• Broad receiver is the correct first-round decide outdoors of 1.01: Christian McCaffrey is the correct decide at 1.01, however at another decide within the first spherical, a large receiver is the correct option to go.
• Discover a top-six quarterback and tight finish: Choosing one of many elite quarterbacks and tight ends was a profitable technique final season and ought to be once more this 12 months.
• Get a head begin on fantasy soccer: Use PFF’s fantasy soccer mock draft simulator to search out the correct draft technique to your particular decide quantity and league settings.
Estimated studying time: 14 minutes
The right draft sequence combines present ADPs from skilled and informal drafts to see who ought to be out there at every decide and make the very best picks provided that data. This draft is designed for 12-team PPR leagues.
Final up to date: 7:15 a.m. Monday, July 8
Spherical 1, Picks 1-12: Draft a large receiver
Anybody with the highest general decide ought to take McCaffrey with little hesitation. He scored over 100 extra PPR factors than another operating again final season and has the proper mixture of expertise, alternative and state of affairs. Anybody lacking out must pivot to a large receiver. No quarterback or tight finish is value a first-round decide this 12 months. Bijan Robinson and Breece Corridor are each worthy of being chosen within the first spherical, however each even have barely greater ADPs than they need to given the expertise at broad receiver. Meaning in case you decide anyplace from second to twelfth, broad receiver is the most suitable choice.
High Goal: CeeDee Lamb
Lamb noticeably improved every season and now, he’s on the high of the place. He completed final season as the highest broad receiver and has much less competitors for targets this season after Tony Pollard and Michael Gallup‘s departure. The one notable addition is sixth-round receiver Ryan Flournoy, which could have no influence on Lamb’s goal share.
In distinction, Justin Jefferson has a brand new quarterback, Ja’Marr Chase’s quarterback is getting back from harm, and Tyreek Hill is 30 years previous, including a bit of threat to every of the opposite high broad receiver choices.
Attainable Targets: Tyreek Hill, Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, A.J. Brown
Spherical 2, Picks 13-24: Draft a quarterback, operating again or Drake London
Final season, the proper decide within the second spherical was typically 1 / 4. Patrick Mahomes ADP was a bit excessive, however both Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen was sometimes the very best decide. These two quarterbacks additionally occurred to be the quarterbacks most steadily on ESPN championship sport groups final season. Whereas Hurts misplaced Jason Kelce and Allen misplaced Stefon Diggs, they’re each nonetheless worthy of second-round picks.
Hurts’ ADP varies considerably from one website to a different, as he typically falls to the mid-to-late third spherical on some websites. Relying on the positioning, you can gamble and wait till the second spherical and hope Hurts falls. In that case, the most suitable choice is usually a operating again.
High Goal: Saquon Barkley
Barkley completed final 12 months at RB9 due to his quantity. He completed fourth in touches per sport however completed beneath 4.0 yards per carry. He obtained little assist from the New York Giants offensive line, which ranked third-worst in workforce run-blocking grade final season at 41.1. 9 offensive linemen performed at the least 250 snaps, and none had a run-blocking grade above 70.0. Now Barkley is with the Eagles, who’ve the second-best offensive line regardless of dropping Jason Kelce.
Attainable Targets: Kyren Williams, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Drake London, Derrick Henry
Spherical 3, Picks 25-36: Draft a large receiver or Jalen Hurts
As talked about in Spherical 2, the hope is for Hurts to fall to this decide to get a top-two fantasy quarterback at a worth. If a quarterback was chosen in Spherical 2, or if each Allen and Hurts are off the board, then broad receiver is the clear selection in Spherical 3. There are a number of gamers who’re the clear high broad receiver on their workforce with an extended historical past of fantasy manufacturing to select from.
