The “what if” query. It’s been contemplated by sports activities followers for ages. What if this participant or that participant had been wholesome for his whole profession? What would possibly’ve been?
In baseball, there’s an abundance of examples. What if Mickey Mantle hadn’t suffered so many accidents, particularly to his knees? Would he have turn out to be the best all-around baseball participant who ever lived? What if Ken Griffey Jr. hadn’t been affected by so many illnesses later in his profession? Would he have set the all-time profession house run document?
We might rattle off a number of different names of gamers all through historical past who we wished had been in a position to keep wholesome. However these gamers aren’t within the sport right this moment. With the latest accidents to Mike Trout and Byron Buxton (who returned to motion on Saturday), we ask: Which names symbolize the most important “what ifs” amongst energetic gamers?
Accidents occur. Most gamers have had a number of stints on the injured listing. Nevertheless it’s fascinating to think about what may need been if sure energetic gamers had been wholesome all alongside. Right here’s a take a look at 9 energetic stars we want had by no means gotten harm, in addition to the place they could be right this moment in the event that they hadn’t.
Word: For hitters, we’re basing house run projections on 550 at-bats per season within the years they missed important time. For pitchers, we’re basing strikeout projections on 750 batters confronted per season within the years they missed important time.
Probably future Corridor of Famers who may need been even higher
Mike Trout, CF, Angels
Right here’s the large fish — er, Trout — on this class. The three-time American League MVP, thought of for a few years one of the best participant within the sport, hasn’t performed in additional than 140 video games in a season since 2016. He’s missed important time as a consequence of thumb, calf, again, hand, wrist and knee accidents, the latest being a torn meniscus in his left knee.
What he’s completed: 2012 AL Rookie of the Yr, 3-time AL MVP, 11-time All-Star, nine-time Silver Slugger Award winner, two-time All-Star Sport MVP, 378 house runs, 212 steals, 86.3 bWAR
The place he could be with out accidents: 4-time AL MVP, 467 house runs, 100 bWAR
This assumes Trout would have accomplished the 2017 season with considerably extra WAR than AL MVP Jose Altuve (Altuve had 7.7 bWAR, Trout was on tempo for over 9). The house run determine is predicated on what number of Trout would have hit in 550 at-bats per season from 2017-19, and ’21-’23 (pandemic-shortened 2020 marketing campaign excluded), utilizing the common price at which he really hit them — a homer each 12.1 at-bats. The bWAR calculation consists of an mixture of the WAR he would’ve racked up in 150 video games in every of these years on the price he was going.
What could also be forward: He’s nonetheless Mike Trout and he’s nonetheless solely 32, which signifies that, barring main damage, it’s protected to venture that he’ll end his profession with between 500 and 600 house runs. And provided that his present contract runs by 2030, he might end with someplace north of 120 bWAR. That might rank among the many prime 15 gamers all-time.
Bryce Harper, 1B, Phillies
Harper performed 12 Main League seasons main as much as the 2024 marketing campaign, and in all however three of them, he appeared in fewer than 150 video games. He’s had a myriad of accidents through the years, together with wrist, hand, thumb, face, again, foot, shoulder, forearm and elbow illnesses.
What he’s completed: 2012 NL Rookie of the Yr, 2-time NL MVP, 7-time All-Star, 3-time Silver Slugger Award winner, 2022 NLCS MVP, 316 house runs
The place he could be with out accidents: 3-time NL MVP, 9-time All-Star, 360 house runs
In most of the seasons by which Harper missed important time, it’s exhausting to venture that he would’ve gained an MVP Award given the numbers of the participant who gained it. However Harper might have given Paul Goldschmidt a run for his cash in 2022. As for the homers, we venture 44 greater than his precise whole given his common at-bats-per-home run price of 18.9 within the seasons he had fewer than 550 at-bats (excluding his rookie 12 months and 2020).
What could also be forward: It’s simple to neglect that Harper is just 31. His present contract runs by 2031, which might be his age-38 season. It’s not possible to foretell future accidents, however assuming Harper performs in round 1,000 extra video games (125 video games per season), we might see him end with someplace between 450 and 500 homers, and even perhaps one other MVP Award alongside the way in which.
Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Dodgers
Kershaw will go down as one of many two biggest beginning pitchers in Dodgers historical past (together with Sandy Koufax) if not the biggest. He’s had a profession that would make him a first-ballot choice to the Corridor of Fame. However what would possibly he have carried out if it hadn’t been for shoulder, elbow and again accidents, amongst others?
