be higher than final season even when they do not catch lightning in a bottle once more at playoff time. And I just like the Giants for the standard bulk of their offseason acquisitions, the potential of Jung Hoo Lee to be a catalyst atop their lineup, their total depth and particularly the potential of a rotation led by an enormous three of Logan Webb, Blake Snell and the electrical Kyle Harrison. — Doolittle
How can the Padres disrupt the wild-card race to interchange one of many favored groups? The third wild-card spot within the NL may go to a half dozen groups, however I am taking the Padres primarily based on two elements: 1) Their beginning pitching is fairly good, particularly with Dylan Stop added to that rotation to go along with Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish, and a couple of) They nonetheless have a dynamic lineup 1-5. I believe Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. are poised for his or her greatest years ever. Even with the departure of Soto, I nonetheless suppose the Padres can rating sufficient runs, and mixed with their nice beginning pitching, they’ve an opportunity to safe a wild card within the loaded NL subject. They could have had too many mouths to feed final yr — however this yr, with fewer mouths to feed, I believe they will be higher. — Tim Kurkjian
NL champion
Our choose: Atlanta Braves (14 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Los Angeles Dodgers (6), Philadelphia Phillies (4), San Diego Padres (1), San Francisco Giants (1)
Make the case for the Dodgers to beat out the Braves for the pennant. The Braves and Dodgers are clearly the category of the NL proper now. Each have had their successes and failures in current playoff sequence, so as an alternative of specializing in if they are going to have the magical factor it takes to win within the postseason in 2024, I select to concentrate on how a lot better they will get within the second half. The Dodgers’ rotation depth may get a lot better (Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin Might, and Emmet Sheehan are all on the injured record proper now) and so they have a top-10 farm system, whereas Atlanta’s is within the backside 5. Loads will occur between now and the playoffs, however the Dodgers have much more room for error to repair what goes flawed. — McDaniel
Make the case for the Phillies. The Phillies will come into this season pushed by their shocking exit from final yr’s playoffs. On the time they had been knocked out, it appeared that they’d all the weather of a championship group, with a deep and highly effective lineup, an improved protection and a dominant postseason ace in Zack Wheeler — so their loss by the hands of the Diamondbacks should’ve gnawed at them possibly much more than dropping the World Sequence in 2022 did. That is going to be the chip on their shoulder all season, and so they know from current expertise that they are often nearly as good or higher than the Braves. The Phillies are an extremely harmful, extremely centered group, and so they’re aching to take the subsequent step. — Olney
World Sequence champion
Our choose: Atlanta Braves (13 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Baltimore Orioles (4), Los Angeles Dodgers (4), Philadelphia Phillies (2), Seattle Mariners (1), New York Yankees (1), Toronto Blue Jays (1)
Why will this be the Braves’ yr? This group is just too good and too highly effective to go down within the division sequence for a 3rd straight season — though avoiding Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola is likely to be a good suggestion. Crucial purpose why this would be the Braves’ yr is that the pitching employees is the very best one they’ve had this decade, a lot better and deeper than the 2021 World Sequence winners. The bullpen seems extraordinarily sturdy, which is able to permit supervisor Brian Snitker to again off his starters some within the common season to maintain them wholesome for October. And in Spencer Strider — proprietor of a brand new curveball — and Max Fried, they’ve a 1-2 punch that rivals any tandem in baseball and might shut down any lineup, together with the Dodgers. — Schoenfield
Regardless of their historic offseason, the Dodgers aren’t our favourite to win the title — however they’re yours. Why? All of us consider the Dodgers as that regular-season machine, a potential 100-win dynamo that has struggled at occasions to clear the postseason hurdle (nicely, apart from the shortened 2020 marketing campaign), however I truly see their 2024 roster as one in all their best-aligned for brief playoff sequence of any from the previous decade. Their offense is rock-solid, and have a look at that potential October rotation, assuming all goes nicely on the well being entrance: Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Kershaw and Bobby Miller, with Buehler, Might, Sheehan and Gavin Stone accessible as insurance coverage insurance policies if any of the entrance 4 is absent. What number of groups can declare a comparable postseason employees, at the least this far out? — Cockcroft
You had been the lone voter to decide on the Blue Jays to win the AL East, the pennant after which the World Sequence. Clarify why you are all-in on them. I’ve caught with the Jays since I noticed the approaching wave of kids of a few of the nice Corridor of Fame gamers I performed in opposition to. The Jays are in an attention-grabbing candy spot — they’ve younger expertise who at the moment are additionally skilled. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is clearly on a mission in 2024, understanding he wasn’t at his greatest a yr in the past, and so they nonetheless made the playoffs. Their rotation has plenty of arms and whereas each group’s pitching employees wants higher well being, the Blue Jays’ pitching was additionally a power final yr. They’ll win on the street, they beat up lefties and righties with out delight or prejudice and half their group is so athletic that they may very well be enjoying in March Insanity (and they’re in all probability nonetheless younger sufficient to be on a university group).
Now, the subsequent step for them, which I imagine they are going to take, is to carry out higher of their division. They proved they will beat the groups they’re purported to beat, however now, they should beat the favorites to totally understand they are the favorites. — Doug Glanville
AL MVP
Our choose: Juan Soto (8 votes), Julio Rodriguez (8)
Who else acquired votes? Gunnar Henderson (3), Adley Rutschman (2), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1), Bobby Witt Jr. (1), Corey Seager (1), Yordan Alvarez (1), Jose Ramirez (1)
Our voters had been tied between Soto and Rodriguez for AL MVP. Make the case for Soto. It is arduous to consider a greater match than Soto in Yankee pinstripes, enjoying beneath the brilliant lights of the largest metropolis in America. It virtually feels as if he was born for this. It can energize him, as will being solely a season away from his extremely anticipated run at free company. That, and the brief right-field porch in Yankee Stadium, may result in the very best offensive season of his profession. And with regards to separating himself from J-Rod, Soto can have one essential factor in his favor: a fellow celebrity in Choose batting behind him. — Gonzalez
Make the case for J-Rod. It got here all the way down to Soto and Rodriguez for me, too. I initially was going to select Soto — I additionally suppose he’ll have a monster season enjoying at Yankee Stadium, capitalizing on that brief porch and feeding off enjoying in New York. However I additionally suppose Choose goes to have one other MVP-caliber yr, which made me surprise if Soto and Choose would truly damage one another’s possibilities for the award. That led me to Rodriguez, a younger celebrity who nearly everyone believes will take the subsequent step this season, together with me. The Mariners needs to be actually good — that rotation is likely to be the very best within the majors — and Rodriguez needs to be the clear greatest participant. That mixture made him my choose. — Castillo
AL Rookie of the Yr
Our choose: Wyatt Langford (20 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Jackson Holliday (5), Evan Carter (1)
Langford simply made the Rangers’ Opening Day roster, however he’s already our favourite to win Rookie of the Yr. What makes him so particular? Langford’s teammates already are marveling on the entirety of the package deal he offers, from the linebacker’s physique — 6-foot-1, 225 kilos — to the house run energy to the superior swing selections. That he slipped to the fourth total choose in final July’s draft was as a lot a perform of the all-time class 2023 could also be, however fortune smiled on the Rangers, and beneath normal supervisor Chris Younger, their willingness to be aggressive is a guiding mild. They may’ve tried to govern Langford’s service time. As an alternative, they’re attempting to win one other World Sequence. — Passan
AL Cy Younger
Our choose: Corbin Burnes (10 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Pablo Lopez (6), Luis Castillo (4), Tarik Skubal (4), Kevin Gausman (1), Framber Valdez (1)
A number of AL pitchers obtained 4 or extra votes to win Cy Younger, with Burnes getting essentially the most at 10. Why was he your choose? Burnes is a quite stylish choose as a result of he gained the NL Cy Younger award for the 2021 Brewers, and his new group, the ascending Orioles, are coming off a 101-win season. Burnes is fourth in innings pitched over the previous three seasons and second in strikeouts, and with Gerrit Cole sidelined and Shohei Ohtani within the NL, he appears nearly as good a selection as any. — Karabell
Lopez was subsequent at 6 votes. Clarify why you selected him. Yr 1 in Minnesota was a rip-roaring success for Lopez, who elevated his strikeout whole by 60 from 2022 to ’23 (174 to 234) in the identical variety of begins (32). The league batted .184 and slugged .303 in opposition to his sweeper and curveball, which sported a ridiculous 96-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Along with his arrow pointing up, Lopez is poised for a 200-inning, 250-strikeout season that culminates within the Twins’ first Cy Younger winner since Johan Santana in 2006. — Hembekides
NL MVP
Our choose: Mookie Betts (14 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Ronald Acuna Jr. (6), Fernando Tatis Jr. (3), Freddie Freeman (2), BOF – Betts/Ohtani/Freeman (1)
Acuna isn’t our voters’ favourite right here, however you had been one in all six individuals to select him to win his second consecutive MVP. Clarify your reasoning. Acuna’s 40/73 season — 41 residence runs, 73 stolen bases — was statistically historic and helped him to his unanimous MVP choice in 2023, however here is what everyone seems to be overlooking: He would have been the MVP even when he had stolen 13 bases as an alternative of 73. He was the very best hitter within the NL, slashing .337/.416/.596, and he can do this once more for a transparent purpose: He lower his strikeout fee from 23.6% in 2021 and 2022 to 11.4% final yr. That is an actual, repeatable ability and it made him not solely one of many recreation’s prime sluggers however the sixth-most-difficult participant to strike out. He might not run as a lot this yr after tweaking his knee in spring coaching, however one other .330, 40-homer season means he can take residence MVP honors. — Schoenfield
BOF?! We will want to listen to your reasoning on this one. We’ve got to pause and understand what the Dodgers have put collectively on the prime of the order. It’s a three-headed legendary spirit animal that may accomplish something you’ll be able to think about on a baseball subject. You might subject a complete group with these three gamers. Betts may play 3B, SS, 2B, LF, RF, CF, C, in addition to be supervisor, hitting coach and GM. Ohtani may DH, pitch, break Statcast, hit or pitch baseballs in orbit and make peace with our Martian buddies (since he hit a baseball there for diplomatic functions). Freeman may simply fear about selecting up any unhealthy throws on his approach to 200 hits whereas working for mayor, governor and finally, president. (He has my vote.) These aren’t simply three wonderful gamers — they’re generational abilities.
