LEXINGTON — Kentucky basketball profitable its ninth nationwide championship could be a dream come true for the staff’s fervent fan base. It additionally could be the worst nightmare for 2 of America’s largest sportsbooks.
The Wildcats are the most important legal responsibility for BetMGM and DraftKings. At BetMGM, UK leads the nation in ticket proportion (the p.c of complete bets) at 11.6 and is second in deal with proportion (the p.c of complete cash) at 13.0, trailing solely defending nationwide champion UConn (14.6%), with each figures as of Monday. Kentucky is tops nationally in each classes at DraftKings, with 18% of tickets and 24% of the deal with firstly of this week.
Not surprisingly, these numbers are much more pronounced within the Bluegrass State. Greater than 70% of bets made inside Kentucky at BetMGM are on the Wildcats to win all of it, accounting for 75% of the whole cash wagered. These percentages are even larger at DraftKings: 75% of bets in Kentucky are on coach John Calipari’s staff to seize the 2024 NCAA Event title, which is 81% of the deal with.
Regardless of the abundance of bets positioned on UK, there’s nonetheless worth to be discovered, Steve Bittenbender mentioned.
“For a futures market — the place they’re profitable the nationwide title — I’d advocate that for anybody,” mentioned Bittenbender, a author and analyst for BetKentucky.com. “I’d advocate, although, that they do it inside cause. Kentucky’s odds are fairly profitable, relying on which sportsbook you go to.
“And the good factor with futures odds are, you get the percentages as they’re set at the moment. So for those who are available in and take the wager at 30-1, you are locked into these 30-1 odds for the remainder of the season. … If Kentucky comes by way of this 12 months, it is going to create a pleasant, sizable prize for (bettors) in the event that they find yourself reducing the nets down in April.”
Due to how a lot roster turnover the Wildcats usually expertise every year, Bittenbender admits they’re “robust to evaluate” as a bettor.
“However, on the identical time, you have to have a look at who Kentucky brings in. They’re all the time bringing in a high (recruiting) class,” he mentioned. “You are not gamers on the backside of the highest 50 or something like that. You are wanting on the elite of the elite. In order that helps in some respects.”
Whereas the Wildcats’ nationwide championship odds differ — from 22-1 at BetMGM and DraftKings to 35-1 at FanDuel — Bittenbender has a principle: He believes their odds, 12 months in and 12 months out, “most likely are a bit of shorter” than a staff of an identical profile.
“Simply due to the backing that they’ve, anybody who’s a Kentucky fan might be going to wager on Kentucky to win the nationwide title — particularly right here in Kentucky,” he mentioned. “I feel there are only a few who do not assume Kentucky’s a nationwide contender every 12 months. … That may have an effect on (a sportsbook that claims), ‘OK, as a substitute of being 20-1, we’ll bump them right down to a 15-1 shot simply to lower our legal responsibility a bit of bit.'”
Drilling into wagering on particular UK video games, Bittenbender highlighted arguably the staff’s defining trait: its high-flying offense. The Wildcats common almost 90 factors per sport, which ranks third in Division I. Due to that, Bittenbender mentioned “the over all the time is in play” when Kentucky takes the courtroom.
However he cautioned UK followers “who reside and die with every loss” to take a deep breath.
Let cooler heads prevail earlier than inserting a wager.
“In case you go on (X, the platform previously often called) Twitter to publish, ‘Fireplace Calipari’ or one thing like that, I would not essentially advocate that you simply wager on Kentucky,” he mentioned. “However for those who’re in a position to face up to the losses and perceive that is how a season goes, then I’d don’t have any downside saying, ‘OK, go forward and wager in your staff to win.'”
Attain Kentucky males’s basketball and soccer reporter Ryan Black at rblack@gannett.com and observe him on X at @RyanABlack.