Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) dominates the marketplace for knowledge heart graphics processing items (GPUs), chips used to hurry up demanding workloads like synthetic intelligence (AI) functions. The Wall Avenue Journal not too long ago reported that “Nvidia’s chips underpin the entire most superior AI programs, giving the corporate a market share estimated at greater than 80%.”The corporate has been gaining steam because the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022. That occasion thrust generative AI into the highlight and impressed unprecedented demand for AI {hardware}. Nvidia shares have surged 150% this yr alone, accounting for almost one-third of the positive aspects within the S&P 500.Considerably surprisingly, historical past says Nvidia shareholders may earn more money within the second half of 2024, even after triple-digit positive aspects within the first half of the yr. Learn on to be taught extra.Historical past says Nvidia may proceed hovering within the second half of 2024Nvidia turned a public firm in 1999. The chart beneath exhibits its share-price appreciation (or depreciation) within the first and second halves of every full yr since its preliminary public providing (IPO). Nvidia has usually carried out higher within the second half of the yr, as evidenced by the median values listed on the backside of every column.YearFirst-Half ReturnSecond-Half Return2000171%(48%)2001183percent44percent2002(74%)(33%)200399percent1percent200412percent15percent200513percent37percent200616percent74percent200712percent24percent2008(45%)(57%)200940percent65percent2010(45%)51percent20113percent36percent20120%(11%)201315percent14percent201416percent43percent20150percent64percent201643percent127percent201735percent34percent201822%(44%)201923percent43percent202061percent37percent202153percent47percent2022(48%)(4%)2023190percent17percentMedian15percent36percentData supply: YCharts.Previous efficiency is rarely a assure of future outcomes, however we will use the data within the chart to make educated guesses about Nvidia’s efficiency within the remaining months of 2024.First, Nvidia has hardly ever adopted an upbeat first half with a downbeat second half. Particularly, the inventory has produced a optimistic first-half return in 18 years and a optimistic second-half return in 16 of these 18 years, or 89% of the time. In different phrases, historical past says Nvidia shareholders are more likely to make cash within the remaining months of 2024.Second, Nvidia has returned a median of 36% throughout the second half of the yr, greater than doubling its median return within the first half. Nevertheless, when positive aspects have exceeded 100% within the first half of the yr, the inventory has returned a median of 17% within the second half. So historical past implies Nvidia shareholders may see a 17% return on their investments within the remaining months of 2024.Story continuesUnfortunately, analyzing Nvidia’s previous share-price appreciation is a poor methodology of predicting the longer term. It overlooks consequential variables like present monetary outcomes, valuation, and market sentiment. However Wall Avenue analysts have thought-about these variables and haven’t got an ideal view.Wall Avenue analysts see little or no upside for Nvidia shareholdersAmong the 60 analysts who comply with Nvidia, 90% charge the inventory a purchase and 10% charge the inventory a maintain. Not one at the moment recommends promoting. Nevertheless, the median 12-month worth goal of $127.50 per share implies simply 3% upside from its present worth of $124 per share.Analysts have constantly revised their targets increased as Nvidia has crushed income and earnings estimates. However the firm can solely beat estimates so many instances earlier than the market expects that end result — and we might have reached that time already. Nvidia has beat income and earnings estimates by no less than 6% and 10%, respectively, in 4 straight quarters.That’s significantly spectacular, provided that income and non-GAAP internet earnings elevated at a triple-digit tempo in these quarters, as proven within the chart beneath.Nvidia’s income and non-GAAP internet earnings have elevated at a triple-digit tempo for 4 consecutive quarters. (Observe: The primary quarter of fiscal 2025 led to April 2024.)Here is the underside line: In some unspecified time in the future, traders can be disenchanted when Nvidia studies its monetary outcomes both as a result of income and/or earnings beat estimates too modestly or these metrics miss estimates. When that day comes, shares will in all probability fall sharply, no less than quickly.Even so, the bull case for Nvidia is easy. UBS analysts not too long ago predicted that synthetic intelligence can be “probably the most profound innovation and one of many largest funding alternatives in human historical past.” Nvidia’s graphics processing items are the gold commonplace in accelerating AI workloads. Analysts at Forrester Analysis not too long ago wrote, “With out Nvidia GPUs, fashionable AI would not be attainable.”Wall Avenue analysts anticipate Nvidia to develop earnings per share at 33% yearly over the following three to 5 years. That forecast makes its present valuation of 70 instances earnings look pretty cheap.Nvidia might or will not be a worthwhile funding within the second half of 2024. From its present worth, nonetheless, I feel the inventory can beat the market over the following three to 5 years.Do you have to make investments $1,000 in Nvidia proper now?Before you purchase inventory in Nvidia, think about this:The Motley Idiot Inventory Advisor analyst crew simply recognized what they consider are the 10 greatest shares for traders to purchase now… and Nvidia wasn’t certainly one of them. The ten shares that made the reduce may produce monster returns within the coming years.Take into account when Nvidia made this record on April 15, 2005… when you invested $1,000 on the time of our suggestion, you’d have $772,627!*Inventory Advisor gives traders with an easy-to-follow blueprint for fulfillment, together with steering on constructing a portfolio, common updates from analysts, and two new inventory picks every month. The Inventory Advisor service has greater than quadrupled the return of S&P 500 since 2002*.See the ten shares »*Inventory Advisor returns as of June 24, 2024Trevor Jennewine has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Idiot has positions in and recommends Nvidia. The Motley Idiot has a disclosure coverage.Nvidia Inventory Is Up 150% in 2024. Historical past Says the AI Inventory Will Do This within the Second Half of the Yr (Trace: It Might Shock You). was initially revealed by The Motley Idiot