No draft rating can correctly account for the chaos that’s the NHL Draft.
Every year, we see that vividly when the picks begin flying and the shock and awe comply with. Final 12 months, for instance, Arizona chosen Russian defenseman Dmitriy Simashev at sixth general. That was a lot sooner than the general public consensus had anticipated — Simashev was twenty fourth on final 12 months’s consensus huge board — however nicely inside the vary of his highest particular person rating in that survey: Corey Pronman’s checklist, which had him at No. 10.
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And whereas Simashev’s case reveals how an obvious consensus can typically be deceptive, it’s additionally an instance of the worth of placing totally different draft lists side-by-side. The knowledge of the gang issues — nevertheless it solely takes one staff to make a choose, so the variance in lists is simply as notable as settlement.
That’s why we’re as soon as once more compiling a composite big-board of 5 high-profile draft rankings, in an try to seek out each consensus and dissent.
We began with rankings from The Athletic’s personal prospect writers, Corey Pronman and Scott Wheeler, in addition to FloHockey’s Chris Peters, who contributes repeatedly to The Athletic Hockey Present podcast. To provide some outdoors taste to the consensus, we additionally surveyed the lists of former NHL GM Craig Button, who’s presently the director of scouting for TSN, and his TSN colleague Bob McKenzie, whose checklist is itself a composite survey of 10 NHL scouts, and is due to this fact a extremely helpful perception into the league’s considering.
Every checklist is in fact value studying by itself. However the aim in combining them right into a composite right here is to seek out some type of consensus, in addition to to focus on the place there are main variations.
So, let’s dig into the findings of this 12 months’s checklist, beginning on the place that might outline the 2024 Draft.
Prime defensemen
Consensus | Title | Place | Pronman | Wheeler | Peters | Button | McKenzie |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3 |
Artyom Levshunov |
RHD |
2 |
3 |
2 |
8 |
3 |
4 |
Zeev Buium |
LHD |
5 |
4 |
6 |
4 |
7 |
5 |
Anton Silayev |
LHD |
4 |
9 |
4 |
12 |
4 |
6 |
Zayne Parekh |
RHD |
9 |
5 |
8 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
Sam Dickinson |
LHD |
11 |
6 |
9 |
10 |
6 |
12 |
Carter Yakemchuk |
RHD |
3 |
13 |
10 |
15 |
13 |
16 |
Adam Jiricek |
RHD |
15 |
22 |
16 |
19 |
16 |
17 |
Stian Solberg |
LHD |
12 |
21 |
25 |
20 |
20 |
25 |
EJ Emery |
RHD |
36 |
32 |
23 |
16 |
27 |
27 |
Leo Sahlin Wallenius |
LHD |
21 |
27 |
34 |
29 |
42 |
The very first thing you might notice is that 5 defensemen ranked within the high eight general. That’s a giant quantity contemplating simply two defensemen have been picked within the high eight final 12 months, and three in 2022. Actually, the final time 5 ‘D’ went within the first picks was 2012, when six defensemen went within the high eight, and eight within the high 10: Ryan Murray, Griffin Reinhart, Morgan Rielly, Hampus Lindholm, Matt Dumba, Derrick Pouliot, Jacob Trouba and Slater Koekkoek.
We’ll see what number of in the end go in that vary this 12 months, particularly with forwards locking down the highest two spots on the consensus board (Ivan Demidov edged out Artyom Levshunov by only one level for the second general spot), however there’s little doubt that the ‘D’ will likely be a key story early on.
Levshunov ranked second or third on 4 of the 5 lists we surveyed, a testomony to the worth of a right-shot ‘D’ with dimension (6-foot-2) who put up glorious numbers as an NCAA freshman. His 35 factors in 38 video games for Michigan State dwarf the draft-year numbers of 2021 first-overall choose Owen Energy, who had 16 factors in 26 video games in the identical convention. Energy’s dimension at 6-foot-6 is a notable distinction, however the manufacturing from Levshunov is spectacular.
Much more spectacular? There was one other NCAA freshman defenseman who topped it this season. That may be Denver’s Zeev Buium, who is available in at fourth general on the composite after rating within the high seven on all 5 lists. Buium’s staggering 50 factors in 42 NCAA video games are among the many most ever by a U19 defenseman, and whereas his variety of video games performed helps that, additionally they communicate to a promoting level for Buium: He performed that huge position on the NCAA champion. Actually, Buium gained each the NCAA title and the world juniors final season, giving his manufacturing a profitable backing.
