The ultimate buying and selling week of the month, the quarter, and the primary half of 2024 will greet traders with a key inflation studying, a lightweight smattering of company outcomes, and a rush to superlatives to characterize one other consensus-busting interval for markets.Friday morning will carry traders the Might studying on the Private Consumption Expenditures (PCE) worth index, the Fed’s most popular inflation measure, which ought to present costs on a “core” foundation — which excludes meals and vitality — rose 0.1% final month. This may mark the slowest month-to-month rise since final November.On an annual foundation, core PCE inflation ought to bounce 2.6%, the least since March 2021.Earlier this month, the Shopper Value Index (CPI) confirmed inflation persevering with to chill, a report that bolstered investor bets the Federal Reserve would minimize charges later this yr. Fed forecasts launched June 12 confirmed the central financial institution expects to chop charges a minimum of as soon as in 2024.The earnings calendar will stay in a lull this week, and outcomes from FedEx (FDX) on Tuesday, Micron (MU) on Wednesday, and Nike (NKE) on Thursday will function highlights.Micron’s report might be most carefully watched for indicators of how sturdy AI demand stays throughout its portfolio. Nike’s report comes at a vital time for the retailer, which has seen shares fall 11% this yr as it really works to fend off competitors in its core athletic footwear market from rivals like Adidas and relative upstarts like On (ONON) and Deckers’s (DECK) Hoka model.Outdoors of market hours, some investor consideration will even seemingly be paid to Thursday evening’s presidential debate between President Biden and former President Donald Trump, the primary of two debates at the moment scheduled between the presumptive nominees.One other AI rallyLast yr, the AI commerce took markets by storm. The S&P 500 rose over 22%, and the Nasdaq gained almost 40%.Coming into 2024, probably the most well-liked calls on Wall Avenue was that this rally would broaden, bringing in lagging sectors of the market that had been neglected amid final yr’s “AI Every little thing” rally.By way of the primary months of 2024, nonetheless, little has modified.The efficiency unfold between the S&P 500 and Nasdaq has narrowed — the S&P 500 is over 14% this yr, the Nasdaq over 17% — however the Dow stays a laggard, rising simply 3.8% thus far in 2024.In the meantime, AI-related performs like Nvidia (NVDA), Tremendous Micro Pc (SMCI), Broadcom (AVGO), and the aforementioned Micron are among the many finest performers within the S&P 500 thus far this yr. AI-related vitality performs Vistra (VST) and Constellation (CEG) are additionally among the many finest performers within the index yr to this point.Story continues”The rally within the first half of the yr confirmed worth in ‘staying the course,'” wrote John Stoltzfus, chief funding strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Administration.”In our view, the sharp reversal within the route of bond yields in late 2023 and the attendant rally in shares since that point illustrates the significance of investor endurance and adherence to diversified portfolio allocations. Equities have made additional positive factors in Q2 regardless of proof of financial slowing. The rally in fairness markets in This fall that continued effectively into the primary half of this yr highlights the necessity to keep invested.”Merchants work on the ground of the New York Inventory Change throughout morning buying and selling on Might 24, 2024 in New York Metropolis. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Pictures) (Michael M. Santiago by way of Getty Pictures)4 themes for 2024In fashionable markets, for higher or worse, earnings seasons do not actually finish.However as Wall Avenue strategists look to place a bow on first quarter earnings with second quarter outcomes about to come back in beginning after the July 4 vacation, Dubravko Lakos-Bujas and the fairness technique group at JPMorgan highlighted 4 key themes in a observe to shoppers on Friday morning.The primary, in fact, is AI.AI funding, methods, and all method of references peppered earnings calls all through the quarter. Information from FactSet confirmed 199 members of the S&P 500 talked about AI on their earnings calls by way of late Might.JPMorgan’s group famous firms stay “constructive across the AI theme making bulletins of further capex spend, new AI fashions and updates on ongoing group reorientation in direction of offering AI merchandise.”The second theme is weight-loss medication.One of the best-performing shares within the S&P 500 this yr are