Completely happy Friday, Illinois Land!
Completely happy Friday this week follows Actually Completely happy Thursday.
Your Combating Illini disposed of a proficient and well-coached Morehead State staff that performed nicely, and began quick. The Morehead State Eagles weren’t a ceremonial first pitch, fed to wolves for slaughter.
Till they had been.
Regardless of MSU and coach Preston Spradlin popping out of the gates on fireplace and taking pictures nicely all through many of the first half-hour of the sport, the sport was not likely in any critical jeopardy.
That’s a bizarre sentence to sort following a staff that hasn’t gained a number of video games in and NCAA Match in almost twenty years. By now, it looks like everybody in America is aware of Illinois hasn’t made a Candy 16 since 2005.
A few of this factual dispensation is by design, as speaking heads help non-talking heads on filling out their brackets the week of the match. Hypothesis on “Closing 4 groups” begins earlier than the season begins.
It’s an train of fake intellectualism and sizzling take, status-carrying advantage signaling. The overwhelming majority of so-called consultants can’t predict these outcomes any higher than any of us.
Previous efficiency is just not an correct indicator of future outcomes.
That is very true when contemplating the identical gamers aren’t enjoying within the video games and the identical opponents aren’t on the other bench. Jordan is just not making an attempt to take down the Dangerous Boy Pistons, right here.
The explanation for the unpredictability is straightforward. It’s not solely the character of the video games themselves, however that the committee hides behind bracketing rules to create stylistic and entertaining matchups.
This committee tried to do that with Illinois and Morehead State. Morehead State’s principal kryptonite on offense is that they flip the ball over at alarmingly excessive charges. In line with KenPom, the Morehead turnover charge is eighteen.2%, dangerous for 263rd within the nation.
Illinois doesn’t flip over different groups defensively, fairly actually by design. Head coach Brad Underwood has stated he doesn’t care about forcing turnovers.
Morehead State tried to “out Illinois Illinois,” and it went the identical approach it’s gone for the previous month for Illini opponents. The committee tried to get an intriguing matchup in spherical one, however failed.
Illinois had a 24-point lead earlier than it eliminated the starters from the competitors. The ultimate rating was not indicative of the true nature of this contest. Consolation in a win for Illinois within the NCAA Match.
Listed here are 5 narratives about Illinois basketball that have to go away. Their reality has disappeared sooner than an opponents’ double-digit lead within the 2024 postseason.
I’d wager that you just’ve heard not less than one, if not all, of those false narratives about Illinois basketball because the brackets had been introduced on Choice Sunday. Theories are in daring, and my retort instantly follows.
- Illinois doesn’t play any protection: You may wish to inform that that to Morehead State, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Ohio State, Iowa or anybody that has performed the Illini the previous six weeks. Purdue scored 77 at Illinois earlier this month, and wanted to go 8-of-10 from three within the second half to get there. Purdue averages 83.4 factors.
- Illinois basketball is a one-man present: Marcus Domask had a triple-double, and shot extraordinarily poorly from the sphere. Coleman Hawkins had 10 factors, 5 assists and 4 rebounds to go together with two blocks towards Morehead. Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn performed 10 minutes and went 2-of-2 (100%) from behind the arc.
- They will solely play a method: Dain Dainja had 21 and eight on 9-of-9 (100%) taking pictures. The Illini performed three particular methods within the opener towards Morehead. Terrence Shannon, Jr. went bonkers the primary quarter-hour. Then, “The Dainja Zone” was in play, and Underwood simply fed the beast. As soon as that stopped, Domask completed off his triple double with a right-wing three. Oh, by the way in which: Illinois made 12 threes.
- Underwood can’t coach: Please see the above three bullet factors.
- There is no such thing as a level guard: Domask and Hawkins mixed for 15 assists. Shannon additionally had 4 dimes of his personal. That’s a drained little bit of “evaluation.”
I’m certain you’ve heard not less than certainly one of these 5 speaking factors scattered round both a four-letter community, a sports activities podcast or YouTube. They’re lazy, ineffective means to explain Illinois basketball in 2023-24.
This interprets on to the Illini’s subsequent sport, towards No. 11 Duquesne Dukes on Saturday. It’s time to exorcise the demons.
Keep in mind when a majority of parents had been up in arms over BYU getting a No. 6 seed, regardless of being No. 17 on the grasp seed listing. To borrow a phrase from the best talker in skilled wrestling historical past:
“It doesn’t matter what your seed is!”
BYU loses to Duquesne and the Dukes are all that stand in the way in which of the Illini going to the Candy 16.
From a statistical profile standpoint, Duquesne performs significantly better protection than Morehead State, however little or no offense. The Dukes below Keith Dambrot additionally play methodically sluggish and attempt to shorten the sport.
Right here is the profile for Duquesne.
- 157th in OER
- twenty ninth in DER
- 251st in adjusted tempo
- KenPom Rank: 80 (up 4 spots after their BYU victory)
- Common heights is about 6-foot-3 (284th)
- Opponents shoot 37.5% from behind the arc. Bookmark this one.
The Dukes have scored within the 80s one time throughout their nine-game win streak, a victory towards St. Louis College within the first spherical of the Atlantic 10 match.
KenPom favors Illinois by 10, by a rating of 80-70. I feel it’s nearer to 85-65, primarily based on what I’ve seen on video and metric evaluation.
To reiterate some extent from my final column, if Illinois doesn’t make the Candy 16, it will probably solely blame themselves. Illinois should maintain enterprise.
Gradual begins haven’t damage this staff thus far within the postseason. It’s some extent of concern, and will proceed to be some extent of emphasis. Ought to the Illini get off to a quick begin on Saturday towards Duquense, the sport could possibly be out of jeopardy earlier than halftime.
Quincy Guerrier and Ty Rodgers mixed for zero factors within the opening spherical, and the Illini knocked on the door of 90 as soon as once more.
This pair should give Illinois higher performances in spherical two.
Duquesne can’t cease TSJ. Duquesne can’t cease Dain Dainja. Duquesne has no reply for Marcus Domask. Duquesne can’t matchup with Coleman Hawkins.
Official prediction: Illinois wins, 84-68.
Right here was SDH in spherical one: 48 factors, 19 assists, 17 rebounds, 4 steals and three blocks. Not too shabby, I’d say. Not too shabby.
Please take The Scientific Ballot.
Ballot
What’s the greatest issue within the Spherical 2 matchup with Duquesne for Illinois?
-
3%
Underwood teaching
(8 votes)
-
6%
The Dainja Zone
(15 votes)
-
25%
TSJ/Domask/Hawkins (SDH)
(55 votes)
-
8%
Guerrier and Rodgers bouncing again
(18 votes)
-
55%
Effort, all the way in which round
(120 votes)
216 votes complete
Vote Now
That is the NCAA Match. It is a probability at historical past. That is Illinois basketball advancing to the Candy 16.
Benefit from the sport on Saturday. Get some chilly drinks of your selection and take it in and actually get pleasure from it. Followers hardly ever “earn” something from being a fan.
Everybody thinks we’ve earned this one probability to have fun as Illinois followers.
That is Illinois basketball.