I believed it may very well be enjoyable to trace the wonderful issues they do that season beneath the BOF umbrella. Since every part has a metric now, we should always personalize it. We may slap new adjectives on it and name it Ohtanic, Bettsositic and Freemantic, however higher to mix it into one metric, BOF, due to their potential altogether. Neglect MVP for a season, since there’s a good shot one in all these guys will win it — and the one purpose they might not (outdoors of Acuna additionally being legendary, and Soto being within the AL now) is as a result of they preserve knocking into one another. I want I may return and be a nine-hole hitter in entrance of these three. By no means once more would the 9 gap be so wonderful. Whoever hits ninth may rating 250 runs by simply respiration. — Glanville
NL Rookie of the Yr
Our choose: Jackson Chourio (9)
Who else acquired votes? Yoshinobu Yamamoto (6 votes), Jung Hoo Lee (6), Jackson Merrill (2), Paul Skenes (2), Shota Imanaga (1)
Why is Chourio your selection for Rookie of the Yr? I bear in mind when Chourio was having his breakout season in 2022 and I requested a professional scout how excessive up I ought to transfer him in my midseason prime 50 prospects replace. He argued for prime 10 and once I introduced up some issues, he stated: “Look, the scouts which have seen him suppose he has three 7s.” He means three of his 5 instruments (energy, velocity, arm) are a 7 on the 2-8 scale, or 70 on the 20-80 scale, whereas the opposite two may each be 60s. What number of guys within the huge leagues can match that? It is a single-digit quantity, and it is likely to be as small as three. Add on prime of that how extremely Milwaukee raves about Chourio’s make-up and it is arduous to justify selecting anybody else. — McDaniel
Yamamoto and Lee tied with six votes apiece. What makes Lee your choose? First off, Lee is enjoyable, and baseball wants extra enjoyable. He is quick and flashy and prepared for his second. He had a robust spring coaching, displaying extra energy than anticipated, and he looks like the kind of rookie who can are available and hit the bottom working. He won’t be the very best participant from this rookie class in 5 years — give that to Chourio — however he’ll be the very best one over the subsequent 6 ½ months. — Keown
NL Cy Younger
Our choose: Spencer Strider (15 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Zack Wheeler (7), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (1), Zac Gallen (1), Dylan Stop (1), Max Fried (1)
There’s extra of a transparent favourite within the NL Cy Younger subject than within the AL — and Strider’s it. Why? Primarily based on the standard of his stuff, he’ll in all probability lead the league in strikeouts once more. And primarily based on the standard of his teammates, he’ll in all probability lead the league in wins once more. However the separator may very well be a stronger end. Strider gathered a career-high 186 2/3 innings final season, greater than a 50-inning leap from the yr earlier than. However he appeared to put on down close to the top, posting a 5.67 ERA over his previous six regular-season begins. If not for that, he in all probability would’ve gained the Cy Younger in 2023. — Gonzalez
Opening Day is tomorrow, so you understand what which means — it is time for season predictions!
There are many questions going into the 2024 season: What does Yr 3 of MLB’s expanded playoffs have to supply? Will we proceed to see prime groups knocked out early? And is that this the yr your favourite group will make a run in October? Or your favourite participant will win a postseason award?
Nobody can definitively know what’s in retailer for this season, however that does not cease us from making our greatest guesses. We put 26 of ESPN’s MLB writers, analysts and editors on the spot to foretell what is going to occur in baseball this yr, from the wild-card contenders all the best way as much as the World Sequence champion, plus the MVP, Cy Younger and Rookie of the Yr in each leagues.
For every class, we have requested numerous our voters to clarify their picks. Did they hit the nail on the top or had been they means off their mark? Solely time can inform — and you understand we’ll be circling again to those predictions come October to see how nicely, or poorly, we did.
With out additional ado, let’s have a look at what our consultants needed to say.
Leap to:
AL picks | NL picks | WS picks | AL awards | NL awards
AL East
Our choose: Baltimore Orioles (22 votes)
Who else acquired votes? New York Yankees (2), Tampa Bay Rays (1), Toronto Blue Jays (1)
The O’s are the overwhelming favourite to win the division. How do the Yankees beat them? By getting — and staying — wholesome. Accidents ravaged the Yankees’ 2023 season, and so they may once more in 2024. Gerrit Cole and DJ LeMahieu are already coping with setbacks. LeMahieu may miss the beginning of the season, however he ought to return quickly thereafter. Cole’s standing is extra unclear, and the Yankees’ postseason hopes probably rely on it. Assuming Cole returns someday earlier than the All-Star break and is efficient, the Yankees ought to win sufficient baseball video games to be in rivalry for the division title in the event that they keep wholesome elsewhere. They will rating loads of runs with Juan Soto and Aaron Choose within the lineup.
