I’m, as soon as once more, asking so that you can take this column of predictions for the upcoming season within the spirit through which it’s supposed: Enjoyable.
These predictions are for enjoyable, not an illustration of my deep-seated loathing on your favourite crew, and never the product of a classy machine-learning algorithm to supply impeccable forecasts. I make all of it up, after which I discuss it. (I do, nonetheless, depend on FanGraphs’ projections as a place to begin for a number of issues right here, particularly some particular person gamers’ projections, and this piece can be far more durable with out them.)
I’ve finished this for a minimum of 14 years now, and the reactions are at all times the identical — individuals search for what I mentioned about their favourite groups after which yell at me about it. I make no claims of accuracy — I had each Texas and Arizona ending in fourth place and lacking the playoffs final yr. They did barely higher than that. Really, my 2023 predictions have been fairly horrible, even contemplating my caveats about them being only for enjoyable. I’m sorry I even checked out them.
Listed below are my projections for the 2024 season, together with playoff outcomes and post-season awards. Disagree all you want, so long as you take pleasure in.
American League East
The Orioles do appear primed for some regression to the imply after their stunning 101-win season final yr and the lack of starter Kyle Bradish for a minimum of the earliest a part of the season — though the newest information on him appears constructive — however they’re nonetheless fairly clearly the most effective crew within the division. Whereas I don’t have them profitable 100 video games, I feel they’re going to carry up fairly properly. The offense will nearly actually be higher, even with out Jackson Holliday or Heston Kjerstad on the Opening Day roster. The bullpen will probably be worse — even simply going from Félix Bautista to Craig Kimbrel is an enormous downgrade — and the rotation is robust however fragile, with out a lot within the system to fill in if Bradish or anybody else misses important time. I feel they rating 850+ runs and nonetheless take the division.
The Rays did lose three-fifths of their 2023 rotation to blown elbows after which traded away Tyler Glasnow, and that ought to make them worse … however how a lot worse? I may see Ryan Pepiot giving them 80 p.c of the manufacturing they obtained from Glasnow, and they need to get Shane Baz again sooner or later, plus they get a full season of Aaron Civale and most of 1 from Taj Bradley. I’m simply saying I’m not going to underestimate this crew, a minimum of not on the run-prevention aspect. Junior Caminero’s demotion wasn’t unreasonable given the remainder of the roster, however I’m guessing he nonetheless will get 300 at-bats someplace this yr.
The Blue Jays in all probability ought to have finished extra this winter, and so they nonetheless would profit considerably from making an enormous short-term provide to Jordan Montgomery, however nothing will assist them greater than Vlad Guerrero Jr. hitting like he did in his 2021 near-MVP season once more. They’ve holes — second base may make the Federal Contaminated Websites Stock checklist by year-end, their fifth starter has a profession 4.90 ERA in Triple A, and their bullpen is banged up already — and in a troublesome division they might simply find yourself sliding to fourth or fifth place with out some inside enhancements or some outdoors additions.
I’m betting the underneath on the Yankees. I see over/underneath traces at 90 or 91 wins, and with Gerrit Cole out a minimum of two months — perhaps the entire yr, let’s be trustworthy — and Aaron Choose already banged up, I don’t see how they get to 90 wins with out some critical luck on the well being aspect. Juan Soto helps a ton, clearly, and I anticipate some incremental progress from Anthony Volpe in yr two. They’re giving a number of at-bats to guys who’re fairly previous or get harm loads, and Marcus Stroman is the one starter prone to qualify for the ERA title. They’ve the potential to be an 88-win crew, if every little thing goes proper, however how typically does that occur?
The Crimson Sox have shored up the offense and actually shored up the protection, however they’re rolling out three-fifths of a rotation, with relievers-in-sheep’s-clothing Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock within the final two spots and no actual choices proper behind them. Ceddanne Rafaela goes to catch a number of balls in heart discipline, and placing him on the roster will get Masataka Yoshida off the sphere, in order that’s a simple improve. I appreciated the pickup of Vaughn Grissom to play second base. I don’t know why Bobby Dalbec, who has a 37 p.c strikeout fee in 951 profession major-league PA, is on this roster, however maybe he goes when Grissom’s off the IL. They might sneak into 85 wins based mostly on the run-scoring and the protection, however I can’t see this pitching workers holding opponents a lot underneath 780-800 runs and that received’t allow them to contend.