High Goal: Jalen Hurts
Hurts has averaged at the least 21.0 fantasy factors per begin in each season of his profession. Whereas his tush push touchdowns have definitely helped his fantasy worth, he’s one in all simply 4 quarterbacks with at the least 2,200 speeding yards over the past three seasons whereas nobody else is above 1,300. Contemplating a type of 4 is a backup and the opposite two are at an age the place we cease seeing as a lot speeding manufacturing from quarterbacks, Hurts might be the very best speeding quarterback this season. He’s additionally surrounded by a top-three receiving corp and offensive line so even when his speeding landing whole recedes, his fantasy manufacturing ought to stay excessive.
Attainable Targets: Brandon Aiyuk, Mike Evans, D.Ok. Metcalf, Michael Pittman Jr., Deebo Samuel Sr.
Spherical 4, Picks 37-48: Draft a operating again or broad receiver
The selection on this spherical largely relies on how the primary three rounds went. There normally isn’t a quarterback of worth on this spherical, and whereas just a few tight ends might be thought of, there are even higher values at tight finish in Spherical 5. This leaves broad receiver and operating again because the values right here. Should you missed out on Christian McCaffrey in Spherical 1 and operating again in Spherical 2, then it may be time to select a operating again for the primary time. If not, then it’s time for one more broad receiver.
High Goal: D.Ok. Metcalf
Metcalf has been a top-16 fantasy broad receiver in three of the final 4 seasons. The one exception was final season the place he had a gradual begin however was a top-10 fantasy broad receiver from Week 8 till the tip of the season. There may be motive for optimism this season with Ryan Grubb as offensive coordinator. The Seahawks ought to be passing the ball lots given Grubb’s historical past at Washington, and most significantly, they need to run extra performs. The Seattle Seahawks have run the fewest offensive performs in two of the final three seasons and have persistently been beneath common. A sooner tempo ought to assist the fantasy manufacturing of everybody within the offense.
Attainable Targets: Rachaad White, Alvin Kamara, Stefon Diggs, James Prepare dinner, DeVonta Smith
Spherical 5, Picks 49-60: Draft a good finish
Spherical 5’s begin is a candy spot for including a star tight finish, which is why that place was ignored on the finish of Spherical 2. The highest tight ends out there at this spot have both completed as top-six fantasy tight ends every of the final two seasons with the identical quarterback and offensive play-caller or are a younger tight finish with an awesome alternative to have a profession 12 months.
High Goal: Dalton Kincaid
Kincaid posted probably the greatest rookie seasons by a good finish of all time, together with the fourth-most receptions, however Sam LaPorta’s success overshadowed it. Sometimes, tight ends enhance of their second season, and there are lots of vacated targets in Buffalo after Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis‘ departure. Given Kincaid’s quarterback and state of affairs with the Buffalo Payments, Kincaid ought to be a top-three fantasy tight finish this season. The one factor holding him again is his unproven expertise in comparison with different tight ends who’re extra confirmed.
Attainable Targets: George Kittle, Kyle Pitts, Evan Engram, David Njoku, Jake Ferguson
Spherical 6, Picks 61-72: Draft a operating again
The operating backs, at this level of the draft, are favorites to begin when wholesome however are dealing with important competitors. Whereas these operating backs aren’t essentially probably the most thrilling names, solely so many are anticipated to be clear starters on their workforce even when they’re on the older aspect. It’s good to have somebody you’ll be able to put in your beginning lineup on a weekly foundation so long as they aren’t injured.
High Goal: Aaron Jones
Jones is tied for fifth in PFF offensive grade over the past three seasons at 90.7, however he’s been held again by the Inexperienced Bay Packers operating again committee. Jones solely has eight speeding touchdowns over the past three years in comparison with the larger A.J. Dillon‘s 14. He performed over 60% of Inexperienced Bay’s offensive snaps in half of video games in 2021 and 2022, however that fell to simply the ultimate sport of 2023 due to an injury-filled season.
In Minnesota, he could have minimal competitors for snaps and touches in comparison with different operating backs. Given how profitable he’s been whatever the state of affairs, he’s well worth the threat at this level of the draft given he shall be 30 by the tip of the season and his latest harm historical past.