The Orioles, in the meantime, are loaded with younger expertise — and so they even went out and added ace Corbin Burnes throughout the offseason. They may very well be simply nearly as good, if not higher, than final season’s 101-win membership. However there are harm issues within the rotation behind Burnes and regression is all the time a chance. Their Pythagorean file in 2023 was 94-68, suggesting they overperformed by seven victories. It needs to be an in depth race. — Jorge Castillo
AL Central
Our choose: Minnesota Twins (16 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Detroit Tigers (5), Cleveland Guardians (3), Kansas Metropolis Royals (2)
4 of the 5 AL Central groups acquired votes to win the division. Why will the Twins take it? The Twins have the clearest path to a division title of any group within the American League, however do not simply take my phrase for it. At ESPN BET, Minnesota is the one AL membership listed as an odds-on favourite to win its division (-115). The quartet of Edouard Julien, Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis atop that lineup guarantees to be fierce (assuming good well being, in fact), whereas Pablo Lopez has emerged as a possible Cy Younger favourite within the league. Suffice it to say, the Twins have extra top-end expertise on their roster than some other membership within the AL Central. — Paul Hembekides
AL West
Our choose: Houston Astros (14 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Texas Rangers (8), Seattle Mariners (4)
Texas acquired eight votes, however Houston acquired 14. How will the Astros beat out their rivals for the division? The pre-All-Star break well being of the Texas rotation is the deciding issue for me in a race between two sturdy groups with out a lot separation between them. The Astros have owned the division for seven years now and there is not any clear purpose to count on them to fall off in 2024. Whereas the Rangers had the superior run differential in 2023, I believe they’re set as much as be a a lot better group after the break — although, by then, they may have some floor to make up. Houston additionally ended up with star nearer Josh Hader, another excuse to lean towards the Astros in a good chase. However it might in no way shock me to see these groups conflict in October for a second straight season. — Bradford Doolittle
How will the Rangers beat Houston? The Astros are literally in an identical boat to the Rangers by way of the accidents befalling their rotation. For Texas, Max Scherzer is predicted to be out till June, Tyler Mahle till July and Jacob deGrom till August. Houston ought to get Justin Verlander again quickly, however Jose Urquidy is out till at the least Might and Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia will not return till midseason. Which leaves the lineups and gloves. And for nearly as good as Houston is — and the Astros stay an excellent baseball group — no lineup within the AL can match the Rangers’, and their protection final postseason was immaculate. Add in Seattle, and the AL West goes to be one whale of a race. — Jeff Passan
Why do you suppose the Mariners will win? The Mariners missed out on profitable the division final season by simply two video games, so that they had been very a lot on par with the Astros and Rangers. Now, after three consecutive profitable seasons, they’re able to take one other step. As normal, Seattle did not spend some huge cash within the offseason, however their pickups on offense have an opportunity to be sneaky good. Jorge Polanco, Mitch Haniger and Mitch Garver present veteran and playoff expertise for a group that wants it. I am additionally selecting Julio Rodriguez to win MVP.
However let’s not bury the lede right here: Seattle’s power is on the mound, the place they added two extra abilities in righties Ryne Stanek and Gregory Santos — although, the latter is sidelined in the meanwhile. The Mariners’ greatest power is their rotation, and, at the least to start out the season, it is the very best within the division. — Jesse Rogers
AL wild playing cards
Our picks: New York Yankees (17 votes), Seattle Mariners (14), Texas Rangers (13)
Who else acquired votes? Houston Astros (12), Tampa Bay Rays (11), Toronto Blue Jays (6), Baltimore Orioles (3), Boston Purple Sox (2)
Lately, the Rays have gotten a majority of votes from our panel to make the playoffs. Why are they on the skin wanting on this yr? I consider the Rays as a group with wonderful huge league depth and minor league stock that additionally places gamers in roles the place they will succeed. It is by means of these items that the Rays make the most of each little edge — platooning non-star gamers, boasting numerous multi-positional sorts, having diversified seems out of the bullpen — to squeeze wins out of an extended season when every little benefit may imply a win or two. This results in them typically beating expectations within the common season.
Nevertheless, due to their payroll limitations, they typically haven’t got the aces or a number of star place gamers you see on groups that persistently win playoff sequence. That mixed with a down-cycle of star gamers (Tyler Glasnow was traded, Shane McClanahan is damage), the AL East being nearly as good as ever and the Rays having a good variety of accidents proper now are causes for the doubts this March. — Kiley McDaniel
Solely two voters selected the Purple Sox and also you had been one in all them. Why? Little question, on paper, the Purple Sox appear like the weakest group in a robust division, however my decidedly unscientific method to this train is that we’ll have some playoff turnover — as a result of we all the time do. A pair surprises needed to be so as, and the Purple Sox have an opportunity to be higher than everybody believes. Doolittle’s system provides them playoff odds of 21%, the offense scored extra runs than the Blue Jays final season — and is likely to be even stronger this yr — and I believe the Rays’ rotation accidents will catch as much as them this season. Sure, the Purple Sox will want their rotation to remain wholesome, but when it does, they will steal a wild card. — David Schoenfield
AL champion
Our choose: Baltimore Orioles (14 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Houston Astros (5), New York Yankees (4), Seattle Mariners (1), Toronto Blue Jays (1), Texas Rangers (1)
Why are the Orioles the favourite to win the AL pennant? It is as if evaluators have a look at the identical script after they discuss Baltimore, emphasizing the identical bold-faced phrase: expertise. Within the eyes of plenty of rival execs, the Orioles have far and away essentially the most expertise within the AL, with Adley Rutschman, who’s perceived to be the very best catcher within the sport; Gunnar Henderson, who gained Rookie of the Yr; and Jackson Holliday, who may win Rookie of the Yr if he is known as as much as the massive leagues quickly sufficient. And after we get to the commerce deadline, it is secure to imagine that new proprietor David Rubenstein will green-light the assets wanted for the entrance workplace to plug holes. — Buster Olney
You had been our solely voter to select the reigning World Sequence champions. Make the Rangers’ case. A charitable studying of the Rangers’ beginning rotation is that it’s in flux. Much less charitably, it may very well be disastrous. However that is solely momentary, and I believe the lineup is nice sufficient to hold the group by means of the early a part of the season till all of the accidents play themselves out — no assure, however these are predictions, in any case, and never guarantees. Scherzer will probably be again for another (final?) run earlier than the All-Star break and deGrom needs to be again in August. Within the meantime, the Rangers will preserve mashing, and supervisor Bruce Bochy will combine and match like he all the time does. Similar to final season, they will peak when it issues most. — Tim Keown
NL East
Our choose: Atlanta Braves (24 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Philadelphia Phillies (2)
Why do you suppose this would be the Phillies’ yr to usurp the Braves atop the division? The Phillies couldn’t match the Braves throughout the common season the previous two years, however then they topped them twice in October, which issues extra. Atlanta figures to play it safer throughout the common season and enter October better-rested than it has in previous seasons. Philadelphia has the higher rotation and bullpen and may edge Atlanta out as every group approaches 100 wins. — Eric Karabell
NL Central
Our choose: Chicago Cubs (16 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Cincinnati Reds (6), St. Louis Cardinals (2), Milwaukee Brewers (2)
The Cubs are the favourite to win the NL Central, regardless of lacking the playoffs final yr. What makes this yr completely different? It is a robust name between Cincinnati and Chicago to win the division, however the Reds have some accidents to start out the season and the Cubs have a extra skilled roster, so that they’re my choose to win it. However it’s going to go all the way down to the wire. On the floor, the Cubs gained 83 video games final season with a plus-96 run differential, and with almost the identical roster this yr and new supervisor Craig Counsell within the fold, they’re much less more likely to go away wins on the desk. A key pickup this offseason was Japanese pitcher Shota Imanaga, and he, together with the group’s deep farm system, will undoubtedly be wanted to contribute on the mound this yr. The Cubs are void of a number of true, top-end stars however have a great 40-man roster to endure the grind of an extended season. — Rogers
Make the case for the Reds to take the division. I mission the Nationwide League Central to be essentially the most wide-open division. I believe 86 wins may even internet a group the division title, and final yr, the Reds had been simply 4 wins shy of that quantity. Granted, I felt higher in regards to the Reds’ absurd prospect depth earlier than Noelvi Marte’s suspension and Matt McLain’s harm, however they nonetheless have each the uncooked expertise and prospect capital to make the trades they’d have to bolster their playoff possibilities. In the event that they made an enormous transfer for a pitcher, I believe they’d be broadly checked out as extra of a division favourite.— Tristan Cockcroft
NL West
Our choose: Los Angeles Dodgers (26 votes)
Not a single voter picked one other group to win the NL West. Why is that this a lock for the Dodgers? As a result of we have seen them do it with a lot much less. The 2024 Dodgers are imperfect — by way of their rotation stability and infield protection, particularly — however nowhere close to as flawed as they had been final yr, after they reeled off 100 wins and claimed their tenth division title in 11 years. They’ve already mastered the six-month common season, and now they’re the deepest and most proficient group in the complete sport, not to mention the NL West. There have been years when the Dodgers have been weak by means of this run. This isn’t a type of. — Alden Gonzalez
NL wild playing cards
Our picks: Philadelphia Phillies (23 votes), Arizona Diamondbacks (19), San Francisco Giants (16)
Who else acquired votes? San Diego Padres (8), Chicago Cubs (7), Atlanta Braves (2), Cincinnati Reds (2), St. Louis Cardinals (1)
You picked all three of the groups that had been the favorites amongst our voters to be a wild card. Why will that be the NL wild-card subject? Effectively, first, I am a little bit shocked that the Giants had been such a well-liked choose. I consider them extra as a sleeper candidate, although I picked them, as nicely. This is the dynamic within the NL, circa 2024. You’ve the Braves and Dodgers on their very own stage with nobody else projected to be wherever close to them. On the different finish of the spectrum, you will have the Rockies and Nationals forecasted to be the league’s punching luggage. Then you will have the Phillies, who appear like the clear No. 3 within the league. Since Philly shares a division with Atlanta, that marks them because the probably of the NL’s wild-card candidates.
