The slower tempo of free-agency spending after the unhinged opening week permits groups to breathe, reassess and switch their main focus to the 2024 NFL Draft.
The month-long hole till commissioner Roger Goodell begins asserting alternatives on April 25 permits scorching hypothesis and overthinking to run wild. Separating reality from fiction isn’t simple, even for seasoned execs aware of rumor-mill insanity. 4 to 6 quarterbacks within the first-round dialogue will solely intensify “mendacity season.”
This mock draft contains direct perception from scouting and training sources or assessments blended into the evaluation. That isn’t to recommend consensus was obtained or that each opinion was taken on blind religion. Not less than the discussions helped make clear staff wants and conflicting participant evaluations, resulting in a dizzying array of faux however believable trades.
(Notice: An asterisk signifies a proposed commerce)
It positive appears like we are able to virtually take out the pen for this projection. Any angst about Williams declining the Bears’ heat embrace light on the NFL mix. Buying and selling away Justin Fields quickly adopted, and repeating final 12 months’s draft haul commerce feels additional away day by day. This tight blurb displays such pondering.
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The brand new regime, with basic supervisor Adam Peters and head coach Dan Quinn, has remained tight-lipped about its intentions. Is there a choice among the many remaining quarterbacks? Would they love a trade-down understanding the sheer quantity of wants for, as one lively assistant coach stated, the “hands-down worst roster within the league” earlier than Peters and Quinn arrived?
Buying and selling Sam Howell and never taking a quarterback prospect can be curious, even with Marcus Mariota round. If scouting sources point out a tier peer with Williams, it’s the reigning Heisman Trophy winner. Daniels’ pressure-to-sack ratio is jarring, as are the hits the slender quarterback absorbs when on the transfer. “Jayden in all probability made extra progress (12 months over 12 months) than any QB popping out within the final 5 – 6 years,” stated one high-ranking NFC scout. “He can anticipate, make all of the throws and is a superb athlete.”
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There’s no such factor as draft risers and fallers outdoors of a handful of damage, play-time or restricted publicity situations. That sensation is public evaluators and media members catching as much as the league’s scouting departments. This 12 months’s prime instance is McCarthy, who was deemed a mid-to-late first-round choice whereas main Michigan to a nationwide championship and a 27-1 file over the previous two seasons.
Whereas acknowledging the 21-year-old isn’t prepared for Week 1 motion, a number of league sources choose his intangibles over different quarterbacks on this class. Quickly we’ll see if the Patriots take the wanted passer or assist the general roster. “Everybody thinks New England will take a quarterback, however they’ve bought a foul roster,” one NFL scout stated. “They need to get higher expertise throughout the offense. I feel a staff trades into the highest 5. There appears to be much more urgency with these groups needing quarterbacks this 12 months.”
J.J. McCarthy’s spotlight throws. Appears affordable as such movie cutups go…pic.twitter.com/6xJ4Vo3sib
— Ben Standig (@BenStandig) March 24, 2024
Projected commerce: Vikings purchase Nos. 4, 138 and 162 from Cardinals for Nos. 11, 23, 108 and a 2025 first-rounder
The draft group and lots of within the league view Minnesota’s current acquisition of a second 2024 first-round decide as proof {that a} daring transfer into the highest 5 is coming. That’s a good presumption, however it additionally implies that the Vikings are good with whichever high quarterback prospect falls to 4. On this train, we’re saying the workers has a selected goal in thoughts and, extra importantly, feels snug he might be out there.
Quarterbacks coach Josh McCown was on Maye’s highschool workers, and the prospect with prototypical measurement and traits for the place looks like the higher match among the many doubtless candidates for coach Kevin O’Connell — which suggests they go the additional mile to get the passer they need. The variance amongst league sources on Maye following a uneven ultimate faculty season ranges from a longtime quarterbacks coach/offensive assistant saying, “I like Maye, however once I see the quantity of labor it’ll take to have him attain his potential, we’ll be fired first” to a scout’s reward, “he’ll be the very best of the group.”