What he’s completed: 3-time NL Cy Younger Award winner, 2014 NL MVP, 5 ERA titles, 10-time All-Star, 2020 World Collection champion, 2,944 strikeouts (Dodgers document)
The place he could be with out accidents: 5-time NL Cy Younger Award winner, 7 ERA titles, 3,279 strikeouts
Kershaw hasn’t made greater than 28 begins in a season since 2015. In ’16, he would have gained the ERA title if he certified, posting a 1.69 ERA in 21 begins. He would’ve competed for an additional in ’22, when he had a 2.28 ERA in 22 begins. Each years might properly have earned him one other Cy Younger Award. And primarily based on his common strikeout price of 28.5% within the years he missed important time, we added 335 strikeouts to his tally, assuming he would have confronted 750 batters per season.
What could also be forward: Kershaw re-signed with the Dodgers this previous offseason and is recovering from shoulder surgical procedure. He’s on observe to make his season debut after the All-Star break. Now 36, the left-hander might not have all that a lot time earlier than he decides to retire, however provided that he’s been in a position to stay one of many sport’s finest regardless of his age and accidents, who is aware of? He actually has a fantastic likelihood to turn out to be the twentieth pitcher in AL/NL historical past to eclipse 3,000 strikeouts.
Different stars who’ve been restricted by damage
Jacob deGrom, RHP, Rangers
From 2018-20, deGrom had one of many biggest stretches by a beginning pitcher in MLB historical past. Over that span, he posted a 2.10 ERA and 0.94 WHIP, struck out a 3rd of the batters he confronted and gained a pair of Cy Younger Awards. Within the 4 years since, he’s made a complete of 32 begins as a consequence of persistent shoulder and elbow issues.
What he’s completed: 2014 NL Rookie of the Yr, 2-time NL Cy Younger Award winner, ERA title, 4-time All-Star, 1,652 strikeouts
The place he could be with out accidents: 4-time Cy Younger Award winner, 3 ERA titles, 7-time All-Star, 1,907 strikeouts
deGrom was in such a zone when the accidents started piling up that it’s exhausting to not suppose he would have gained one other Cy Younger Award or two by this level. The identical goes for the ERA titles. That he would have been an All-Star in every of the final three seasons if wholesome additionally appears to be a reasonably protected assumption. And given his common strikeout price of 34% over the seasons by which he was sidelined, he’d doubtless be closing in on 2,000 strikeouts.
What could also be forward: Hopefully, deGrom will return to the Rangers’ rotation after the All-Star break, as anticipated, after which have a comparatively wholesome few seasons forward. If he does, he might actually find yourself with someplace between 2,000 and a couple of,500 strikeouts and probably even a 3rd Cy Younger Award.
Aaron Choose, CF, Yankees
When Choose set a brand new AL single-season house run document with 62 in 2022, we had been assured that he might take one other run at 60-plus homers within the years forward. He was on tempo in ’23, however a toe damage price him almost two months of the season. It wasn’t the primary time the fearsome slugger had been sidelined — he additionally missed time with wrist, indirect, shoulder, calf, again and hip accidents earlier in his profession.
What he’s completed: 2017 AL Rookie of the Yr, 2022 AL MVP, AL single-season house run document (62 in 2022), 5-time All-Star, 3-time Silver Slugger Award winner, 269 house runs
The place he could be with out accidents: 2-time AL MVP, 6-time All-Star, 317 house runs
Would Choose have edged Shohei Ohtani and gained a second consecutive MVP Award final 12 months? It’s actually potential given he was on tempo to problem the 60-homer mark once more. With the frequency of Choose’s homers and with 550 at-bats in 2018, ’19 and ’23, he might have been closing in on 350 in ’24.
What could also be forward: Choose is in his age-32 marketing campaign, however once more, given the speed at which he homers — it was as soon as each 9.9 at-bats in 2023 — we might see some prodigious numbers in that division within the coming years. The five hundred house run membership is not out of the query for probably the most feared slugger within the sport right this moment, however he’ll want to remain on the sector sufficient to have an opportunity.
Giancarlo Stanton, DH, Yankees
Together with his chiseled physique and ferocious swing, Stanton has wowed us together with his mammoth house runs for 15 seasons. However whereas he has amassed greater than 400 of them, he’s solely performed in 150 or extra video games in a season 3 times. Hamstring, knee, Achilles, quad, calf and different accidents have critically restricted his availability.
What he’s completed: 2017 NL MVP, 5-time All-Star, 2-time Silver Slugger Award winner, 2022 All-Star Sport MVP, 413 house runs
The place he could be with out accidents: 2-time MVP, 8-time All-Star, 528 house runs
This case is especially attention-grabbing as a result of if Stanton had been wholesome sufficient to play in 150 video games a season whereas homering on the identical price as he really did within the seasons he missed important time, he’d have a fantastic likelihood to turn out to be the tenth participant in AL/NL historical past to eclipse the 600-homer milestone. You may actually think about one other MVP Award alongside the way in which, particularly if he threatened teammate Choose’s single-season AL house run document of 62.
