By Will Hill
FOX Sports activities Betting Analyst
Lots of the NFL awards given out each February could be complicated and open to interpretation with regards to the factors (I am taking a look at you, Comeback Participant of the 12 months). Nevertheless, MVP is just not a type of.
Working again Adrian Peterson received the award in 2012 after practically breaking the all-time speeding report for a single season. Within the 11 years since, it’s been all quarterbacks.
Additional simplifying issues, all of these 11 quarterbacks have been on groups which are both No. 1 or 2 seeds (and division winners).
Go all the way in which again to 2007, the 12 months after LaDanian Tomlinson received the honors, and all however one MVP winner was a quarterback and on a crew that was a top-two seed.
Together with Peterson, Peyton Manning in 2008 was the one exception, as he received the award on a Colts crew that was a No. 5 seed at 12-4.
You get the thought: This award nearly all the time goes to the quarterback of the most effective groups within the league.
Quick-forward to this upcoming season. In the event you have a look at the NFC, the 49ers Over/Underneath for season wins is a shade greater than 11. The Eagles, Cowboys and Lions are all just below that quantity. General, the Lions are projected to be an elite crew.
Nevertheless, the quarterbacks for the opposite three groups have MVP odds of 14-1, 16-1 and 20-1, respectively.
Lions quarterback Jared Goff is listed at 35-1 — practically double the payout of the opposite contenders.
This quantity appears mispriced, particularly contemplating we all know the factors of what constitutes an MVP within the fashionable period. Keep in mind, it’s the quarterback of the most effective groups in soccer.
Goff’s Lions received the division final 12 months. In addition they held a 17-point, second-half lead in final 12 months’s NFC title recreation in San Francisco earlier than shedding 35-32 in a heartbreaker.
If it weren’t for a few key drops and a fumble, Goff would have been headed to his second Tremendous Bowl.
Packers, Lions, Vikings or Bears: Which is one of the best crew within the NFC North?
The narrative on Goff has modified.
At first, he was a bust. Then he was considered by many as merely a product of Sean Mcvay’s system. Now, I believe the consensus is that Goff is only a strong soccer participant. Since becoming a member of the Lions, he has 79 touchdowns, with simply 27 interceptions. And he is thrown for over 12,000 yards in three seasons.
Patrick Mahomes received this award in 2018 at a ridiculous preseason value of 75-1 as a first-year starter. The following 12 months, Lamar Jackson received it at round the same long-shot variety of 70-1. Even in 2020, a resurgent Aaron Rodgers was a 30-1 winner.
With betting rising in popularity, these astronomical payouts are merely not out there for gamers who’ve any probability to win.
Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and C.J. Stroud are all 10-1 or shorter, for instance.
However in the event you’re in search of somebody additional down the board, Goff at 35-1 is one of the best mixture of lengthy odds with a sensible probability to win.
PICK: Jared Goff to win MVP (+3500)
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bears Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports activities for over a decade. He’s a betting analyst who has been a bunch on VSiN, in addition to the Goldboys Community.
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