Towering Russian Anton Silayev is up subsequent at No. 5, bolstered by three totally different lists having him at No. 4 — Pronman, Peters and McKenzie’s scout ballot. Silayev’s dimension at six-foot-seven actually stands out first, however his manufacturing within the KHL is much more eye-catching: Silayev’s 11 factors in 63 video games are probably the most ever factors by a U18 participant — not only a defenseman — in that league. There are gamers who scored at higher charges within the KHL at that age, together with Vladimir Tarasenko, Kirill Kaprizov, and Evgeny Kuznetsov, however enjoying in so many KHL video games as a 17-year-old defenseman speaks to Silayev’s uncommon profile.
After that, three CHL defensemen slot into the highest 12: Saginaw (OHL) dynamo Zayne Parekh slots in at sixth general, London’s (OHL) Sam Dickinson is at No. 8, and Calgary (WHL) dynamo Carter Yakemchuk is at No. 12. All three had big-time years in Canada’s high junior circuit, and Parekh and Dickinson squared off within the Memorial Cup Closing earlier this month. And whereas Yakemchuk could be the lowest of the three on the consensus board, he had the very best individual-list rating of any of the three, ending at No. 3 on Pronman’s checklist.
Whereas we’re displaying the highest 10 right here, there may be some separation after these six, with Czech defender Adam Jiricek (brother of Blue Jackets prospect David Jiricek) and late-rising Norwegian Stian Solberg clustered collectively within the teenagers, adopted by EJ Emery of the USA Hockey Nationwide Workforce Growth Program and Sweden’s Leo Sahlin Wallenius extra within the mid 20s.
That speaks to at least one potential form this 12 months’s first spherical might tackle: a run on the highest defenders early, shifting right into a extra forward-heavy crop within the teenagers.
Prime forwards
Consensus | Title | Place | Pronman | Wheeler | Peters | Button | McKenzie |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
Macklin Celebrini |
C |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Ivan Demidov |
RW |
8 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
7 |
Cayden Lindstrom |
C |
10 |
10 |
7 |
9 |
5 |
9 |
Berkly Catton |
C |
6 |
8 |
5 |
14 |
12 |
10 |
Tij Iginla |
C/W |
13 |
12 |
12 |
3 |
10 |
11 |
Konsta Helenius |
C |
14 |
11 |
13 |
6 |
9 |
T13 |
Beckett Sennecke |
RW |
7 |
16 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
T13 |
Cole Eiserman |
LW |
16 |
7 |
14 |
5 |
14 |
15 |
Michael Brandsegg-Nygard |
RW |
17 |
14 |
15 |
17 |
17 |
18 |
Michael Hage |
C |
25 |
15 |
17 |
21 |
24 |
19 |
Trevor Connelly |
LW |
24 |
17 |
20 |
27 |
15 |
T20 |
Igor Chernyshov |
LW |
18 |
23 |
19 |
24 |
21 |
T20 |
Jett Luchanko |
C |
19 |
31 |
18 |
18 |
19 |
22 |
Liam Greentree |
RW |
23 |
18 |
31 |
23 |
18 |
23 |
Sacha Boisvert |
C |
27 |
24 |
22 |
25 |
22 |
Celebrini is in fact the headliner of this draft, with no actual doubt that he would be the Sharks’ selection at first general. Behind him is the place it will get attention-grabbing. Demidov took the second spot general on the composite checklist behind three second-place rankings (Peters ranked him third, Pronman eighth), however will he really be the second ahead off the board?
The Russian winger has dynamic ability and will go as excessive as No. 2 to Chicago, but when he have been to slide a bit — maybe primarily based on problem with in-person scouting in Russia lately — it’s solely possible the consensus No. 3 ahead, WHL heart Cayden Lindstrom, might go forward of him. Lindstrom ranked within the high 5 of just one checklist we surveyed (McKenzie’s), however his uncommon mixture of dimension, skating and ability could possibly be sufficient to land him there on draft day, particularly if groups are content material together with his medicals after he missed time with a again damage.
Two extra WHL wingers are subsequent up, with Spokane’s Berkly Catton and Kelowna’s Tij Iginla ending ninth and tenth on the composite checklist. Each are comparatively small (NHL Central Scouting lists Catton at 5-foot-10 and Iginla at 6-foot) however each completed within the high seven of all WHL aim scorers this season, and Catton (who performs heart) completed fourth in complete factors.
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Three extra names who didn’t end within the consensus high 10 obtained a minimum of one top-10 rating, although: Finnish heart Konsta Helenius completed at eleventh however landed at ninth for McKenzie and all the way in which up at No. 6 for Button. OHL winger Beckett Sennecke and U.S. NTDP sniper Cole Eiserman tied for the thirteenth spot on the composite, however Sennecke ranked seventh for Pronman, and Eiserman ranked seventh for Wheeler and fifth for Button.