American League Central
The Twins profitable the AL Central could also be the most effective lock of all six divisions. They’re a genuinely good crew, and so they’re additionally the one crew that appears to be making an attempt to win the division presently. I’m hopeful that Byron Buxton returning to the sphere will go properly for participant and crew — he’s such an electrical defender that it feels unsuitable to have him DHing, regardless that that was clearly about defending his well being. They’ve finished properly with maximizing gamers with restricted ability units, like Matt Wallner (a platoon participant at greatest), and need to keep away from falling into the entice of letting these guys play greater than they need to. They’re additionally betting on Chris Paddack — whose solely full wholesome season as a starter got here in 2019 — and Louie Varland — who gave up 16 homers in 68 innings final yr — to be 40 p.c of their rotation, which appears optimistic.
The Guardians may have a brief rebuild if they’ll commerce Shane Bieber for some younger bats — ideally with energy, though you are taking what you may get. This season will in all probability see them breaking in a number of of their very own hitting prospects, notably Brayan Rocchio (on the Opening Day roster) and Kyle Manzardo (within the minors, however in all probability not for lengthy). The pitching workers ought to preserve them related and provides them an out of doors shot at rivalry, with the hole between them and the Twins on paper an excessive amount of for me to see them hanging with Minnesota all season.
The Tigers are positively the non-contender I’m almost definitely to observe this yr, with enjoyable and fascinating younger gamers on each side of the ball. Riley Greene was excellent final season when he was wholesome; he’ll do this for a full yr and make an All-Star crew. Spencer Torkelson might by no means be a star however he’s a minimum of a stable common. Parker Meadows can go get it in heart and has massively improved his swing to let a few of his energy present. Kerry Carpenter can hit, and that’s the sort of scouting and improvement success story that units good groups aside. Tarik Skubal was an ace for half a yr in 2023. Casey Mize is again, and there’s at all times hope that Matt Manning will string collectively 20 or so wholesome begins (he’ll start the season within the minors however ought to nonetheless contribute to the big-league crew this yr). I may see them cracking .500 underneath A.J. Hinch, though I’m extra assured they’ll get there in 2025.
The Royals did what extra non-contenders ought to do: They invested in short-term offers to make the major-league crew higher with out hurting their constructing course of in any respect. Kansas Metropolis spent a number of time and assets making an attempt to construct pitching from inside, nevertheless it hasn’t labored out, so that they went out this winter and signed Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha to fit in behind rising ace Cole Ragans. Bobby Witt Jr. is a dark-horse MVP candidate, and I anticipate extra manufacturing from each infield corners. They’re simply quick plenty of influence bats, each by way of OBP and energy, and so they don’t have the run-prevention to beat that.
The White Sox lastly determined to rebuild, and issues are going to worsen earlier than they get higher on the completely satisfactory stadium that Jerry Reinsdorf desires Illinois taxpayers to pay to interchange. They’d be higher off if they simply stored buying and selling the veterans — Luis Robert Jr. would return a king’s ransom, and Yoán Moncada and Eloy Jiménez ought to return, perhaps, a viscount’s ransom. In the end, it is a yr of giving gamers trials and seeing who’s a keeper. Nick Nastrini, Drew Thorpe, Jared Shuster, and Dominic Fletcher are all value evaluating, and Andrew Vaughn actually wants to start out producing if he’s going to be something however the subsequent Dominic Smith.
American League West
I do have the Astros profitable the division, however they appear weak for the primary time since 2016, the final full season after they didn’t take the AL West title. They’re nonetheless good, simply shakier than we’re used to seeing, with two of their 5 projected starters already on the IL, leaving them extra depending on Cristian Javier to have a bounceback yr or Hunter Brown to not be so terrible from the stretch. They’re additionally sticking with José Abreu at first even after he seemed feeble on the plate final yr, and their greatest transfer was signing Josh Hader to a five-year deal, regardless that the historical past of offers of that size for relievers is simply terrible. Giving Yainer Diaz the common catching job over the departed Martín Maldonado could also be the most effective transfer they made all winter.
