That is The Takeaway from at the moment’s Morning Temporary, which you’ll signal as much as obtain in your inbox each morning together with:Within the first half of 2024, shares leapfrogged the wall of fear to ship one other stable set of six-month returns, main the S&P 500 (^GSPC) to a decent 14.5% acquire and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) to an excellent loftier 18% win.If historical past is a information, inventory seasonality nonetheless favors the bulls in July. In reality, the Nasdaq has closed inexperienced in 10 of the previous 11 Julys.This bullishness extends into full-year outcomes as properly.Trying again to 1928, there have been 29 years when the S&P 500 was up 10% or extra on the midway mark. By year-end, the common acquire was 24%.S&P 500 Month-to-month Returns When January to June Up Extra Than 10% In every of the prior 12 situations of robust begins to the 12 months going again to 1988, the second half of the 12 months closed constructive.And throughout all years within the group going again to 1928, the second and third quarters mixed had been up a median 6.1% (9.6% median) — and had been inexperienced 76% of the time.Amid all these bullish outcomes, two October inventory market crashes — one in 1929 and one in 1987 — paved the best way for the 2 worst-performing second halves of the 12 months within the set, down 21.7% and 18.7%, respectively.Whereas July sports activities a decent 1.4% common return (2.3% median), the share of years with constructive returns drops to 59% from 83% the month prior.The month-to-month seasonal sample turns from lackluster in August — with a 0.4% common acquire and 52% loss fee — to outright damaging common returns in September and October (although median outcomes stay constructive).Lastly, after three months of roughly sideways tendencies, bullish tailwinds reaccelerate from November into year-end — simply in time for the Santa Claus rally.Generally, historic seasonality patterns solely account for as much as a 3rd of value returns. Massive, sudden catalysts can rapidly tip the scales the opposite path — so we will solely define tendencies. Nevertheless it so occurs that inventory seasonality research have typically labored properly on this bull market, regardless of the AI second seeming sui generis.S&P 500 Seasonality — 1928 to 2023 First 10 Days and Final 10 Days of Every MonthSeparately, BofA studied the primary and final 10 buying and selling days of every month going again to 1928 and located that the start of July has the best common of any interval (up 1.5% with constructive outcomes 69% of the time), one other sample to look at for this month.Placing all of it collectively, we would anticipate some extra power in early July earlier than the normal election market patterns take over.Story continuesmorning transient imageClick right here for the most recent inventory market information and in-depth evaluation, together with occasions that transfer stocksRead the most recent monetary and enterprise information from Yahoo Finance