After that, there isn’t any eventual end-of-season order of the opposite 10 groups that will shock me. I just like the Diamondbacks as a group on the rise, one which needs to be higher than final season even when they do not catch lightning in a bottle once more at playoff time. And I just like the Giants for the standard bulk of their offseason acquisitions, the potential of Jung Hoo Lee to be a catalyst atop their lineup, their total depth and particularly the potential of a rotation led by an enormous three of Logan Webb, Blake Snell and the electrical Kyle Harrison. — Doolittle
How can the Padres disrupt the wild-card race to interchange one of many favored groups? The third wild-card spot within the NL may go to a half dozen groups, however I am taking the Padres primarily based on two elements: 1) Their beginning pitching is fairly good, particularly with Dylan Stop added to that rotation to go along with Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish, and a couple of) They nonetheless have a dynamic lineup 1-5. I believe Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. are poised for his or her greatest years ever. Even with the departure of Soto, I nonetheless suppose the Padres can rating sufficient runs, and mixed with their nice beginning pitching, they’ve an opportunity to safe a wild card within the loaded NL subject. They could have had too many mouths to feed final yr — however this yr, with fewer mouths to feed, I believe they will be higher. — Tim Kurkjian
NL champion
Our choose: Atlanta Braves (14 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Los Angeles Dodgers (6), Philadelphia Phillies (4), San Diego Padres (1), San Francisco Giants (1)
Make the case for the Dodgers to beat out the Braves for the pennant. The Braves and Dodgers are clearly the category of the NL proper now. Each have had their successes and failures in current playoff sequence, so as an alternative of specializing in if they are going to have the magical factor it takes to win within the postseason in 2024, I select to concentrate on how a lot better they will get within the second half. The Dodgers’ rotation depth may get a lot better (Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin Might, and Emmet Sheehan are all on the injured record proper now) and so they have a top-10 farm system, whereas Atlanta’s is within the backside 5. Loads will occur between now and the playoffs, however the Dodgers have much more room for error to repair what goes flawed. — McDaniel
Make the case for the Phillies. The Phillies will come into this season pushed by their shocking exit from final yr’s playoffs. On the time they had been knocked out, it appeared that they’d all the weather of a championship group, with a deep and highly effective lineup, an improved protection and a dominant postseason ace in Zack Wheeler — so their loss by the hands of the Diamondbacks should’ve gnawed at them possibly much more than dropping the World Sequence in 2022 did. That is going to be the chip on their shoulder all season, and so they know from current expertise that they are often nearly as good or higher than the Braves. The Phillies are an extremely harmful, extremely centered group, and so they’re aching to take the subsequent step. — Olney
World Sequence champion
Our choose: Atlanta Braves (13 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Baltimore Orioles (4), Los Angeles Dodgers (4), Philadelphia Phillies (2), Seattle Mariners (1), New York Yankees (1), Toronto Blue Jays (1)
Why will this be the Braves’ yr? This group is just too good and too highly effective to go down within the division sequence for a 3rd straight season — though avoiding Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola is likely to be a good suggestion. Crucial purpose why this would be the Braves’ yr is that the pitching employees is the very best one they’ve had this decade, a lot better and deeper than the 2021 World Sequence winners. The bullpen seems extraordinarily sturdy, which is able to permit supervisor Brian Snitker to again off his starters some within the common season to maintain them wholesome for October. And in Spencer Strider — proprietor of a brand new curveball — and Max Fried, they’ve a 1-2 punch that rivals any tandem in baseball and might shut down any lineup, together with the Dodgers. — Schoenfield
Regardless of their historic offseason, the Dodgers aren’t our favourite to win the title — however they’re yours. Why? All of us consider the Dodgers as that regular-season machine, a potential 100-win dynamo that has struggled at occasions to clear the postseason hurdle (nicely, apart from the shortened 2020 marketing campaign), however I truly see their 2024 roster as one in all their best-aligned for brief playoff sequence of any from the previous decade. Their offense is rock-solid, and have a look at that potential October rotation, assuming all goes nicely on the well being entrance: Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Kershaw and Bobby Miller, with Buehler, Might, Sheehan and Gavin Stone accessible as insurance coverage insurance policies if any of the entrance 4 is absent. What number of groups can declare a comparable postseason employees, at the least this far out? — Cockcroft
You had been the lone voter to decide on the Blue Jays to win the AL East, the pennant after which the World Sequence. Clarify why you are all-in on them. I’ve caught with the Jays since I noticed the approaching wave of kids of a few of the nice Corridor of Fame gamers I performed in opposition to. The Jays are in an attention-grabbing candy spot — they’ve younger expertise who at the moment are additionally skilled. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is clearly on a mission in 2024, understanding he wasn’t at his greatest a yr in the past, and so they nonetheless made the playoffs. Their rotation has plenty of arms and whereas each group’s pitching employees wants higher well being, the Blue Jays’ pitching was additionally a power final yr. They’ll win on the street, they beat up lefties and righties with out delight or prejudice and half their group is so athletic that they may very well be enjoying in March Insanity (and they’re in all probability nonetheless younger sufficient to be on a university group).
