(Editor’s observe: That is a part of the Bracket Central Collection, an inside have a look at the run-up to the lads’s and ladies’s NCAA Tournaments, together with evaluation and picks throughout the tournaments.)
Throughout the season on this house, we frequently like to start with a bit of popular culture or historical past or another random little bit of nonsense unrelated to varsity basketball. So, uh, is it OK if we simply do this for everything of this closing installment?
As a result of we’re going to be completely clear right here. For the primary time in six years of constructing mock brackets for The Athletic, we go into Choice Sunday with no earthly thought of what the choice committee goes to do. Oh, positive, there are all the time small surprises, however for essentially the most half, the sphere is clear aside from possibly one slot.
Not this 12 months. After one of many wildest Championship Week Saturdays we are able to keep in mind, which included two power-conference bid thieves and a still-hard-to-believe consequence within the American, we discover ourselves totally confused by the bubble. And whether or not North Carolina will maintain on to that closing No. 1 seed or if surging Iowa State will take it. No less than we’re not alone:
Been doing this since 2006. It’s by no means been this tough for the committee, not solely due to how shut so many of those groups are, however due to the abundance of bid thieves which have knocked groups out. Happening midnight however the work continues. That’s why they name it Insanity.
— David Worlock (@DavidWorlock) March 17, 2024
Right here goes our greatest shot:
• NC State and Oregon successful their means into the sphere signifies that Virginia and Oklahoma are out.
It’s not so easy that the committee merely will exchange UVa with the Wolfpack in an ACC tradeoff. Virginia was our final at-large on Saturday morning, and the Cavaliers did lose head-to-head to NC State on Friday, so it appears honest that they’re the primary ones to get the boot. We then thought of a de facto Pac-12 switcheroo of Oregon and Colorado, because the Buffaloes made our subject for the primary time after successful within the Pac-12 semis on Friday.
However all this chaos pressured us to dive deep into the resumes once more, and … what’s spectacular concerning the Sooners? No unhealthy losses, positive, however they’re 4-12 in Quad 1 and 3-6 on the highway. They beat Iowa State and BYU, however each had been at dwelling. And past that, there’s not a single win in opposition to a workforce within the subject. After which there’s the matter of the No. 271 nonconference SOS. Add up the dearth of wins, unhealthy schedule, poor highway efficiency and a No. 44 KenPom rating, and this all of a sudden doesn’t seem like a NCAA Event workforce. Particularly because the ninth workforce out of the Massive 12.
• OK, nicely, who does go to the First 4? Nicely, in the event you ever wished to attend the video games in Dayton, get tickets this 12 months. We’ve acquired Colorado and St. John’s in a single play-in sport, and the opposite is … await it … Michigan State-Florida Atlantic. That’s proper, two groups that began the season within the prime 10. However the Spartans, regardless of their oddly glimmering metrics, are simply 19-14 general, 3-9 in Q1 and 9-14 within the first two quads. FAU, in the meantime, misplaced a Q3 sport to Temple within the AAC semis; the Owls even have two This fall losses and simply two Q1 wins (good ones, although, over Arizona and Texas A&M). If we didn’t know what Florida Atlantic did final 12 months and noticed this resume popping out of the AAC, we in all probability wouldn’t blink an eye fixed at this being a First 4 workforce. And in one other oddity, the First 4 groups are No. 10 seeds.
• Meaning Indiana State, Seton Corridor, Windfall and Pitt, together with Virginia and Oklahoma, are out of our subject. All these groups are ok to win a first-round sport. Some, greater than that. Greg Sankey will likely be livid Sunday night time!
• As for the highest of the bracket, we’re sticking with UNC. Iowa State appeared mighty spectacular this weekend, however keep in mind two issues: The Cyclones had been on the No. 3 line and No. 11 general within the committee’s top-16 reveal precisely one month in the past. North Carolina was No. 5 general. It might be a fairly large leap for Iowa State to leapfrog UNC (and the Tar Heels nonetheless personal the head-to-head with the opposite contender, Tennessee). Finally, it comes all the way down to this: the Cyclones’ No. 324 nonconference SOS. No. 1 seeds merely don’t have schedules that weak, and by placing Iowa State on the 1-line, the committee may set a harmful precedent we consider it wish to keep away from.