Attainable Targets: Rhamondre Stevenson, James Conner, Zamir White, Jonathon Brooks, D’Andre Swift
Spherical 7, Picks 73-84: Draft a large receiver or James Conner
With a top-six quarterback and tight finish secured, the subsequent a number of picks shall be some mixture of operating again and broad receiver. When you’ve got a top-six quarterback or tight finish, you’re not benching them as a result of a backup has a greater matchup. Meaning a backup is simply obligatory in case of accidents, so you’ll be able to draft extra operating backs and broad receivers earlier than making lineup selections based mostly on matchups and who breaks out.
On this case, a large receiver is greatest to select as a result of a number of confirmed gamers are in new conditions this 12 months. Ideally, the brand new state of affairs permits them to outperform their ADP. If it doesn’t, then hopefully one of many a number of sleeper broad receivers picked later finally ends up breaking out.
High Goal: Hollywood Brown
Brown was a top-21 fantasy broad receiver in PPR factors per sport in 2021 and 2022, however his 2023 position modified after the Arizona Cardinals moved on from DeAndre Hopkins. That and the quarterback state of affairs resulted in an absence of manufacturing in 2023, however he has a possibility for an enormous season with the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs. Brown is persistently close to the highest of our separation metrics, which might make him an ideal pairing for Patrick Mahomes. Contemplating how slowly the Chiefs have introduced on rookie broad receivers up to now in addition to Rashee Rice’s authorized state of affairs, Brown might be Mahomes’ high broad receiver this season.
Attainable Targets: James Conner, Diontae Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, Rashee Rice, Ladd McConkey
Spherical 8, Picks 85-96: Draft a operating again or Ladd McConkey
At this level, this workforce ought to have already got two operating backs, nevertheless it’s time to select up a 3rd. There are just a few operating backs in two-player committees the place both one has an opportunity to have a breakout season given their and their workforce’s expertise. The eighth spherical is the proper time to select up one in all these operating backs as a result of as soon as they’re gone, another operating again is far more of a bet.
High Goal: Tony Pollard
Pollard has the fourth-highest offensive grade for a operating again over the past 4 seasons at 91.3, behind solely Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb. Expectations had been excessive final season after the Dallas Cowboys let go of Ezekiel Elliott. Sadly, it took time for him to recuperate from his leg accidents from the 2022 divisional playoff spherical. By Week 11, he was again to his former self. He was the highest-graded rusher from that time on, ending as RB13. He was lastly receiving the enjoying time he deserved however wasn’t getting the ball sufficient when he was on the sector.
Now, he’s with the Tennessee Titans and competing for enjoying time with Tyjae Spears. The sophomore operating again can be very gifted, however given Pollard’s previous manufacturing, he has an opportunity to be the lead again within the Joe Mixon position in Brian Callahan’s offense.
Attainable Targets: Jaylen Warren, Ladd McConkey, Zack Moss, Javonte Williams, Devin Singletary
Spherical 9, Picks 97-108: Draft a large receiver or Javonte Williams
Broad receiver is the most suitable choice right here, however there’s nonetheless an necessary determination to make. You may draft a confirmed veteran or one of many youthful broad receivers within the league. Somebody like Tyler Lockett or Courtland Sutton could be very more likely to beat their ADPs in the event that they keep wholesome, however they’re unlikely to complete among the many high 24 with out some landing luck. The youthful broad receivers are much less more likely to beat their ADP, however they’ve the next likelihood of being an elite broad receiver this season. The proper determination doubtless relies on how dangerous the earlier broad receivers picked have been.
High Goal: Courtland Sutton
Sutton has completed over 60% of his video games as a top-36 fantasy broad receiver every of the final two seasons however has not often completed among the many high 12. Sutton is the clear high broad receiver on the Denver Broncos depth chart after buying and selling away his fundamental competitors Jerry Jeudy. If Sutton experiences to coaching camp regardless of his contract state of affairs or if he receives a brand new contract, he’s an ideal complementary piece to a workforce drafting many broad receivers.