Now, the subsequent step for them, which I imagine they are going to take, is to carry out higher of their division. They proved they will beat the groups they’re purported to beat, however now, they should beat the favorites to totally understand they are the favorites. — Doug Glanville
AL MVP
Our choose: Juan Soto (8 votes), Julio Rodriguez (8)
Who else acquired votes? Gunnar Henderson (3), Adley Rutschman (2), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1), Bobby Witt Jr. (1), Corey Seager (1), Yordan Alvarez (1), Jose Ramirez (1)
Our voters had been tied between Soto and Rodriguez for AL MVP. Make the case for Soto. It is arduous to consider a greater match than Soto in Yankee pinstripes, enjoying beneath the brilliant lights of the largest metropolis in America. It virtually feels as if he was born for this. It can energize him, as will being solely a season away from his extremely anticipated run at free company. That, and the brief right-field porch in Yankee Stadium, may result in the very best offensive season of his profession. And with regards to separating himself from J-Rod, Soto can have one essential factor in his favor: a fellow celebrity in Choose batting behind him. — Gonzalez
Make the case for J-Rod. It got here all the way down to Soto and Rodriguez for me, too. I initially was going to select Soto — I additionally suppose he’ll have a monster season enjoying at Yankee Stadium, capitalizing on that brief porch and feeding off enjoying in New York. However I additionally suppose Choose goes to have one other MVP-caliber yr, which made me surprise if Soto and Choose would truly damage one another’s possibilities for the award. That led me to Rodriguez, a younger celebrity who nearly everyone believes will take the subsequent step this season, together with me. The Mariners needs to be actually good — that rotation is likely to be the very best within the majors — and Rodriguez needs to be the clear greatest participant. That mixture made him my choose. — Castillo
AL Rookie of the Yr
Our choose: Wyatt Langford (20 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Jackson Holliday (5), Evan Carter (1)
Langford simply made the Rangers’ Opening Day roster, however he’s already our favourite to win Rookie of the Yr. What makes him so particular? Langford’s teammates already are marveling on the entirety of the package deal he offers, from the linebacker’s physique — 6-foot-1, 225 kilos — to the house run energy to the superior swing selections. That he slipped to the fourth total choose in final July’s draft was as a lot a perform of the all-time class 2023 could also be, however fortune smiled on the Rangers, and beneath normal supervisor Chris Younger, their willingness to be aggressive is a guiding mild. They may’ve tried to govern Langford’s service time. As an alternative, they’re attempting to win one other World Sequence. — Passan
AL Cy Younger
Our choose: Corbin Burnes (10 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Pablo Lopez (6), Luis Castillo (4), Tarik Skubal (4), Kevin Gausman (1), Framber Valdez (1)
A number of AL pitchers obtained 4 or extra votes to win Cy Younger, with Burnes getting essentially the most at 10. Why was he your choose? Burnes is a quite stylish choose as a result of he gained the NL Cy Younger award for the 2021 Brewers, and his new group, the ascending Orioles, are coming off a 101-win season. Burnes is fourth in innings pitched over the previous three seasons and second in strikeouts, and with Gerrit Cole sidelined and Shohei Ohtani within the NL, he appears nearly as good a selection as any. — Karabell
Lopez was subsequent at 6 votes. Clarify why you selected him. Yr 1 in Minnesota was a rip-roaring success for Lopez, who elevated his strikeout whole by 60 from 2022 to ’23 (174 to 234) in the identical variety of begins (32). The league batted .184 and slugged .303 in opposition to his sweeper and curveball, which sported a ridiculous 96-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Along with his arrow pointing up, Lopez is poised for a 200-inning, 250-strikeout season that culminates within the Twins’ first Cy Younger winner since Johan Santana in 2006. — Hembekides
NL MVP
Our choose: Mookie Betts (14 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Ronald Acuna Jr. (6), Fernando Tatis Jr. (3), Freddie Freeman (2), BOF – Betts/Ohtani/Freeman (1)
Acuna isn’t our voters’ favourite right here, however you had been one in all six individuals to select him to win his second consecutive MVP. Clarify your reasoning. Acuna’s 40/73 season — 41 residence runs, 73 stolen bases — was statistically historic and helped him to his unanimous MVP choice in 2023, however here is what everyone seems to be overlooking: He would have been the MVP even when he had stolen 13 bases as an alternative of 73. He was the very best hitter within the NL, slashing .337/.416/.596, and he can do this once more for a transparent purpose: He lower his strikeout fee from 23.6% in 2021 and 2022 to 11.4% final yr. That is an actual, repeatable ability and it made him not solely one of many recreation’s prime sluggers however the sixth-most-difficult participant to strike out. He might not run as a lot this yr after tweaking his knee in spring coaching, however one other .330, 40-homer season means he can take residence MVP honors. — Schoenfield
BOF?! We will want to listen to your reasoning on this one. We’ve got to pause and understand what the Dodgers have put collectively on the prime of the order. It’s a three-headed legendary spirit animal that may accomplish something you’ll be able to think about on a baseball subject. You might subject a complete group with these three gamers. Betts may play 3B, SS, 2B, LF, RF, CF, C, in addition to be supervisor, hitting coach and GM. Ohtani may DH, pitch, break Statcast, hit or pitch baseballs in orbit and make peace with our Martian buddies (since he hit a baseball there for diplomatic functions). Freeman may simply fear about selecting up any unhealthy throws on his approach to 200 hits whereas working for mayor, governor and finally, president. (He has my vote.) These aren’t simply three wonderful gamers — they’re generational abilities.
I believed it may very well be enjoyable to trace the wonderful issues they do that season beneath the BOF umbrella. Since every part has a metric now, we should always personalize it. We may slap new adjectives on it and name it Ohtanic, Bettsositic and Freemantic, however higher to mix it into one metric, BOF, due to their potential altogether. Neglect MVP for a season, since there’s a good shot one in all these guys will win it — and the one purpose they might not (outdoors of Acuna additionally being legendary, and Soto being within the AL now) is as a result of they preserve knocking into one another. I want I may return and be a nine-hole hitter in entrance of these three. By no means once more would the 9 gap be so wonderful. Whoever hits ninth may rating 250 runs by simply respiration. — Glanville
NL Rookie of the Yr
Our choose: Jackson Chourio (9)
Who else acquired votes? Yoshinobu Yamamoto (6 votes), Jung Hoo Lee (6), Jackson Merrill (2), Paul Skenes (2), Shota Imanaga (1)
Why is Chourio your selection for Rookie of the Yr? I bear in mind when Chourio was having his breakout season in 2022 and I requested a professional scout how excessive up I ought to transfer him in my midseason prime 50 prospects replace. He argued for prime 10 and once I introduced up some issues, he stated: “Look, the scouts which have seen him suppose he has three 7s.” He means three of his 5 instruments (energy, velocity, arm) are a 7 on the 2-8 scale, or 70 on the 20-80 scale, whereas the opposite two may each be 60s. What number of guys within the huge leagues can match that? It is a single-digit quantity, and it is likely to be as small as three. Add on prime of that how extremely Milwaukee raves about Chourio’s make-up and it is arduous to justify selecting anybody else. — McDaniel
Yamamoto and Lee tied with six votes apiece. What makes Lee your choose? First off, Lee is enjoyable, and baseball wants extra enjoyable. He is quick and flashy and prepared for his second. He had a robust spring coaching, displaying extra energy than anticipated, and he looks like the kind of rookie who can are available and hit the bottom working. He won’t be the very best participant from this rookie class in 5 years — give that to Chourio — however he’ll be the very best one over the subsequent 6 ½ months. — Keown
NL Cy Younger
Our choose: Spencer Strider (15 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Zack Wheeler (7), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (1), Zac Gallen (1), Dylan Stop (1), Max Fried (1)
There’s extra of a transparent favourite within the NL Cy Younger subject than within the AL — and Strider’s it. Why? Primarily based on the standard of his stuff, he’ll in all probability lead the league in strikeouts once more. And primarily based on the standard of his teammates, he’ll in all probability lead the league in wins once more. However the separator may very well be a stronger end. Strider gathered a career-high 186 2/3 innings final season, greater than a 50-inning leap from the yr earlier than. However he appeared to put on down close to the top, posting a 5.67 ERA over his previous six regular-season begins. If not for that, he in all probability would’ve gained the Cy Younger in 2023. — Gonzalez
Opening Day is tomorrow, so you understand what which means — it is time for season predictions!
There are many questions going into the 2024 season: What does Yr 3 of MLB’s expanded playoffs have to supply? Will we proceed to see prime groups knocked out early? And is that this the yr your favourite group will make a run in October? Or your favourite participant will win a postseason award?
Nobody can definitively know what’s in retailer for this season, however that does not cease us from making our greatest guesses. We put 26 of ESPN’s MLB writers, analysts and editors on the spot to foretell what is going to occur in baseball this yr, from the wild-card contenders all the best way as much as the World Sequence champion, plus the MVP, Cy Younger and Rookie of the Yr in each leagues.
For every class, we have requested numerous our voters to clarify their picks. Did they hit the nail on the top or had been they means off their mark? Solely time can inform — and you understand we’ll be circling again to those predictions come October to see how nicely, or poorly, we did.
With out additional ado, let’s have a look at what our consultants needed to say.
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AL picks | NL picks | WS picks | AL awards | NL awards
AL East
Our choose: Baltimore Orioles (22 votes)
Who else acquired votes? New York Yankees (2), Tampa Bay Rays (1), Toronto Blue Jays (1)
The O’s are the overwhelming favourite to win the division. How do the Yankees beat them? By getting — and staying — wholesome. Accidents ravaged the Yankees’ 2023 season, and so they may once more in 2024. Gerrit Cole and DJ LeMahieu are already coping with setbacks. LeMahieu may miss the beginning of the season, however he ought to return quickly thereafter. Cole’s standing is extra unclear, and the Yankees’ postseason hopes probably rely on it. Assuming Cole returns someday earlier than the All-Star break and is efficient, the Yankees ought to win sufficient baseball video games to be in rivalry for the division title in the event that they keep wholesome elsewhere. They will rating loads of runs with Juan Soto and Aaron Choose within the lineup.