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The trade-down potential appears real, particularly since including picks by no means goes out of fashion, and snagging an offensive deal with (within the 9 to 13 vary) is the pure tone-setter for coach Jim Harbaugh. Nevertheless, the staff that traded Keenan Allen and launched Mike Williams isn’t passing on one of many high receiver candidates in years.
Just a few clips of Marvin Harrison Jr. working from the slot (or what finally ends up being the slot) pic.twitter.com/EbQfhoBk3t
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) March 20, 2024
Drafting Daniel Jones’ alternative can be tempting, if doable. Choosing a game-breaking receiver, the sort hardly ever seen in East Rutherford, isn’t solely doable however vital irrespective of who performs quarterback. Nabers averaged 17.6 yards on 89 receptions in his ultimate season with the Tigers.
This player-team combo is the definition of a plan coming collectively. Tennessee opened the pockets (possibly a bit an excessive amount of?) in free company for extensive receiver Calvin Ridley. The transfer permits basic supervisor Ran Carthon to proceed upgrading the offensive line with the top-rated deal with prospect, and the second O-lineman (Peter Skoronski) grabbed within the first spherical in as a few years. Add within the signing of free-agent heart Lloyd Cushenberry, and the Titans are doing what they will to help the event of quarterback Will Levis.
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Signing quarterback Kirk Cousins definitely wasn’t low cost, however the transfer places the Falcons within the NFC contender class with out costing draft picks. That permits basic supervisor Terry Fontenot to seize Turner, who was tied atop the SEC with 10 sacks in 2023.
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Projected commerce: Cardinals purchase No. 9 from Bears for Nos. 11 and 71
Common supervisor Monti Ossenfort stated he was “open” for enterprise at No. 4. We’ll assume the need to deal extends anyplace on Day 1. With 11 picks coming into the draft, tied for probably the most within the league, plus extra from the commerce with Minnesota, the Cardinals have the belongings to maneuver across the board as wanted. Arizona jumps up for the 6-foot-3 Odunze, who The Athletic’s Dane Brugler believes “has the pass-catching instincts and aggressive focus to be a high-end NFL starter.”
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Purchase
Buying Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses locked within the beginning tackles. They arrive with age danger (each 33 years previous), damage considerations (Smith has missed 37 video games over the past 4 seasons) and expiring contracts. The workers has helped the current sufficient to seize a run-blocking mauler at offensive deal with who might play guard within the quick time period.
11. Chicago Bears (from MIN, by way of ARI*): Jared Verse, DE, Florida State
All the nice vibes surrounding the Bears — outdoors of offended Fields backers — overshadows their minuscule variety of picks (league-low 4). Having Allen and DJ Moore on the roster permits basic supervisor Ryan Poles to let Odunze move to accumulate a excessive third-rounder and a wanted move rusher reverse Montez Sweat.
Projected commerce: Packers purchase No. 12 from Broncos for Nos. 25, 58, 91 and 245)
One other staff with 11 draft alternatives, the Packers transfer up 13 spots for arguably the very best defender within the class. Mitchell dominated the pre-draft cycle after blasting off final season with the Rockets. This addition and free-agent security Xavier McKinney bolsters a secondary that can face Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Allen and Moore twice a season.
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The 6-foot-6, 335-pound Latham is an athletic drive in move safety who jumps straight into the beginning lineup. There’s at all times the scent of desperation amongst groups coveting a quarterback repair. Signing Gardner Minshew provides the Raiders a viable starter, however in search of extra assist isn’t out of the query.
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Offensive deal with is the (large) simple resolution, contemplating Trevor Penning’s struggles. Having Bowers, Brugler’s fifth-ranked prospect, on the board modifications the equation for an offense that lacks difference-making move catchers past Chris Olave.
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The FBS chief with 17 landing receptions final season provides measurement and velocity to assist second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson. Going cornerback is the alternate path, particularly with Alabama’s Terrion Arnold out there, however strong Day 2 choices exist.