Seattle didn’t go get an enormous bopper this winter, which was in all probability the most effective transfer they might have made, as a substitute patching across the edges with the additions of Jorge Polanco, Mitch Haniger, and Mitch Garver, all smaller upgrades and maybe one with some upside if Haniger performs even 100 video games. Julio Rodríguez is prone to be higher this yr, perhaps loads higher, and their rotation will in all probability be among the many high three within the American League. It’d be good if Gregory Santos pitches most of this yr, since they simply traded for him about 5 minutes earlier than the damage, and so they’re not getting sufficient offense out of the infield corners. They’re contenders for the wild card who may sneak into the division title with a little bit luck and a number of well being.
The Rangers received the World Collection. You possibly can cease studying now in case you’re amongst their followers. Actually, it’s OK. I don’t thoughts. Go outdoors. Get some solar earlier than it’s 110 levels. Inform your neighbors that your crew is the reigning champs. Now, for everybody else: This can be a championship lineup and a rotation that’s mid, at greatest. Max Scherzer’s harm and previous. Jacob deGrom is getting back from elbow surgical procedure. Nate Eovaldi threw 435 innings during the last three years; the final time he did that, he blew out and missed a season, and now he’s 34. Dane Dunning has lengthy had bother getting lefties out. Andrew Heaney has lengthy had bother conserving righties within the ballpark. I like the Michael Lorenzen signing — he completely ought to have gotten a number of years, however a troublesome end after his no-hitter plus a brutal marketplace for beginning pitchers left him on the market for the Rangers to signal to a one-year deal. Even with him on board on such a low-risk contract, I feel they’re going to permit much more runs than they did final yr, so even when they method 900 runs scored once more — and so they very properly would possibly — they’re in all probability not a 90-win crew.
The Angels … sigh. I hope they didn’t waste peak Mike Trout, however I feel they did. And now that Shohei Ohtani has left for bluer pastures, they’re one main Trout damage away from 95 losses. There are gamers to observe right here — Zach Neto quietly posted a 1.6 WAR season in about half of 2023, Nolan Schanuel is lower than a yr out of school and beginning on daily basis, Reid Detmers nonetheless hasn’t come near his potential — however the general scene is simply miserable.
The A’s are going to play in entrance of 20 followers this yr. Complete. They’re additionally simply not that good — it’s going to be exhausting to seek out an All-Star to characterize them in Arlington, Texas, in July. FanGraphs initiatives solely two A’s to achieve 2.0 WAR, and none to high 2.4. I’m at all times inquisitive about what they’ll do with reclamation initiatives, with J.J. Bleday or Miguel Andujar or Aledmys Díaz if both of the latter two get wholesome, or different efforts like shifting Mason Miller to the bullpen (the place he would possibly certainly grow to be their All-Star). They’re simply going to provide a number of enjoying time to guys who wouldn’t sniff the lineup with most different groups.
Nationwide League East
Am I the one one who appears to be like at Atlanta’s rotation with any concern about who’s behind the primary two? Spencer Strider is without doubt one of the greatest pitchers within the NL, and a wholesome Max Fried is, too, however after that, it’s 40-year-old Charlie Morton, Chris Sale, who hasn’t had a full and efficient season since 2018, and Reynaldo López, who final labored within the rotation in 2019 and has a profession 4.73 as a starter. The depth isn’t nice both, and their capability to swing enormous trades is diminished by years of creating enormous trades. In addition to, it’s not like Oakland has an ace to deal them. The offense might be among the many greatest within the NL once more; their weakest spot could be DH, and that’s not that onerous to repair in case your GM is a ninja. All that apart, in the event that they get to the playoffs unscathed, they’re as well-built to win in October as any crew in baseball.
The Phillies would have been at 90 wins besides that Bryce Harper’s again has flared up this week and now Taijuan Walker is on the shelf, testing their restricted beginning pitching depth already. I do consider Cristopher Sánchez goes to be an above-average starter this yr, which is a hell of a narrative for him and the Phillies’ participant improvement workers. I feel they’re going to mash, though one hopes that their NLCS exhibiting will a minimum of result in some changes to their approaches on the plate. You recognize different NL golf equipment have been taking notes.