What could also be forward: Stanton might actually nonetheless be a part of the 500-homer membership, however he’ll need to be comparatively wholesome for just a few extra seasons. At age 34, he’s assured three extra years on his contract, that means he’ll have to common about 25 homers per season to get there. That’s very doable for Stanton, who averaged 30 homers over the past three injury-plagued campaigns.
Chris Sale, LHP, Braves
It’s exhausting to imagine that Sale hasn’t gained a Cy Younger Award over his 14-year MLB profession. The left-hander has, at instances, been among the many most dominant beginning pitchers within the sport. A significant purpose he isn’t extra embellished is accidents, significantly since 2019. Since then, he’s handled left elbow irritation, Tommy John surgical procedure, a proper rib stress fracture, a damaged wrist and a stress response in his left shoulder.
What he’s completed: 7-time All-Star, 2018 World Collection champion with Purple Sox, 2,250 strikeouts
The place he could be with out accidents: 2-time AL Cy Younger Award winner, 9-time All-Star, 2,982 strikeouts
In 2014, Sale led the AL with a 173 ERA+ and completed third in Cy Younger Award voting regardless of solely making 26 begins. In a full season, he might have gained his first profession Cy Younger honor that 12 months. He missed about six weeks in ’18, however nonetheless completed fourth in AL Cy Younger Award voting with a 2.11 ERA and a 38.4% strikeout price. Had Sale been wholesome, he would’ve had a superb shot that 12 months, too. His common strikeout price was 33.2% in his injury-shortened seasons — if he had confronted 750 batters in these years, you could possibly add 732 Ok’s to his whole. That might put him inside 18 of three,000 for his profession.
What could also be forward: Thus far in 2024, Sale has been wholesome together with his new membership, the Braves, and he’s been pretty much as good as ever. He is bought an out of doors likelihood at reaching 3,000 strikeouts, and he would possibly even win that elusive Cy Younger Award if he continues pitching the way in which he has over his first eight begins this 12 months.
Byron Buxton, CF, Twins
Buxton actually confirmed us what he might do in 2021, when over his first 27 video games, he hit .369/.409/.767 with 10 homers and 5 steals. However then he bought harm. He returned and had a robust, although not almost as excellent, end to the season. Through the years, thumb, knee, hamstring, again, toe, wrist and shoulder issues, amongst others, have restricted him — he’s solely performed in additional than 100 video games in a season as soon as.
What he’s completed: 2017 Gold Glove Award winner, 2017 Platinum Glove Award winner, 2022 AL All-Star, 116 house runs, 87 steals
The place he could be with out accidents: 3-time All-Star, 4-time Gold Glove Award winner, 245 house runs, 168 steals
Buxton is a strolling 30-30 — or maybe even 40-40 — season year-in and year-out if he’s wholesome. With 550 at-bats and 150 video games a season, he’d be nearing the 250-homer/200-steal milestones in 2024. Given his elite protection in heart discipline, Buxton would most likely be racking up the Gold Glove Awards, as properly.
What could also be forward: Buxton is in his age-30 season, so if he can keep on the sector sufficient, there’s no purpose he can’t attain the aforementioned milestones and past.
Shane Bieber, RHP, Guardians
Shoulder and elbow accidents have restricted Bieber throughout his profession, the latest being a broken ulnar collateral ligament that necessitated Tommy John surgical procedure. The 2020 AL Cy Younger Award winner was off to an incredible begin this season, placing out 20 over his first two begins earlier than the damage.
What he’s completed: 2020 AL Cy Younger Award winner, 2-time All-Star, 2019 All-Star Sport MVP, ERA title, 2022 Gold Glove Award winner, 958 strikeouts
The place he could be in 2025 with out accidents: 2-time AL Cy Younger Award winner, 4-time All-Star, 2 ERA titles, 1,400 strikeouts
Since Bieber will not pitch once more this season, and assuming his strikeout price would have been again to 33%, which it was earlier than a two-year decline in velocity, we have projected the place he may need been going into 2025. There is not any purpose to suppose Bieber would not have competed for an additional Cy Younger Award this 12 months and he doubtless would have been an All-Star. Given his strikeout price through the seasons by which he missed time earlier than this 12 months, in addition to a 33% determine for ’24, he’d be round 1,400 strikeouts.
What could also be forward: Tommy John surgical procedure will price Bieber the remainder of this season, however he’s nonetheless solely 29, that means he’s bought loads left within the tank if all goes properly in his restoration. If his velocity stays what it was to start out this 12 months, his strikeout price might bounce again up. One other Cy Younger Award or two earlier than it is all stated and carried out? Between 2,000 and a couple of,500 profession strikeouts? Not a stretch to think about these occurring.