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It is March. Everybody desires in on the Bracket Insanity. It is the most important precedence of the week.
Here is the factor with making these bracket picks. For those who choose all favorites, you don’t have any coronary heart. For those who choose all underdogs, you are missing in frequent sense.
If you wish to minimize down the nets (metaphorically, by successful your pool), you possible want a mixture of the anticipated and sudden. Simply keep in mind not play it too excessive in both path, particularly with the Cinderellas. I would like you to think about a number of the underdogs that I am going to current to you right here, however it’s in all probability not a good suggestion to chase each slipper.
Disclaimers said, let’s break it down.
Midwest Area: McNeese and Samford
Two of America’s sleepers get the test mark right here, and if they arrive by means of, they’re going to play one another within the second spherical. McNeese is a 6.5-point underdog towards Gonzaga (all strains from our companions at BetMGM), whereas Samford is catching 7.5 factors towards Kansas.
McNeese wasn’t afraid to play main competitors out of convention, taking down VCU, Michigan (perhaps that did not age so properly) and UAB. The Cowboys offense is a fluid machine, defending the ball and pulling down 39.4% of its 3-point makes an attempt, seventh within the nation, and its protection is all about forcing turnovers and chaos (sixth in turnover proportion). Will Wade was compelled out of LSU for recruiting improprieties, however he is aware of learn how to recruit, reloading the McNeese roster with a lot of transfers from upper-echelon applications.
Possibly the Cowboys will not be capable to rattle a Gonzaga group that takes care of the ball, however the Bulldogs struggled to guard the arc all 12 months and will get buried by an avalanche of threes.
Persist with me with the 3-point theme, as a result of it is screaming out Samford’s identify. These Bulldogs additionally excel from distance (39.3%, eighth within the nation), and virtually everybody of their main rotation is a menace behind the arc. Samford attracts Kansas at an ideal time; the Jayhawks are on a 4-5 skid, and stars Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson are each lower than 100%. I can not see Kansas advancing deep on this match, and a one-and-done outcome wouldn’t shock me.
Enable me to cheat slightly bit on the definition of a Cinderella. Though the Lobos drew a No. 11 seed, they’re favored over Clemson within the first spherical. New Mexico has a legacy taste to its success, with Richard Pitino (Rick’s son) holding the clipboard and Jamal Mashburn Jr. one among its three main stars. The Lobos have been in all probability underseeded by the committee; they rank twenty third in general effectivity by KenPom. New Mexico recurrently wins the turnover and offensive rebounding battle, two frequent paths to success.
Baylor would possible face New Mexico within the second spherical, a major problem — the Bears have NBA-ready expertise and shoot the three exceptionally properly. However Baylor additionally enters the match on a 5-4 slide, and have messy metrics on the defensive finish.
Selecting James Madison additionally pings at my coronary heart, as I’ve pulled for Wisconsin (buddies went there) and Duke (hey, I grew up on Christian Laettner) for years. Sure, I used to be conflicted throughout the 2015 nationwide championship. However JMU checks quite a lot of packing containers as we attempt to fill the Cinderella slipper.
A reputation model will not scare the Dukes — JMU opened the 12 months with an time beyond regulation win over Michigan State. All three of the JMU losses got here in January, however the ship has been righted — the Dukes enter the dance on a 13-game successful streak. Its offensive effectivity web page is a sea of inexperienced, and JMU additionally is aware of learn how to defend the 3-point arc (permitting a stingy 28.6 p.c on threes). You are additionally getting expertise with the Dukes, as they rank twelfth in that key metric.
The KenPom metrics are extra impressed with Wisconsin and Duke than I’m, and perhaps the reality is hidden within the stats. However it was troublesome to be impressed by a Badgers squad that discovered 13 losses throughout a so-so Large Ten season, and the Blue Devils gave the impression to be lacking one thing throughout a 3-3 skid to finish the 12 months.
East area: Morehead State
This Cinderella is listed on the backside for a motive. I count on the East to be chalk-heavy, and I would be surprised if No. 1 seed Connecticut did not cruise to the Remaining 4. However we would like each area to be represented on this train, and that leads us to an attention-grabbing 3-14 matchup.
Selecting Morehead State will not be for the faint of coronary heart. The Eagles haven’t got a signature nationwide win on their resume. That they had a one-point loss to an strange Indiana group, and in any other case have been trounced by Alabama, Purdue and Penn State. The Eagles merely making the sector is an enormous win, provided that they misplaced celebrity Mark Freeman to a wrist damage in October.
Double-double machine Riley Minix stepped into the void after the Freeman damage, incomes Ohio Valley Participant of the 12 months honors. Three-point ace Jordan Lathon additionally made the primary group. The Eagles discovered their stride on the finish of the 12 months, successful their remaining three video games in routs after which cruising to a bump-free journey by means of the convention match.
Illinois is not the sturdiest No. 3 seed. The Illini’s thought of protection is “don’t fret, we’ll outscore the opposite guys.” Illinois struggles to defend the 3-point arc and is ranked 360th within the nation in turnover proportion. There is no stress when making an attempt to attain on Illinois.
I additionally marvel if Illinois will remorse taking part in a weak non-conference schedule. The Illini confronted simply 5 ranked groups all 12 months, and whereas a part of that was associated to a mediocre Large Ten, it additionally makes me marvel how battle-tested they are surely. Illinois was capable of win the Large Ten match with out having to beat a ranked opponent. And generally I’m wondering if a deep run in a convention match results in an NCAA hangover, particularly if you must play by means of Sunday, as Large Ten groups do.
Information from the indispensable website KenPom.com was used within the composition of this text. All level spreads quoted got here from companion Wager MGM.