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One of many “winners” of the pre-draft cycle, Fautanu reunites with former College of Washington offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, who now holds the identical title with the Seahawks. Although set at deal with, Seattle’s inside line is insufficient, and Fautanu suits at guard. Wrote Bugler: “He flashes violence together with his palms and makes defenders really feel it when he connects.”
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One other sturdy player-to-team match. Arnold can deal with work on the slot or the boundary and do both with pure cowl abilities. Signing free agent Ronald Darby is a top quality one-year transfer, however Arnold is the long-term play. Jacksonville tackled offensive line holes in free company, changed Ridley with Gabe Davis and saved move rusher Josh Allen on the franchise tag.
The temptation for an offensive deal with is robust regardless of signing free agent Trent Brown to a one-year contract. Shield Joe Burrow in any respect prices. The Bengals even have some urgency on the line of defense with D.J. Reader signing with the Detroit Lions. Enter Murphy, who may be a draft-day steal if out there at No. 18, contemplating his intense pocket-collapsing sport proven at Texas (45 quarterback pressures).
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Taking an inside presence may need been too on the nostril for the staff that misplaced retiring all-world defensive deal with Aaron Donald. That doesn’t imply skipping the D-line altogether. Some scouts have Latu’s pass-rushing chops on the high of this class. So long as the medical workers is nice with assessing the 6-foot-4, 261-pound edge rusher who retired in 2021 with a neck damage earlier than returning, the Rams add a weapon for his or her post-Donald world.
Primarily based on potential, Fashanu is worthy of being the second deal with chosen. “(Fashanu) is a real left deal with,” stated one scout. “The remaining (aside from Joe Alt) are top-tier proper tackles or advantageous at left deal with, however not elite.” Caleb Williams’ highschool teammate may also want probably the most developmental time among the many projected first-rounders. Solely as a result of the draft is loaded at deal with does Fashanu stay on the board right here, and the Steelers pounce to accumulate a bookend deal with with 2023 first-round decide Broderick Jones.
The Dolphins suffered important losses on each strains in free company. Barton’s aptitude in any respect 5 spots provides the teaching workers flexibility, notably with the inside line positions. Illinois defensive deal with Jer’Zhan Newton can’t be dominated out now that Christian Wilkins signed with the Raiders.
Common supervisor Howie Roseman is non secular about drafting premium positions, and the Eagles’ move protection was messier final season than the Johnny Depp-Amber Heard trial. Brugler wrote on Wiggins: “Together with his athletic profile, Wiggins strikes with quiet, managed ft/hips to seamlessly transition out of breaks and speed up to high gear (allowed just one catch of 20-plus yards final season, on 41 targets). His skinny body is a priority, and he wants to enhance his consistency as a run defender, however he exhibits large effort in pursuit.”
Is Nate Wiggins the very best defensive again on this 12 months’s #NFLDraft? 🤔@WigginNathaniel | @ClemsonFB pic.twitter.com/C9IA2A7knv
— NFL (@NFL) March 22, 2024
23. Arizona Cardinals (from MIN*): Jackson Powers-Johnson, OL, Oregon
The Cardinals’ second of three first-round alternatives is Powers-Johnson, who was honored with the Rimington Award because the nation’s greatest heart. Whether or not he performs heart or guard in 12 months 1, the offensive lineman must be a longtime fixture for Arizona.
Shedding Smith and heart Tyler Biadasz in free company created important holes alongside the offensive line. Enter Mims, a large 6-foot-8, 320-pound hulking lineman who brings fascinating athletic traits however is inexperienced (solely eight begins at Georgia).
“He’s extra proficient than a number of the tackles who might be picked forward of him,” stated one scout, “however Mims is the one I’d guess falls.”
Drafting a first-round quarterback isn’t Sean Payton’s factor. Getting into camp with solely Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci in all probability isn’t both. Taking Nix gives youthful hope even when the Oregon standout is a bit older (24) than the everyday rookie. There’s nothing regular with breaking the FBS file with a 77.4 completion share. The dropdown upped Denver’s decide whole to 11, so shifting round for a wideout or defensive again stays believable.