The Mets seem like they’re going to attain loads of runs, however hand over loads extra, particularly if Kodai Senga’s shoulder damage prices him greater than a month. Tylor Megill led all of their different starters with 25 begins and 126 1/3 innings final yr, nevertheless it got here with a 4.70 ERA. All 5 of their projected starters are prone to break, or have already damaged, sooner or later, though the silver lining is that Christian Scott, Dominic Hamel and Mike Vasil ought to get photographs on the rotation. They need to get above-average manufacturing from 5 – 6 positions, though I want they’d left the DH spot open for Mark Vientos so each he and Brett Baty may get prolonged trials this yr earlier than the Mets are actually competing once more.
The Marlins made the playoffs final yr, however have been outscored on the season, and their rotation is already in shambles with three starters on the shelf. They might simply finish the yr with solely two league-average regulars in Luis Arraez and Jazz Chisholm, Jr. with Chisholm solely getting there due to his protection. It’s time for Chisholm to vary his plan on the plate, and likewise to work more durable to remain on the sphere. He’s a 2-WAR participant in a 7-WAR physique. Anyway, the Marlins must be sellers by June. A critical contender doesn’t begin Christian Bethancourt behind the plate.
The Nationals received’t be good, however they need to be fascinating. C.J. Abrams and Keibert Ruiz are stable gamers with upside remaining. Josiah Grey and Mackenzie Gore are stable starters with upside remaining, Grey if he cuts his walks and Gore if he reduces his reliance on his four-seamer. Dylan Crews will debut prior to later; James Wooden, Brady Home and Cade Cavalli will all be up this yr. This does look like make-or-break years for Victor Robles, a top-10 prospect who simply doesn’t make exhausting sufficient contact, Luis García, who was a top-150 prospect as a young person, and Nick Senzel. They received’t win 70 video games however there will probably be loads of causes to observe them.
Nationwide League Central
Both everyone seems to be sleeping on the Cubs, or I’m excessive. (On the Cubs, I imply.) This crew doesn’t have any apparent strengths, however I don’t assume it has any actual flaws, and within the NL Central that’s in all probability greater than sufficient to win the division. They’re additionally very well-positioned to swing an enormous commerce on the deadline, or sooner. I didn’t choose Miguel Amaya to interrupt out this yr as a result of I’m unsure he’ll get the enjoying time, however I purchase the bat and assume he’ll be higher than projections say. The Cubs might solely be below-average at third base, but when that’s so, one in all their high prospects, Matt Shaw, might be up by midyear. The rotation appears to be like robust even when Jameson Taillon misses time, with Javier Assad ok to make a number of different golf equipment’ beginning fives and a few depth behind him in swing sorts like Hayden Wesneski and Ben Brown. This division is received with 90 wins and so they have the most effective likelihood to get there.
The Brewers are down from final yr, however I wouldn’t rely them out, even after dropping their supervisor — Craig Counsell grew tremendously over the course of his time there to go from “properly, he’s not hurting the crew” to a extremely robust supervisor in-game and within the clubhouse — and their No. 1 starter. They’re nonetheless going to be among the many greatest defensive models within the NL, and so they’ve obtained some surpluses on the diamond, with Tyler Black missing a spot to play proper now, two actual shortstops in Willy Adames and Joey Ortiz, and one of many higher fourth outfielders in baseball in Joey Weimer. I’m having a really exhausting time seeing how they’ll piece collectively 162 begins from this roster, although, with just one man (Freddy Peralta) who threw 150 innings final yr — and he missed half of 2022.
The Cardinals received simply 71 video games final yr, so I’m calling for an enormous enchancment, though I’m positive that’s not sufficiently big for the crew or its followers. They seem like they’ll rating much more runs, a minimum of 50-75 greater than final yr, however this rotation is banking on 5 guys who’ll be age 33 or older, and I’d solely guess on Sonny Grey to put up an ERA beneath 4. I do assume they’ve obtained some younger hitters to observe for steps ahead — Jordan Walker made my breakouts column this yr, I’ve anticipated extra from Dylan Carlson since his sophomore yr (although now he’ll have to beat a shoulder damage), and Iván Herrera is an efficient sufficient hitter to separate time with Willson Contreras and let the veteran DH some days.