Attainable Targets: Tyler Lockett, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Javonte Williams, Brian Thomas Jr., Keon Coleman
Spherical 10, Picks 109-120: Draft a large receiver
The following 4 rounds are largely about choosing your guys. In case your favourite sleeper quarterback or tight finish is accessible, it’s OK to select them, however I’d advise stocking up on much more operating backs and broad receivers. A operating again or broad receiver who considerably exceeds expectations right here can be in your beginning lineup in an excellent matchup however even a quarterback or tight finish who’s picked right here and has an excellent season received’t begin over the star quarterback and tight finish chosen, whatever the matchup.
High Goal: Tyler Lockett
Lockett had been a constant fantasy asset with 4 straight 1,000-yard and eight-plus landing seasons, however he gained fewer yards and caught fewer touchdowns final season at 31 years previous. His decline was solely in his statistics, as his PFF receiving grade was very constant. He’s completed between 77-83 in every of the final six seasons. The Seahawks have a brand new offensive coordinator in Ryan Grubb. Whereas everybody is happy for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, ideally, Grubb will have the ability to benefit from Lockett’s expertise to maintain him fantasy-relevant.
Attainable Targets: Keon Coleman, Mike Williams, Jameson Williams, Jakobi Meyers, Curtis Samuel
Spherical 11, Picks 121-132: Draft a operating again or broad receiver
High Goal: Mike Williams
Williams completed final season with the Tenth-most fantasy factors per sport at broad receiver, albeit on three video games performed. He caught 15 passes for 204 yards and a landing in his final two video games however then tore his ACL. His harm historical past is intensive, and he won’t be prepared to begin the season. Williams signed with the New York Jets in free company, and his new head coach Robert Saleh in contrast his timeline to Breece Corridor’s final 12 months. Williams won’t be a fantasy starter in September or October, but when the Jets offense is enjoying properly, Williams might be a steal over the second half of the season.
Attainable Targets: Jakobi Meyers, Curtis Samuel, Zach Charbonnet, Chuba Hubbard, Rico Dowdle
Spherical 12, Picks 133-144: Draft a operating again or broad receiver
High Goal: Rico Dowdle
Dowdle hasn’t been given many alternatives within the NFL with lower than 100 speeding makes an attempt in his four-year NFL profession. The one motive he’s value contemplating is due to the Cowboys backfield. Given Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons‘ contract conditions, the Cowboys’ solely noteworthy funding at operating again was bringing again Ezekiel Elliott. The longer term Cowboys Ring of Honor member already has over 2,000 profession speeding makes an attempt, rating within the high 40 all-time. Except Dallas brings in one other operating again or somebody decrease on the depth chart breaks out in coaching camp, Dowdle could have important quantity in some unspecified time in the future this season. In fantasy soccer, quantity is extra necessary than expertise.
Attainable Targets: Chuba Hubbard, Brandin Cooks, Jerry Jeudy, Antonio Gibson, Gabe Davis
Spherical 13, Picks 145-156: Draft a operating again or broad receiver
High Goal: Chuba Hubbard
Hubbard was utilized in quite a lot of conditions over his first two seasons, and his position elevated considerably for the 2023 season, enjoying at the least 64% of his workforce’s offensive snaps in every of his final seven video games. He completed at the least RB28 or higher in every of these video games together with two weeks as a top-12 operating again.
The Panthers added Jonathon Brooks within the draft as the primary operating again chosen, however he’s coming off a torn ACL. A couple of weeks in the past, it was reported that Brooks nonetheless has a methods to go in his restoration and can doubtless be eased into coaching camp. Hubbard has a good likelihood to be the starter at the least early within the season, and the Panthers shouldn’t rush Brooks. Hubbard is a superb gamble this late within the draft as somebody able to being a function again.
Attainable Targets: Gabe Davis, Jaleel McLaughlin, Adam Thielen, Darnell Mooney, Khalil Herbert
Spherical 14-18: Fill Depth
Use any further picks to select a kicker and workforce protection in case your league performs with them and forces you to draft them. If not, fill up on extra operating backs and broad receivers.