There. Disagree, giggle, come again after the bracket divulge to make enjoyable of how flawed we had been. Simply keep in mind, even the committee is aware of this Gordian Knot has no actual resolution. Oh, are you aware the Greek legend of the Gordian Knot … nicely, we needed to attempt to delay some extra.
This bracket will likely be up to date shortly earlier than the 6 p.m. ET choice present with closing tweaks and automated qualifiers. Simply don’t count on it to make any extra sense.
First 4 Out | Subsequent 4 Out | Final 4 In | Final 4 Byes |
---|---|---|---|
Oklahoma |
Windfall |
Michigan State |
Colorado State |
Virginia |
Pitt |
Florida Atlantic |
TCU |
Indiana State |
Kansas State |
Colorado |
Mississippi State |
Seton Corridor |
Ohio State |
St. John’s |
Texas A&M |
Multi-bid conferences
League | Bids |
---|---|
Massive 12 |
8 |
SEC |
8 |
Massive Ten |
6 |
Mountain West |
6 |
ACC |
4 |
Massive East |
4 |
Pac-12 |
4 |
A10 |
2 |
AAC |
2 |
WCC |
2 |
Seed record
1 |
UConn |
AQ |
2 |
Houston |
|
3 |
Purdue |
|
4 |
North Carolina |
|
5 |
Iowa State |
AQ |
6 |
Tennessee |
|
7 |
Arizona |
|
8 |
Marquette |
|
9 |
Baylor |
|
10 |
Creighton |
|
11 |
Kansas |
|
12 |
Illinois |
AQ |
13 |
Duke |
|
14 |
Kentucky |
|
15 |
BYU |
|
16 |
Auburn |
AQ |
17 |
South Carolina |
|
18 |
Alabama |
|
19 |
San Diego State |
|
20 |
Texas Tech |
|
21 |
Wisconsin |
|
22 |
Clemson |
|
23 |
Florida |
|
24 |
Saint Mary’s |
AQ |
25 |
Utah State |
|
26 |
Washington State |
|
27 |
Gonzaga |
|
28 |
Boise State |
|
29 |
Nevada |
|
30 |
Texas |
|
31 |
Nebraska |
|
32 |
Dayton |
|
33 |
Northwestern |
|
34 |
Colorado State |
|
35 |
TCU |
|
36 |
Mississippi State |
|
37 |
New Mexico |
AQ |
38 |
Texas A&M |
|
39 |
Michigan State |
|
40 |
Florida Atlantic |
|
41 |
Colorado |
|
42 |
St. John’s |
|
43 |
NC State |
AQ |
44 |
Oregon |
AQ |
45 |
Drake |
AQ |
46 |
James Madison |
AQ |
47 |
Grand Canyon |
AQ |
48 |
McNeese Sate |
AQ |
49 |
VCU |
AQ |
50 |
UAB |
AQ |
51 |
Samford |
AQ |
52 |
Yale |
AQ |
53 |
Akron |
AQ |
54 |
Charleston |
AQ |
55 |
Vermont |
AQ |
56 |
Oakland |
AQ |
57 |
Morehead State |
AQ |
58 |
Colgate |
AQ |
59 |
South Dakota State |
AQ |
60 |
Western Kentucky |
AQ |
61 |
Longwood |
AQ |
62 |
Lengthy Seashore State |
AQ |
63 |
Saint Peter’s |
AQ |
64 |
Montana State |
AQ |
65 |
Stetson |
AQ |
66 |
Howard |
AQ |
67 |
Grambling |
AQ |
68 |
Wagner |
AQ |
The Bracket Central collection is a part of a partnership with E*TRADE.
The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Companions don’t have any management over or enter into the reporting or modifying course of and don’t evaluation tales earlier than publication.
(Photograph of Tristen Newton: Sarah Stier / Getty Photographs)