There’s nonetheless some substantial ahead depth past these names that ought to carry into the 20s, however these high eight forwards — and the way early they will break into the run on defensemen — might decide simply how lengthy that depth lasts on draft day.
Largest variance in top-25
Consensus | Title | Place | Hole | Pronman | Wheeler | Peters | Button | McKenzie |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 |
Terik Parascak |
RW |
24 |
37 |
20 |
28 |
13 |
25 |
25 |
EJ Emery |
RHD |
20 |
36 |
32 |
23 |
16 |
27 |
17 |
Stian Solberg |
LHD |
13 |
12 |
21 |
25 |
20 |
20 |
T20 |
Jett Luchanko |
C |
13 |
19 |
31 |
18 |
18 |
19 |
22 |
Liam Greentree |
RW |
13 |
23 |
18 |
31 |
23 |
18 |
12 |
Carter Yakemchuk |
RHD |
12 |
3 |
13 |
10 |
15 |
13 |
19 |
Trevor Connelly |
LW |
12 |
24 |
17 |
20 |
27 |
15 |
T13 |
Cole Eiserman |
LW |
11 |
16 |
7 |
14 |
5 |
14 |
10 |
Tij Iginla |
C/W |
10 |
13 |
12 |
12 |
3 |
10 |
18 |
Michael Hage |
C |
10 |
25 |
15 |
17 |
21 |
24 |
This, to me, is probably the most attention-grabbing a part of the composite board: seeing how extensive the vary is on totally different gamers, and what it means for his or her general placement on a listing. Parascak, as an example, had a rating as little as 37 from Pronman, however results in the No. 24 spot largely on the energy of his place on the lists of Button (13) and Wheeler (20). Whereas that’s actually a large hole for a participant this excessive on the general checklist, it speaks to his potential vary of outcomes.
Behind Parascak on the checklist of gamers with extensive ranges are a pair of defense-first defensemen in Solberg and Emery. That profile is probably not as horny or have the gaudy stat strains, however we see 12 months after 12 months that normal managers worth it considerably, so excessive rankings of 12 for Solberg (Pronman) and 16 for Emery (Button) might nicely show correct come draft day.
Different gamers ended up right here extra on the pull of 1 low rating. That’s actually true of Guelph heart Jett Luchanko, who was top-19 for 4 lists surveyed, however down at No. 31 for Wheeler. And it’s true to a lesser extent of Greentree, who was within the high 23 for everybody however Peters, who ranked him thirty first.
You’ll be able to learn the whole high 65 right here:
2024 NHL Draft consensus rating
Consensus | Title | Place | Pronman | Wheeler | Peters | Button | McKenzie |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
Macklin Celebrini |
C |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Ivan Demidov |
RW |
8 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
Artyom Levshunov |
RHD |
2 |
3 |
2 |
8 |
3 |
4 |
Zeev Buium |
LHD |
5 |
4 |
6 |
4 |
7 |
5 |
Anton Silayev |
LHD |
4 |
9 |
4 |
12 |
4 |
6 |
Zayne Parekh |
RHD |
9 |
5 |
8 |
7 |
8 |
7 |
Cayden Lindstrom |
C |
10 |
10 |
7 |
9 |
5 |
8 |
Sam Dickinson |
LHD |
11 |
6 |
9 |
10 |
6 |
9 |
Berkly Catton |
C |
6 |
8 |
5 |
14 |
12 |
10 |
Tij Iginla |
C/W |
13 |
12 |
12 |
3 |
10 |
11 |
Konsta Helenius |
C |
14 |