principally targeted on AI performs. Sitting on the eighth-best year-to-date positive factors of 52% is Eli Lilly (LLY), producer of the favored weight reduction medication Mounjaro and Zepbound.Eli Lilly is now additionally the eighth-largest firm within the S&P 500 with a market cap north of $800 billion.The US client is the third key theme popping out of earnings season.Particularly, what JPMorgan known as “rising caveats on the extent of resilience given client pushback on pricing, trade-downs and value-seeking conduct particularly amongst low-income customers.”As Walmart (WMT) CFO John David Rainey advised Yahoo Finance again in Might, “We see that wallets are nonetheless stretched, [customers are] nonetheless in search of worth.”Final week, retail gross sales information for Might confirmed gross sales rose at a slower tempo than forecast, whereas April’s gross sales had been revised down sharply. At the least one economist mentioned this report provides to “indicators that [consumers] are struggling a little bit.”With client spending accounting for round two-thirds of US GDP progress, how cautiously — or boldly — consumers are reaching into their wallets is at all times a key enter for traders.A Walmart truck pulls right into a Walmart Distribution Middle in Hurricane, Utah, on Might 30, 2024. (GEORGE FREY/AFP by way of Getty Pictures) (GEORGE FREY by way of Getty Pictures)The ultimate theme flagged by JPMorgan’s group was “expense administration,” which, like AI, is one other holdover from prior years.In 2022, as tech shares obtained whacked with charges rising, layoffs started to comb an trade that had aggressively scooped up expertise in 2020-21. Continued clean-up on prices in 2023 helped traders develop enthusiastic about revenue margins heading into 2024.And administration groups nonetheless have loads of cowl from the broader setting to proceed slimming down their worker ranks or pulling again on different bills.”We additionally stay targeted on long-term efforts to durably reengineer our price base,” Alphabet (GOOG) CEO Sundar Pichai advised traders in late April.”We proceed to handle our headcount progress and align groups with our highest-priority areas. This hurries up choice making, reduces layers, and permits us to spend money on the appropriate areas.”On the finish of its first quarter, Alphabet employed about 10,000 fewer folks than a yr in the past. Earlier this month, the tech behemoth introduced it had employed a brand new CFO.Weekly calendarMondayEconomic information: Dallas Fed Manufacturing, June (-14.9 anticipated, -19.4 beforehand)Earnings: No notable earnings scheduled for launch.TuesdayEconomic information: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller dwelling costs, April (+0.33% month-over-month beforehand); FHFA dwelling worth index, April (+0.1% month-over-month beforehand); Convention Board Shopper Confidence, June (100 anticipated, 102 beforehand); Richmond Fed manufacturing, June (0 beforehand)Earnings: FedEx (FDX), Carnival (CCL), TD SYNNEX (SNX), Progress Software program (PRGS)WednesdayEconomic information: MBA mortgage purposes, week of June 21 (+0.9% beforehand); New dwelling gross sales, Might (+2.5% anticipated, -4.7% beforehand)Earnings: Micron (MU), BlackBerry (BB), Basic Mills (GIS), Paychex (PAYX), Levi Strauss (LEVI), Jefferies (JEF), Concentrix (CNXC), AeroVironment (AVAV), MillerKnoll (MLKN)ThursdayEconomic information: First quarter GDP, third estimate (+1.4% annualized charge anticipated, +1.3% beforehand); Preliminary jobless claims, week of June 22 (238,000 beforehand); Sturdy items orders, Might (+0.1% anticipated, +0.6% beforehand); Pending dwelling gross sales, Might (-7.7% beforehand): Kansas Metropolis Fed manufacturing exercise, June (-2 beforehand)Earnings: Nike (NKE), Walgreens (WBA), McCormick (MKC), Acuity Manufacturers (AYI), American Outside Manufacturers (AOUT)FridayEconomic information: PCE inflation, month-over-month, Might (+0% anticipated, +0.3% beforehand); PCE inflation, year-over-year, Might (+2.6% anticipated, +2.7% beforehand); Core PCE inflation, month-over-month, Might (+0.1% anticipated, +0.2% beforehand); Core PCE inflation, year-over-over, Might (+2.6% anticipated, +2.8% beforehand); Private revenue, Might (+0.4% anticipated, +0.3% beforehand); Private spending, Might (+0.3% anticipated, +0.2% beforehand); College of Michigan client sentiment, June (65.8 anticipated, 65.6 beforehand)Earnings: No notable earnings scheduled for launch.Correction: An earlier model of this story referred to Jonathan Golub, not John Stoltzfus, as chief market strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Administration. Golub is a strategist at UBS.