The Orioles, in the meantime, are loaded with younger expertise — and so they even went out and added ace Corbin Burnes throughout the offseason. They may very well be simply nearly as good, if not higher, than final season’s 101-win membership. However there are harm issues within the rotation behind Burnes and regression is all the time a chance. Their Pythagorean file in 2023 was 94-68, suggesting they overperformed by seven victories. It needs to be an in depth race. — Jorge Castillo
AL Central
Our choose: Minnesota Twins (16 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Detroit Tigers (5), Cleveland Guardians (3), Kansas Metropolis Royals (2)
4 of the 5 AL Central groups acquired votes to win the division. Why will the Twins take it? The Twins have the clearest path to a division title of any group within the American League, however do not simply take my phrase for it. At ESPN BET, Minnesota is the one AL membership listed as an odds-on favourite to win its division (-115). The quartet of Edouard Julien, Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis atop that lineup guarantees to be fierce (assuming good well being, in fact), whereas Pablo Lopez has emerged as a possible Cy Younger favourite within the league. Suffice it to say, the Twins have extra top-end expertise on their roster than some other membership within the AL Central. — Paul Hembekides
AL West
Our choose: Houston Astros (14 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Texas Rangers (8), Seattle Mariners (4)
Texas acquired eight votes, however Houston acquired 14. How will the Astros beat out their rivals for the division? The pre-All-Star break well being of the Texas rotation is the deciding issue for me in a race between two sturdy groups with out a lot separation between them. The Astros have owned the division for seven years now and there is not any clear purpose to count on them to fall off in 2024. Whereas the Rangers had the superior run differential in 2023, I believe they’re set as much as be a a lot better group after the break — although, by then, they may have some floor to make up. Houston additionally ended up with star nearer Josh Hader, another excuse to lean towards the Astros in a good chase. However it might in no way shock me to see these groups conflict in October for a second straight season. — Bradford Doolittle
How will the Rangers beat Houston? The Astros are literally in an identical boat to the Rangers by way of the accidents befalling their rotation. For Texas, Max Scherzer is predicted to be out till June, Tyler Mahle till July and Jacob deGrom till August. Houston ought to get Justin Verlander again quickly, however Jose Urquidy is out till at the least Might and Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia will not return till midseason. Which leaves the lineups and gloves. And for nearly as good as Houston is — and the Astros stay an excellent baseball group — no lineup within the AL can match the Rangers’, and their protection final postseason was immaculate. Add in Seattle, and the AL West goes to be one whale of a race. — Jeff Passan
Why do you suppose the Mariners will win? The Mariners missed out on profitable the division final season by simply two video games, so that they had been very a lot on par with the Astros and Rangers. Now, after three consecutive profitable seasons, they’re able to take one other step. As normal, Seattle did not spend some huge cash within the offseason, however their pickups on offense have an opportunity to be sneaky good. Jorge Polanco, Mitch Haniger and Mitch Garver present veteran and playoff expertise for a group that wants it. I am additionally selecting Julio Rodriguez to win MVP.
However let’s not bury the lede right here: Seattle’s power is on the mound, the place they added two extra abilities in righties Ryne Stanek and Gregory Santos — although, the latter is sidelined in the meanwhile. The Mariners’ greatest power is their rotation, and, at the least to start out the season, it is the very best within the division. — Jesse Rogers
AL wild playing cards
Our picks: New York Yankees (17 votes), Seattle Mariners (14), Texas Rangers (13)
Who else acquired votes? Houston Astros (12), Tampa Bay Rays (11), Toronto Blue Jays (6), Baltimore Orioles (3), Boston Purple Sox (2)
Lately, the Rays have gotten a majority of votes from our panel to make the playoffs. Why are they on the skin wanting on this yr? I consider the Rays as a group with wonderful huge league depth and minor league stock that additionally places gamers in roles the place they will succeed. It is by means of these items that the Rays make the most of each little edge — platooning non-star gamers, boasting numerous multi-positional sorts, having diversified seems out of the bullpen — to squeeze wins out of an extended season when every little benefit may imply a win or two. This results in them typically beating expectations within the common season.
Nevertheless, due to their payroll limitations, they typically haven’t got the aces or a number of star place gamers you see on groups that persistently win playoff sequence. That mixed with a down-cycle of star gamers (Tyler Glasnow was traded, Shane McClanahan is damage), the AL East being nearly as good as ever and the Rays having a good variety of accidents proper now are causes for the doubts this March. — Kiley McDaniel
Solely two voters selected the Purple Sox and also you had been one in all them. Why? Little question, on paper, the Purple Sox appear like the weakest group in a robust division, however my decidedly unscientific method to this train is that we’ll have some playoff turnover — as a result of we all the time do. A pair surprises needed to be so as, and the Purple Sox have an opportunity to be higher than everybody believes. Doolittle’s system provides them playoff odds of 21%, the offense scored extra runs than the Blue Jays final season — and is likely to be even stronger this yr — and I believe the Rays’ rotation accidents will catch as much as them this season. Sure, the Purple Sox will want their rotation to remain wholesome, but when it does, they will steal a wild card. — David Schoenfield
AL champion
Our choose: Baltimore Orioles (14 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Houston Astros (5), New York Yankees (4), Seattle Mariners (1), Toronto Blue Jays (1), Texas Rangers (1)
Why are the Orioles the favourite to win the AL pennant? It is as if evaluators have a look at the identical script after they discuss Baltimore, emphasizing the identical bold-faced phrase: expertise. Within the eyes of plenty of rival execs, the Orioles have far and away essentially the most expertise within the AL, with Adley Rutschman, who’s perceived to be the very best catcher within the sport; Gunnar Henderson, who gained Rookie of the Yr; and Jackson Holliday, who may win Rookie of the Yr if he is known as as much as the massive leagues quickly sufficient. And after we get to the commerce deadline, it is secure to imagine that new proprietor David Rubenstein will green-light the assets wanted for the entrance workplace to plug holes. — Buster Olney
You had been our solely voter to select the reigning World Sequence champions. Make the Rangers’ case. A charitable studying of the Rangers’ beginning rotation is that it’s in flux. Much less charitably, it may very well be disastrous. However that is solely momentary, and I believe the lineup is nice sufficient to hold the group by means of the early a part of the season till all of the accidents play themselves out — no assure, however these are predictions, in any case, and never guarantees. Scherzer will probably be again for another (final?) run earlier than the All-Star break and deGrom needs to be again in August. Within the meantime, the Rangers will preserve mashing, and supervisor Bruce Bochy will combine and match like he all the time does. Similar to final season, they will peak when it issues most. — Tim Keown
NL East
Our choose: Atlanta Braves (24 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Philadelphia Phillies (2)
Why do you suppose this would be the Phillies’ yr to usurp the Braves atop the division? The Phillies couldn’t match the Braves throughout the common season the previous two years, however then they topped them twice in October, which issues extra. Atlanta figures to play it safer throughout the common season and enter October better-rested than it has in previous seasons. Philadelphia has the higher rotation and bullpen and may edge Atlanta out as every group approaches 100 wins. — Eric Karabell
NL Central
Our choose: Chicago Cubs (16 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Cincinnati Reds (6), St. Louis Cardinals (2), Milwaukee Brewers (2)
The Cubs are the favourite to win the NL Central, regardless of lacking the playoffs final yr. What makes this yr completely different? It is a robust name between Cincinnati and Chicago to win the division, however the Reds have some accidents to start out the season and the Cubs have a extra skilled roster, so that they’re my choose to win it. However it’s going to go all the way down to the wire. On the floor, the Cubs gained 83 video games final season with a plus-96 run differential, and with almost the identical roster this yr and new supervisor Craig Counsell within the fold, they’re much less more likely to go away wins on the desk. A key pickup this offseason was Japanese pitcher Shota Imanaga, and he, together with the group’s deep farm system, will undoubtedly be wanted to contribute on the mound this yr. The Cubs are void of a number of true, top-end stars however have a great 40-man roster to endure the grind of an extended season. — Rogers