FanGraphs initiatives the Reds’ starters to have a 4.51 ERA, the worst within the division, and I don’t assume that’s a controversial projection — Nick Lodolo doesn’t get righties out and has been harm fairly typically within the final two-plus years, Graham Ashcraft doesn’t miss sufficient bats, and even Andrew Abbott, who has the most effective command and really feel on the workers, provides up too many homers. They want Hunter Greene to take an enormous step right here, whether or not through the brand new splitter or one thing else, as a result of MLB hitters have been fairly clear that they don’t seem to be impressed by 104 mph. The logjam created by signing Jeimer Candelario has eased briefly with Noelvi Marte’s suspension and Matt McLain’s damage, however by July they’re going to have six guys for 4 spots. Possibly Jonathan India will hit like he did as a rookie and create some commerce worth. Hold an eye fixed out for Rhett Lowder, their 2023 first-round choose who was completely electrical of their Breakout sport towards the Rangers.
The Pirates introduced that rookie Jared Jones made their rotation and final yr’s No. 1 choose, Paul Skenes, will begin Opening Evening for Triple-A Indianapolis, so their rotation might be fairly enjoyable in a month or so. They’ll have Oneil Cruz again, doing what he does greatest (being tall and crushing baseballs), though I stay a agency skeptic that he can keep at shortstop. Henry Davis returns to his pure place at catcher, and I received’t be shocked if that helps his bat. Jared Triolo received the second base job and may present plus protection and a few OBP, albeit with no energy. They’re not contenders and nonetheless want some actual thump within the lineup to even get near there, however that is probably the most intriguing Pirates’ roster in in all probability 5 years.
Nationwide League West
The Dodgers … I imply, they might (hypothetically, settle down) lose Shohei Ohtani for half the season to a suspension and nonetheless win this division. They’re the most effective crew in baseball, and so they have depth nearly in all places. I may choose aside the rotation, which is leaning on a number of guys who’ve obtained lengthy damage monitor data, however they do have some choices if, say, Tyler Glasnow misses a while, with Gavin Stone, Landon Knack and Kyle Harm throughout to select up some slack. If Stone’s points final yr have been actually nearly tipping pitches, he may contend for Rookie of the Yr. Anyway, the Dodgers aren’t fascinating to speak about as a result of they’re so good. Let’s transfer on.
The Diamondbacks’ postseason run final yr was not a mirage, however they return to actuality a bit in a division that’s a minimum of as aggressive because it was final yr, maybe extra so, and so they’re in all probability taking a look at some regression to the imply from a handful of key contributors. Shedding Eduardo Rodríguez for a while does harm, however they signed Jordan Montgomery to a comically team-friendly one-year deal (with a vesting choice, so what, that’s team-friendly, too) simply hours earlier than this put up went dwell, so now they’ve some actual beginning pitching depth and may use Ryne Nelson as a swing man whereas they proceed to attempt to develop him as a long-term starter. I’m wondering how lengthy they’ll persist with Geraldo Perdomo at shortstop if he’s nonetheless not producing with the stick and Jordan Lawlar goes bananas enjoying in 0.1G at Reno.
It seems like it is a essential yr for the Padres, as they couldn’t make the playoffs with their strongest roster of the A.J. Preller period final yr, then traded Juan Soto’s stroll yr for a five-player bundle that supplied them with further depth — a few of which they used to select up Dylan Stop, shoring up a rotation weakened by the losses of Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, and Michael Wacha. This was a 92-win crew by runs scored/allowed final yr, and whereas the web results of all the offseason strikes is unfavorable, I don’t assume it’s that unfavorable.
The Giants, however, had a fantastic offseason, and so they a minimum of made themselves contenders with these strikes. They’re in all probability a fantastic run-prevention crew that hopes to attain sufficient runs to get to the postseason. Signing Snell to a loopy team-friendly deal was a no brainer, and including Jung Hoo Lee to offer some wanted OBP was an excellent transfer, too. Take into account me un-sold on signing Jordan Hicks to be a starter, but when they simply stick him within the bullpen they’ll be higher off — and so will he. I don’t assume they’re going to be above-average offensively at too many positions, although, and will — ought to? — nonetheless look to improve at first base.
