A analysis report launched on Thursday by cryptocurrency market maker GSR highlights potential alternatives for the approval of a spot Solana ETF in the US, significantly with the potential for one other Donald Trump presidency on the horizon.
The report means that Solana (SOL) could possibly be subsequent in line for ETF approval following Bitcoin and Ethereum, doubtlessly resulting in important value positive factors for the cryptocurrency.
Drawing parallels with Bitcoin’s value motion following its personal spot ETF approval, the report presents three situations for Solana’s potential value improve: A bear case estimate of a 1.4x value bounce, a base case of a 3.4x improve, or a 8.9x improve “blue sky” situation that will characterize optimistic influx estimates.
“Solana is poised for a spot ETF if and when extra spot digital asset ETFs are allowed within the U.S., and the impression on value could be the biggest but,” the report suggests.
GSR, which holds an extended place in Solana, highlights a notable change within the political local weather surrounding cryptocurrencies in current months. Crypto has shortly developed into a possible wedge difficulty within the upcoming election between incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden and his presumptive Republican challenger, former president Donald Trump.
Particularly, the report notes “Donald Trump’s newfound backing of the crypto business, which in flip precipitated Democrats to loosen their stance towards digital property in a decent election 12 months.”
This shift has already resulted in bipartisan assist for crypto-friendly laws, together with the overturning of the SEC’s SAB 121 accounting coverage and the passage of the FIT21 digital asset regulatory framework within the Home.
GSR’s evaluation introduces an “ETF Risk Rating” based mostly on two key elements: decentralization and potential demand. Solana scored positively in each metrics, rating second solely to Ethereum on each marks within the agency’s view.
“Solana is subsequent, ought to extra spot digital asset ETFs be permitted within the U.S.,” the report finally concludes.
Including to the momentum, asset administration agency VanEck filed an S-1 registration kind on Thursday with the U.S. Securities and Change Fee (SEC) for a spot Solana ETF.
This marks a big step as it’s Solana’s first spot ETF registration within the U.S., coming simply six days after an analogous product launched in Canada. The submitting instantly impacted SOL’s value, which is up almost 10% on the day.
SOL beats BTC?
The evaluation additionally incessantly compares Solana’s prospects to Bitcoin’s current expertise with spot ETF approval in the US.
Notably, Bitcoin’s value noticed a 2.3x improve from $27,000 in October 2023—about three months earlier than SEC approval—to roughly $63,000 this month, which GSR primarily attributed to ETF-related developments.
Nonetheless, the report means that Solana’s potential upside could possibly be much more important, given its better utility throughout a wide selection of functions and use circumstances constructed on Solana.
“Not like BTC, SOL is actively used for staking and inside decentralized functions and as [such] the connection between relative flows and relative dimension is probably not linear,” GSR wrote.
Edited by Andrew Hayward