Make the case for the Reds to take the division. I mission the Nationwide League Central to be essentially the most wide-open division. I believe 86 wins may even internet a group the division title, and final yr, the Reds had been simply 4 wins shy of that quantity. Granted, I felt higher in regards to the Reds’ absurd prospect depth earlier than Noelvi Marte’s suspension and Matt McLain’s harm, however they nonetheless have each the uncooked expertise and prospect capital to make the trades they’d have to bolster their playoff possibilities. In the event that they made an enormous transfer for a pitcher, I believe they’d be broadly checked out as extra of a division favourite.— Tristan Cockcroft
NL West
Our choose: Los Angeles Dodgers (26 votes)
Not a single voter picked one other group to win the NL West. Why is that this a lock for the Dodgers? As a result of we have seen them do it with a lot much less. The 2024 Dodgers are imperfect — by way of their rotation stability and infield protection, particularly — however nowhere close to as flawed as they had been final yr, after they reeled off 100 wins and claimed their tenth division title in 11 years. They’ve already mastered the six-month common season, and now they’re the deepest and most proficient group in the complete sport, not to mention the NL West. There have been years when the Dodgers have been weak by means of this run. This isn’t a type of. — Alden Gonzalez
NL wild playing cards
Our picks: Philadelphia Phillies (23 votes), Arizona Diamondbacks (19), San Francisco Giants (16)
Who else acquired votes? San Diego Padres (8), Chicago Cubs (7), Atlanta Braves (2), Cincinnati Reds (2), St. Louis Cardinals (1)
You picked all three of the groups that had been the favorites amongst our voters to be a wild card. Why will that be the NL wild-card subject? Effectively, first, I am a little bit shocked that the Giants had been such a well-liked choose. I consider them extra as a sleeper candidate, although I picked them, as nicely. This is the dynamic within the NL, circa 2024. You’ve the Braves and Dodgers on their very own stage with nobody else projected to be wherever close to them. On the different finish of the spectrum, you will have the Rockies and Nationals forecasted to be the league’s punching luggage. Then you will have the Phillies, who appear like the clear No. 3 within the league. Since Philly shares a division with Atlanta, that marks them because the probably of the NL’s wild-card candidates.
After that, there isn’t any eventual end-of-season order of the opposite 10 groups that will shock me. I just like the Diamondbacks as a group on the rise, one which needs to be higher than final season even when they do not catch lightning in a bottle once more at playoff time. And I just like the Giants for the standard bulk of their offseason acquisitions, the potential of Jung Hoo Lee to be a catalyst atop their lineup, their total depth and particularly the potential of a rotation led by an enormous three of Logan Webb, Blake Snell and the electrical Kyle Harrison. — Doolittle
How can the Padres disrupt the wild-card race to interchange one of many favored groups? The third wild-card spot within the NL may go to a half dozen groups, however I am taking the Padres primarily based on two elements: 1) Their beginning pitching is fairly good, particularly with Dylan Stop added to that rotation to go along with Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish, and a couple of) They nonetheless have a dynamic lineup 1-5. I believe Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. are poised for his or her greatest years ever. Even with the departure of Soto, I nonetheless suppose the Padres can rating sufficient runs, and mixed with their nice beginning pitching, they’ve an opportunity to safe a wild card within the loaded NL subject. They could have had too many mouths to feed final yr — however this yr, with fewer mouths to feed, I believe they will be higher. — Tim Kurkjian
NL champion
Our choose: Atlanta Braves (14 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Los Angeles Dodgers (6), Philadelphia Phillies (4), San Diego Padres (1), San Francisco Giants (1)
Make the case for the Dodgers to beat out the Braves for the pennant. The Braves and Dodgers are clearly the category of the NL proper now. Each have had their successes and failures in current playoff sequence, so as an alternative of specializing in if they are going to have the magical factor it takes to win within the postseason in 2024, I select to concentrate on how a lot better they will get within the second half. The Dodgers’ rotation depth may get a lot better (Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin Might, and Emmet Sheehan are all on the injured record proper now) and so they have a top-10 farm system, whereas Atlanta’s is within the backside 5. Loads will occur between now and the playoffs, however the Dodgers have much more room for error to repair what goes flawed. — McDaniel
Make the case for the Phillies. The Phillies will come into this season pushed by their shocking exit from final yr’s playoffs. On the time they had been knocked out, it appeared that they’d all the weather of a championship group, with a deep and highly effective lineup, an improved protection and a dominant postseason ace in Zack Wheeler — so their loss by the hands of the Diamondbacks should’ve gnawed at them possibly much more than dropping the World Sequence in 2022 did. That is going to be the chip on their shoulder all season, and so they know from current expertise that they are often nearly as good or higher than the Braves. The Phillies are an extremely harmful, extremely centered group, and so they’re aching to take the subsequent step. — Olney
World Sequence champion
Our choose: Atlanta Braves (13 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Baltimore Orioles (4), Los Angeles Dodgers (4), Philadelphia Phillies (2), Seattle Mariners (1), New York Yankees (1), Toronto Blue Jays (1)
Why will this be the Braves’ yr? This group is just too good and too highly effective to go down within the division sequence for a 3rd straight season — though avoiding Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola is likely to be a good suggestion. Crucial purpose why this would be the Braves’ yr is that the pitching employees is the very best one they’ve had this decade, a lot better and deeper than the 2021 World Sequence winners. The bullpen seems extraordinarily sturdy, which is able to permit supervisor Brian Snitker to again off his starters some within the common season to maintain them wholesome for October. And in Spencer Strider — proprietor of a brand new curveball — and Max Fried, they’ve a 1-2 punch that rivals any tandem in baseball and might shut down any lineup, together with the Dodgers. — Schoenfield
Regardless of their historic offseason, the Dodgers aren’t our favourite to win the title — however they’re yours. Why? All of us consider the Dodgers as that regular-season machine, a potential 100-win dynamo that has struggled at occasions to clear the postseason hurdle (nicely, apart from the shortened 2020 marketing campaign), however I truly see their 2024 roster as one in all their best-aligned for brief playoff sequence of any from the previous decade. Their offense is rock-solid, and have a look at that potential October rotation, assuming all goes nicely on the well being entrance: Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Kershaw and Bobby Miller, with Buehler, Might, Sheehan and Gavin Stone accessible as insurance coverage insurance policies if any of the entrance 4 is absent. What number of groups can declare a comparable postseason employees, at the least this far out? — Cockcroft
You had been the lone voter to decide on the Blue Jays to win the AL East, the pennant after which the World Sequence. Clarify why you are all-in on them. I’ve caught with the Jays since I noticed the approaching wave of kids of a few of the nice Corridor of Fame gamers I performed in opposition to. The Jays are in an attention-grabbing candy spot — they’ve younger expertise who at the moment are additionally skilled. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is clearly on a mission in 2024, understanding he wasn’t at his greatest a yr in the past, and so they nonetheless made the playoffs. Their rotation has plenty of arms and whereas each group’s pitching employees wants higher well being, the Blue Jays’ pitching was additionally a power final yr. They’ll win on the street, they beat up lefties and righties with out delight or prejudice and half their group is so athletic that they may very well be enjoying in March Insanity (and they’re in all probability nonetheless younger sufficient to be on a university group).
