Fantasy baseball analyst Dalton Del Don gives up a sequence of draft-bust candidates per place — subsequent up, the outfielders.
Robert is without doubt one of the greatest fantasy hitters when wholesome, however his companies now price a top-30 decide coming off the primary season by which he reached 100 video games performed throughout his profession. He sprained his MCL late final season, and whereas Robert ought to be absolutely wholesome coming into 2024, it’s yet one more so as to add to a protracted listing of accidents he’s suffered over the previous couple of years. Hitting in a White Sox lineup projected to be proper there with the A’s among the many lowest-scoring groups within the league additionally received’t assist, however well being is the principle motive Robert is a dangerous fantasy decide.
Trout goes as a high 50 decide in Yahoo leagues, which is just too excessive for somebody in decline and with so many well being questions. He’s coming off simply the worst season of his profession, ending along with his lowest wRC+ (134) and highest Okay% (28.7) ever. Trout hasn’t appeared in additional than 140 video games since 2016 and has missed a mean of 83 video games during the last three seasons. He’s definitely able to a bounce-back marketing campaign on the plate (for what it is price, he has a 39.5 Okay% in spring), however the 32-year-old is a giant threat at his ADP.
Choose is baseball’s greatest hitter and is favored to steer MLB in wRC+, however simply notice you’re accepting added well being threat along with your top-10 decide. Perhaps stories of Choose requiring “fixed upkeep” on his toe for the remainder of his profession had been overblown, however he’s coming into the season banged up. Choose returned to the Yankees’ lineup Wednesday, however he is missed 50+ video games in three of the previous 5 (full) MLB seasons (and greater than half of the COVID 12 months), so he is a dangerous top-15 decide.
Bellinger’s Onerous-Hit% ranked within the backside 10% of the league final season when his common fly-ball exit velocity dropped for the third straight 12 months. He had 26 homers on simply 26 barrels and the identical hard-hit fee as Jon Berti. Bellinger has additionally missed a mean of 39 video games during the last three seasons. He ranked lifeless final by a major margin in wRC+ (61) amongst 151 hitters with 900 plate appearances from 2021-2022 earlier than 2023’s contract 12 months.
Fantasy managers are relying on Bellinger’s new method being sustainable whereas drafting him as a top-55 participant, mistakenly forward of Christian Yelich, Royce Lewis and Oneil Cruz, amongst others.
Jones was a fantasy revelation final 12 months, going 20/20 in fewer than 425 ABs after destroying Triple-A pitching (183 wRC+). He’s slated to hit in the course of the Rockies’ lineup and in MLB’s greatest hitter’s park. However it ought to be cautioned that Jones’ .401 BABIP was one of many 10 highest seasons since 1945! Whereas Coors Discipline boosts batting common on balls in play because of its spacious outfield dimensions, Jones remarkably owned a .434 BABIP on the highway.
To say that is unsustainable (with a close to 30% Okay fee) could be an understatement.
[2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP]
Whereas most Colorado hitters carry out abnormally worse away from house (given the variations in elevation), Jones recorded a 148 wRC+ on the highway in comparison with 122 in Coors Discipline. He was hitting .276 with 13 homers and eight steals earlier than batting .349 with seven HRs and 12 SBs in September (when pitching usually will get softer as rosters develop). THE BAT X initiatives a 105 wRC+ and modest counting stats (71 RBI) thanks partly to the Rockies’ poor lineup, but Jones is being drafted as a top-60 decide in Yahoo drafts. That’s a giant guess on a participant with a brief monitor document coming off a historic outlier efficiency.
Nimmo’s flooring appears protected, and a transfer from middle to left area may assist hold him wholesome. However he additionally possesses modest 20-homer upside and has by no means reached 10 steals or 70 RBI throughout any season in his eight-year profession. Nimmo is now on the incorrect facet of 30 with previous sturdiness points, so his ADP shouldn’t be greater than Jarren Duran’s.
Schwarber’s BABIP dropped to a career-low .209 final season regardless of the brand new infield shift guidelines. That’s nearly sure to regress in 2024, nevertheless it’s merely arduous to construct a fantasy crew round somebody who’s hit .219 over 2,084 plate appearances since 2020. There’s zero probability I’m drafting Schwarber forward of Christian Yelich and even Teoscar Hernández, who’s obtainable 40+ picks later.
Thomas had a improbable fantasy marketing campaign final 12 months whereas going 20/20, nevertheless it required 682 plate appearances and got here with poor protection and a 109 wRC+ (86 within the second half, in the event you’re into that form of factor). Projection techniques are calling for regression in 2024, but Thomas is being drafted aggressively as a top-25 outfielder.