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The reigning three-time NFC South champs had been artistic in retaining their items collectively this offseason however did launch veteran edge rusher Shaquil Barrett. Robinson’s faculty stats had been underwhelming (11 1/2 sacks in 30 video games), however his athletic testing on the mix punctuated his standing atop Bruce Feldman’s “Freaks” checklist.
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27. Arizona Cardinals (from HOU): Darius Robinson, DE, Missouri
A lift for the protection after back-to-back alternatives for the offense. This work-in-progress has scary athletic traits coming off the sting with sufficient measurement to play on the within at occasions.
Shedding important expertise this offseason means a number of positions might be focused right here, together with extensive receiver, heart and inside line of defense. Signing free agent Curtis Samuel helps the observe staff side of the passing assault. Choosing Adonai Mitchell, a 6-foot-2 receiver with 4.34 velocity and a 39 1/2-inch vertical provides Josh Allen with a possible WR1 for years to come back.
29. Las Vegas Raiders (from DET*): Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
Projected commerce: Raiders purchase No. 29 from Lions for Nos. 44, 112 and a 2025 third-rounder with second-round potential
From the polish within the pocket, placing on deep throws and deftly evading sacks, two league sources rank the southpaw among the many high three quarterback prospects. One other scout slotted the Heisman runner-up sixth because of mobility considerations, inconsistency with throws and his damage historical past.
For the Raiders, ready one other 12 months means the brand new mind belief might not know if they’ve a long-term reply till 2026. Penix, 24 in Might, is skilled sufficient to present him a shot to begin rapidly.
Michael Penix Jr. is rising up #NFLDraft boards. The place will he be taken? 👀📈
(by way of @UW_Football) pic.twitter.com/agx80QOjfW
— NFL (@NFL) March 23, 2024
30. Washington Commanders (from BAL*): Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
Projected commerce: Commanders purchase No. 30 from Ravens for Nos. 40 and 78
The Commanders had been probably the most lively staff in free company, however they didn’t considerably fill their left deal with emptiness. Given how rapidly groups snatch tackles, ready to pounce within the early second spherical may be dangerous. One other hazard can be not stabilizing the blindside spot with a rookie quarterback. Baltimore might use extra picks after seeing quite a few free brokers go away, although standing pat and taking the 6-foot-8, 322-pound Guyton additionally works.
This selection leans into the very best participant out there territory, although cornerback was the defensive weak hyperlink final season for San Francisco. The aggressive DeJean has cornerback and security expertise and returned 21 punts final season for Iowa. The gang-pleaser goes O-line since, past Trent Williams, the unit wasn’t as much as the extent of the general roster.
Buying and selling L’Jarius Sneed pushes cornerback up the Chiefs’ wants checklist. Alabama cornerback Kool-Help McKinstry is sitting proper there. So are extensive receivers Ladd McConkey and Xavier Worthy, although signing Marquise Brown curtailed angst. Issues at left deal with stay. Morgan, a three-year starter on the place, earned All-Pac-12 honors in 2023 after an ACL tear minimize his earlier season quick.
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Groups with no first-round decide
The Panthers gave quarterback Bryce Younger a much-needed receiver enhance by buying and selling for Diontae Johnson. Extra is required. Now comes a elegant route runner in McConkey.
There are sufficient offensive line choices for the Ravens so as to add high quality assist and extra picks. One other member of Feldman’s “Freaks” checklist, Suamataia has expertise at each deal with spots plus intriguing measurables on the place.
The Texans took benefit of C.J. Stroud’s rookie contract by spending on move rusher Danielle Hunter, together with the tight finish and linebacker spots, however work on the offensive line isn’t full.
Buying and selling for Carlton Davis aided the cornerback room. Now comes a tag-team associate for Aidan Hutchinson.
Denzel Ward missed 4 video games final season and has by no means performed greater than 15 in any marketing campaign. One league supply evaluates Tampa within the 25 to 40 vary, although most public evaluations haven’t mirrored such heights.
(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; pictures of Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and Rome Odunze: G Fiume, Julio Aguilar, Steph Chambers / Getty Photos)