Now, the subsequent step for them, which I imagine they are going to take, is to carry out higher of their division. They proved they will beat the groups they’re purported to beat, however now, they should beat the favorites to totally understand they are the favorites. — Doug Glanville
AL MVP
Our choose: Juan Soto (8 votes), Julio Rodriguez (8)
Who else acquired votes? Gunnar Henderson (3), Adley Rutschman (2), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1), Bobby Witt Jr. (1), Corey Seager (1), Yordan Alvarez (1), Jose Ramirez (1)
Our voters had been tied between Soto and Rodriguez for AL MVP. Make the case for Soto. It is arduous to consider a greater match than Soto in Yankee pinstripes, enjoying beneath the brilliant lights of the largest metropolis in America. It virtually feels as if he was born for this. It can energize him, as will being solely a season away from his extremely anticipated run at free company. That, and the brief right-field porch in Yankee Stadium, may result in the very best offensive season of his profession. And with regards to separating himself from J-Rod, Soto can have one essential factor in his favor: a fellow celebrity in Choose batting behind him. — Gonzalez
Make the case for J-Rod. It got here all the way down to Soto and Rodriguez for me, too. I initially was going to select Soto — I additionally suppose he’ll have a monster season enjoying at Yankee Stadium, capitalizing on that brief porch and feeding off enjoying in New York. However I additionally suppose Choose goes to have one other MVP-caliber yr, which made me surprise if Soto and Choose would truly damage one another’s possibilities for the award. That led me to Rodriguez, a younger celebrity who nearly everyone believes will take the subsequent step this season, together with me. The Mariners needs to be actually good — that rotation is likely to be the very best within the majors — and Rodriguez needs to be the clear greatest participant. That mixture made him my choose. — Castillo
AL Rookie of the Yr
Our choose: Wyatt Langford (20 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Jackson Holliday (5), Evan Carter (1)
Langford simply made the Rangers’ Opening Day roster, however he’s already our favourite to win Rookie of the Yr. What makes him so particular? Langford’s teammates already are marveling on the entirety of the package deal he offers, from the linebacker’s physique — 6-foot-1, 225 kilos — to the house run energy to the superior swing selections. That he slipped to the fourth total choose in final July’s draft was as a lot a perform of the all-time class 2023 could also be, however fortune smiled on the Rangers, and beneath normal supervisor Chris Younger, their willingness to be aggressive is a guiding mild. They may’ve tried to govern Langford’s service time. As an alternative, they’re attempting to win one other World Sequence. — Passan
AL Cy Younger
Our choose: Corbin Burnes (10 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Pablo Lopez (6), Luis Castillo (4), Tarik Skubal (4), Kevin Gausman (1), Framber Valdez (1)
A number of AL pitchers obtained 4 or extra votes to win Cy Younger, with Burnes getting essentially the most at 10. Why was he your choose? Burnes is a quite stylish choose as a result of he gained the NL Cy Younger award for the 2021 Brewers, and his new group, the ascending Orioles, are coming off a 101-win season. Burnes is fourth in innings pitched over the previous three seasons and second in strikeouts, and with Gerrit Cole sidelined and Shohei Ohtani within the NL, he appears nearly as good a selection as any. — Karabell
Lopez was subsequent at 6 votes. Clarify why you selected him. Yr 1 in Minnesota was a rip-roaring success for Lopez, who elevated his strikeout whole by 60 from 2022 to ’23 (174 to 234) in the identical variety of begins (32). The league batted .184 and slugged .303 in opposition to his sweeper and curveball, which sported a ridiculous 96-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Along with his arrow pointing up, Lopez is poised for a 200-inning, 250-strikeout season that culminates within the Twins’ first Cy Younger winner since Johan Santana in 2006. — Hembekides
NL MVP
Our choose: Mookie Betts (14 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Ronald Acuna Jr. (6), Fernando Tatis Jr. (3), Freddie Freeman (2), BOF – Betts/Ohtani/Freeman (1)
Acuna isn’t our voters’ favourite right here, however you had been one in all six individuals to select him to win his second consecutive MVP. Clarify your reasoning. Acuna’s 40/73 season — 41 residence runs, 73 stolen bases — was statistically historic and helped him to his unanimous MVP choice in 2023, however here is what everyone seems to be overlooking: He would have been the MVP even when he had stolen 13 bases as an alternative of 73. He was the very best hitter within the NL, slashing .337/.416/.596, and he can do this once more for a transparent purpose: He lower his strikeout fee from 23.6% in 2021 and 2022 to 11.4% final yr. That is an actual, repeatable ability and it made him not solely one of many recreation’s prime sluggers however the sixth-most-difficult participant to strike out. He might not run as a lot this yr after tweaking his knee in spring coaching, however one other .330, 40-homer season means he can take residence MVP honors. — Schoenfield
BOF?! We will want to listen to your reasoning on this one. We’ve got to pause and understand what the Dodgers have put collectively on the prime of the order. It’s a three-headed legendary spirit animal that may accomplish something you’ll be able to think about on a baseball subject. You might subject a complete group with these three gamers. Betts may play 3B, SS, 2B, LF, RF, CF, C, in addition to be supervisor, hitting coach and GM. Ohtani may DH, pitch, break Statcast, hit or pitch baseballs in orbit and make peace with our Martian buddies (since he hit a baseball there for diplomatic functions). Freeman may simply fear about selecting up any unhealthy throws on his approach to 200 hits whereas working for mayor, governor and finally, president. (He has my vote.) These aren’t simply three wonderful gamers — they’re generational abilities.
I believed it may very well be enjoyable to trace the wonderful issues they do that season beneath the BOF umbrella. Since every part has a metric now, we should always personalize it. We may slap new adjectives on it and name it Ohtanic, Bettsositic and Freemantic, however higher to mix it into one metric, BOF, due to their potential altogether. Neglect MVP for a season, since there’s a good shot one in all these guys will win it — and the one purpose they might not (outdoors of Acuna additionally being legendary, and Soto being within the AL now) is as a result of they preserve knocking into one another. I want I may return and be a nine-hole hitter in entrance of these three. By no means once more would the 9 gap be so wonderful. Whoever hits ninth may rating 250 runs by simply respiration. — Glanville
NL Rookie of the Yr
Our choose: Jackson Chourio (9)
Who else acquired votes? Yoshinobu Yamamoto (6 votes), Jung Hoo Lee (6), Jackson Merrill (2), Paul Skenes (2), Shota Imanaga (1)
Why is Chourio your selection for Rookie of the Yr? I bear in mind when Chourio was having his breakout season in 2022 and I requested a professional scout how excessive up I ought to transfer him in my midseason prime 50 prospects replace. He argued for prime 10 and once I introduced up some issues, he stated: “Look, the scouts which have seen him suppose he has three 7s.” He means three of his 5 instruments (energy, velocity, arm) are a 7 on the 2-8 scale, or 70 on the 20-80 scale, whereas the opposite two may each be 60s. What number of guys within the huge leagues can match that? It is a single-digit quantity, and it is likely to be as small as three. Add on prime of that how extremely Milwaukee raves about Chourio’s make-up and it is arduous to justify selecting anybody else. — McDaniel
Yamamoto and Lee tied with six votes apiece. What makes Lee your choose? First off, Lee is enjoyable, and baseball wants extra enjoyable. He is quick and flashy and prepared for his second. He had a robust spring coaching, displaying extra energy than anticipated, and he looks like the kind of rookie who can are available and hit the bottom working. He won’t be the very best participant from this rookie class in 5 years — give that to Chourio — however he’ll be the very best one over the subsequent 6 ½ months. — Keown
NL Cy Younger
Our choose: Spencer Strider (15 votes)
Who else acquired votes? Zack Wheeler (7), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (1), Zac Gallen (1), Dylan Stop (1), Max Fried (1)
There’s extra of a transparent favourite within the NL Cy Younger subject than within the AL — and Strider’s it. Why? Primarily based on the standard of his stuff, he’ll in all probability lead the league in strikeouts once more. And primarily based on the standard of his teammates, he’ll in all probability lead the league in wins once more. However the separator may very well be a stronger end. Strider gathered a career-high 186 2/3 innings final season, greater than a 50-inning leap from the yr earlier than. However he appeared to put on down close to the top, posting a 5.67 ERA over his previous six regular-season begins. If not for that, he in all probability would’ve gained the Cy Younger in 2023. — Gonzalez