The Rockies are actually at the beginning of a constructing course of, though they’ve discovered some stable items and locked up Ezequiel Tovar as one of many gamers round whom to construct. For this yr, although, it could be ugly in Denver, with an excellent likelihood they don’t have a league-average (adjusted for ballpark) starter within the rotation and an offense that initiatives to be among the many worst in baseball (the worst, per FanGraphs’ projections). Their Double-A Hartford membership will be the most fascinating crew to observe within the system, together with the major-league one.
Playoff predictions
Wild Card Spherical
American League | Nationwide League |
---|---|
Twins over Blue Jays |
Cubs over Padres |
Mariners over Rays |
Phillies over Diamondbacks |
Division Collection Spherical
American League | Nationwide League |
---|---|
Orioles over Twins |
Atlanta over Cubs |
Mariners over Astros |
Dodgers over Phillies |
Championship Collection Spherical
American League | Nationwide League |
---|---|
Orioles over Mariners |
Atlanta over Dodgers |
World Collection
Winner | Loser |
---|---|
Atlanta |
Orioles |
Awards Predictions
American League MVP: Adley Rutschman, C, Baltimore Orioles
I feel he’s going to hit 30 homers if he performs 140-150 video games, and naturally he’ll do it with a excessive OBP and nice protection. You do this on a division winner and also you’re a fairly robust candidate for the MVP award. Different contenders embrace Julio Rodríguez, Bobby Witt Jr., Juan Soto; and the standard suspects like Aaron Choose, Mike Trout, and Corey Seager.
Nationwide League MVP: Austin Riley, 3B, Atlanta
Together with his reigning-MVP teammate already seeing a flareup in his knee this spring, I’m leaning in a unique route, and Riley — whose enormous changes to his method I detailed in a 2021 article — appears to be like primed for an enormous yr. As for non-Atlanta prospects, I’m at all times anticipating Fernando Tatis Jr., to show in an MVP-level season; the Dodgers have three candidates of their lineup; and I anticipate a significantly better yr from Trea Turner than he had in 2023.
American League Cy Younger: George Kirby, Seattle Mariners
Kirby had the bottom stroll fee amongst AL starters final yr, which is spectacular in and of itself, however extra so when you think about simply how good his stuff is. It’s really exhausting to consider he had a 3.35 ERA; together with his stuff and command, it must be half that. He’s obtained two teammates who’re candidates for this too in Luis Castillo and Logan Gilbert, whereas Kevin Gausman has been vying for this honor for a number of seasons now.
Nationwide League Cy Younger: Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies
I’m nearly anxious Wheeler has been too good for too a few years and that he can solely go down from right here, however he’s additionally the most effective pitcher in baseball proper now who hasn’t received the respect, and he’s simply obtained this unholy mixture of stuff, command, and competitiveness. I picked Aaron Nola final yr and he had one of many worst years of his profession, however hope springs everlasting and I feel he’ll bounce again. Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Zac Gallen, and Dylan Stop are all prospects. I don’t assume Blake Snell will repeat, although.
American League Rookie of the Yr: Wyatt Langford, Texas Rangers
I feel Langford would be the greatest rookie within the AL this yr, regardless that I feel the expectations for him have gotten uncontrolled. Don’t sleep on Colt Keith, or on the Orioles’ Colton Cowser (who made the Opening Day roster) or Jackson Holliday (who might be up earlier than Mom’s Day).
Nationwide League Rookie of the Yr: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers
Yamamoto and Jung Hoo Lee need to be heavy favorites given their ages and expertise ranges, placing them miles forward of the most effective prospects on this race — San Francisco’s Kyle Harrison and Milwaukee’s Jackson Chourio, specifically. Shota Imanaga of the Cubs may find yourself within the combine as properly, though I don’t assume he has the sort of upside Yamamoto does.
(High picture illustration (left) Austin Riley and (proper) Wyatt Langford: Brett Davis and Joe Camporeale / USA Right now)