11 |
13 |
6 |
9 |
12 |
Carter Yakemchuk |
RHD |
3 |
13 |
10 |
15 |
13 |
T13 |
Beckett Sennecke |
RW |
7 |
16 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
T13 |
Cole Eiserman |
LW |
16 |
7 |
14 |
5 |
14 |
15 |
Michael Brandsegg-Nygard |
RW |
17 |
14 |
15 |
17 |
17 |
16 |
Adam Jiricek |
RHD |
15 |
22 |
16 |
19 |
16 |
17 |
Stian Solberg |
LHD |
12 |
21 |
25 |
20 |
20 |
18 |
Michael Hage |
C |
25 |
15 |
17 |
21 |
24 |
19 |
Trevor Connelly |
LW |
24 |
17 |
20 |
27 |
15 |
T20 |
Igor Chernyshov |
LW |
18 |
23 |
19 |
24 |
21 |
T20 |
Jett Luchanko |
C |
19 |
31 |
18 |
18 |
19 |
22 |
Liam Greentree |
RW |
23 |
18 |
31 |
23 |
18 |
23 |
Sacha Boisvert |
C |
27 |
24 |
22 |
25 |
22 |
24 |
Terik Parascak |
RW |
37 |
20 |
28 |
13 |
25 |
25 |
EJ Emery |
RHD |
36 |
32 |
23 |
16 |
27 |
26 |
Cole Beaudoin |
C |
20 |
37 |
27 |
28 |
23 |
27 |
Leo Sahlin Wallenius |
LHD |
21 |
27 |
34 |
29 |
42 |
T28 |
Egor Surin |
C |
31 |
41 |
26 |
31 |
34 |
T28 |
Emil Hemming |
RW |
50 |
19 |
29 |
39 |
26 |
30 |
Nikita Artamonov |
LW |
30 |
40 |
21 |
40 |
35 |
31 |
Charlie Elick |
RHD |
22 |
43 |
24 |
49 |
33 |
32 |
Matvei Gridin |
RW |
34 |
38 |
30 |
36 |
37 |
33 |
Ryder Ritchie |
RW |
49 |
30 |
37 |
32 |
31 |
34 |
Dominik Badinka |
RHD |
29 |
44 |
44 |
48 |
29 |
35 |
Marek Vanacker |
LW |
52 |
35 |
50 |
34 |
28 |
36 |
Andrew Basha |
LW |
87 |
29 |
47 |
30 |
30 |
T37 |
Linus Eriksson |
C |
26 |
47 |
43 |
42 |
44 |
T37 |
Cole Hutson |
LHD |
60 |
34 |
35 |
26 |
47 |
39 |
Julius Miettinen |
C |
33 |
69 |
38 |
22 |
46 |
40 |
Dean Letourneau |
C |
28 |
45 |
32 |
69 |
36 |
41 |
Sam O’Reilly |
RW |
41 |
52 |
49 |
35 |
32 |
42 |
Adam Kleber |
RHD |
35 |
49 |
33 |
47 |
51 |
T43 |
Henry Mews |
RHD |
42 |
26 |
36 |
70 |
48 |
T43 |
Maxim Masse |
RW |
48 |
28 |
56 |
46 |
39 |
45 |
Lucas Pettersson |
C |
40 |
36 |
41 |
66 |
40 |
46 |
Alfons Freij |
LHD |
83 |
39 |
58 |
37 |
41 |
47 |
Teddy Stiga |
C |
65 |
33 |
40 |
64 |
43 |
48 |
Aron Kiviharju |
LHD |
61 |
25 |
52 |
60 |
52 |
49 |
Jesse Pulkkinen |
LHD |
46 |
75 |
42 |
75 |
38 |
50 |
Tanner Howe |
LW |
66 |
42 |
46 |
74 |
45 |
51 |
Luca Marrelli |
RHD |
43 |
73 |
51 |
44 |
62 |
52 |
Adam Jecho |
C |
38 |
62 |
45 |
67 |
60 |
53 |
Matvei Shuravin |
LHD |
32 |
66 |
NR |
61 |
50 |
T54 |
Ben Danford |
RHD |
44 |
58 |
57 |
78 |
54 |
T54 |
John Mustard |
C |
67 |
51 |
39 |
68 |
58 |
56 |
Leon Muggli |
LHD |
80 |
48 |
48 |
62 |
56 |
57 |
Harrison Brunicke |
RHD |
45 |
56 |
54 |
72 |
61 |
58 |
Will Skahan |
LHD |
63 |
64 |
59 |
52 |
49 |
59 |
Justin Poirier |
RW |
90 |
55 |
83 |
38 |
0 |
60 |
Max Plante |
LW |
88 |
76 |
73 |
33 |
65 |
61 |
Veeti Vaisanen |
LHD |
82 |
59 |
65 |
43 |
75 |
T62 |
Marcus Gidlof |
G |
39 |
86 |
86 |
NR |
NR |
T62 |
Carson Wetsch |
RW |
51 |
82 |
53 |
65 |
70 |
T62 |
Simon Zether |
C |
58 |
46 |
72 |
90 |
88 |
T62 |
Spencer Gill |
RHD |
106 |
97 |
81 |
51 |
53 |
(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; images; Bailey Hillesheim / Icon Sportswire, Maksim Konstantinov / SOPA Photos / LightRocket, Nic Antaya / Getty Photos)