An important week of labor market information will greet buyers throughout a holiday-shortened buying and selling week that begins the month of July, the third quarter, and second half of 2024.The S&P 500 (^GSPC) enters Q3 up 14.5% to date this 12 months, whereas the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rallied greater than 18%. The Dow Jones Industrial Common (^DJI) gained a extra modest 3.8% within the first six months of the 12 months.With shares sitting close to report highs and up to date inflation tendencies proving extra constructive, all eyes have turned to the labor marketplace for indicators of weak spot because the Fed maintains its restrictive rate of interest stance.The June Jobs report will present a strong have a look at the labor market on Friday, whereas updates on non-public payrolls and job openings may even be in focus all through the week. Updates on exercise within the manufacturing and companies sectors may even be scattered all through the schedule.Constellation Manufacturers (STZ) is predicted to be the main focus of the lone notable company earnings report throughout an in any other case quiet week earlier than large banks formally kick off second quarter earnings season the next week.Markets within the US will shut early on July 3 (1 p.m. ET) and can stay closed on July 4 for Independence Day.A have a look at the labor marketThe June Jobs report is due for launch on Friday morning and is predicted to point out additional cooling within the job market.The report is predicted to point out that 188,000 nonfarm payroll jobs had been added to the US financial system final month, with unemployment holding regular at 4%, in accordance with information from Bloomberg. In Might, the US financial system added 272,000 jobs whereas the unemployment price ticked up barely to 4%.Financial institution of America US economist Michael Gapen reasoned a report alongside these strains would proceed to point out a labor market that’s “cooling however not cool.”On Friday, the most recent studying of the Fed’s most well-liked inflation gauge confirmed inflation eased in Might as costs elevated at their slowest tempo since March 2021.The print was seen as a step in the suitable path for the Federal Reserve’s combat in opposition to inflation.Optimistic tendencies in inflation, mixed with indicators of slowing in financial exercise, have economists arguing the Fed ought to be leaning towards reducing rates of interest sooner relatively than later.”Rising indicators of softness within the labor market present [Fed] officers additionally should be attentive to dangers to the total employment facet of their mandate,” Oxford Economics deputy chief US economist Michael Pearce wrote in a notice to purchasers.Building staff work on a brand new constructing partly lined with a big US flag on Sept. 25, 2013, in Los Angeles. (FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP through Getty Pictures) (FREDERIC J. BROWN through Getty Pictures)Halftime reportJust like 2023, most of 2024’s inventory market rally has been pushed by just a few massive tech shares. Story continuesMidway by way of the 12 months, greater than two thirds of the S&P 500’s good points for the 12 months have come from Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Broadcom (AVGO). Nvidia alone has pushed almost one-third of those good points.Regardless of some short-lived rallies all year long, simply two sectors have outperformed the S&P 500 this 12 months: Communications Providers and Info Know-how. Each are up greater than 18% in comparison with the S&P 500’s roughly 15% acquire.This has saved the controversy going over whether or not the second half of the 12 months will convey a broadening of the inventory market rally, a hot-button difficulty on Wall Avenue.Morgan Stanley’s chief funding officer Mike Wilson just lately argued in a analysis notice that given weakening financial information and excessive rates of interest, a real broadening during which sectors unrelated to tech choose up the slack is unlikely to occur.”Slim breadth can persist nevertheless it’s not essentially a headwind to ahead returns in and of itself,” Wilson stated. “We consider broadening is more likely to be restricted to top quality/massive cap pockets for now.”Extra megacap exceptionalismMost strategists have reasoned that megacap tech firms have led the rally for good purpose, given their earnings proceed to outperform the market. That is anticipated to be the case throughout second quarter earnings as properly.Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta are anticipated to develop earnings by a mixed 31.7% within the second quarter, per UBS Funding Financial institution US fairness strategist Jonathan Golub.The S&P 500 itself is predicted to develop earnings by a extra modest 7.8%.Which means the lion’s share of earnings progress is as soon as once more anticipated to come back from Massive Tech. And an analogous pattern has been seen in earnings revisions for the second quarter.Since March 31, Golub’s work reveals earnings estimates for the S&P 500 have fallen simply 0.1%, far lower than the everyday 3.3% drop seen on common. That is due largely to a 3.9% revision upward for the aforementioned six greatest tech firms.Getting into the second half of the 12 months, the controversy over whether or not these Massive Tech firms’ constant earnings beats will fall off will stay at heart stage.Weekly CalendarMondayEconomic information: S&P World US manufacturing, June remaining (51.7 anticipated, 51.7 prior); Building spending, month-over-month, Might (0.3% anticipated, -0.1% prior); ISM Manufacturing, June (49.2 anticipated, 48.7 prior)Earnings: No notable earnings.TuesdayEconomic information: Job openings, Might (7.86 million anticipated, 8.06 million prior)Earnings: No notable earnings.WednesdayEconomic information: MBA Mortgage Functions, week ended June 28 (0.8%); ADP non-public payrolls, June (+158,000 anticipated, +152,000 prior); S&P international US Providers PMI, June remaining (52.3 anticipated, 55.1 prior), S&P World US composite PMI, June remaining (54.6 prior); ISM companies index, June (52.5 anticipated, 53.8 prior); ISM companies costs paid, June (58.1); Manufacturing facility orders, Might (0.3% anticipated, 0.7% prior); Sturdy items orders, Might remaining (0.1%)Earnings: Constellation Manufacturers (STZ)ThursdayMarkets are closed for the July Fourth vacation.FridayEconomic calendar: Nonfarm payrolls, June (+188,000 anticipated, +272,000 prior); Unemployment price, June (4% anticipated, 4% beforehand); Common hourly earnings, month-over-month, June (+0.3% anticipated, +0.4% prior); Common hourly earnings, year-over-year, June (+3.9% anticipated, +4.1% prior); Common weekly hours labored, June (34.3 anticipated, 34.3 prior); Labor drive participation price, June (62.6% anticipated, 62.5% prior)Earnings: No notable earnings.Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. 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