Ric Bucher
FOX Sports activities NBA Analyst
Yaron Weitzman
FOX Sports activities NBA Author
The 2023-24 NBA common season is likely to be winding down, however groups are simply beginning to ramp up for the house stretch of the playoff race. The one drawback? A handful of contenders are coping with long-term accidents to star gamers.
On this week’s roundtable, we requested FOX Sports activities’ NBA reporters Ric Bucher and Yaron Weitzman to foretell how these accidents may have an effect on the playoff image, and whether or not there might be any lingering results going into the 2024 offseason.
The Athletic reported Thursday that Karl-Anthony Cities has a torn left meniscus and is out indefinitely. With the Minnesota Timberwolves tied for the No. 1 seed within the Western Convention, how does this have the potential to reshape the title race?
Weitzman: KAT has been incredible this season (22.1 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 3.0 APG, 50.6 FG%, 42.3 3P%), and deserves a ton of credit score for adjusting to life with Rudy Gobert. Coming into the 12 months, I used to be a type of individuals who thought the Wolves had been doomed as a result of that pairing was no good and KAT has confirmed me mistaken. His loss is clearly a giant blow to the Wolves however I do not suppose it dooms them. There are two causes. One is that in Naz Reid, the Wolves have a extremely good huge backup who can now slide into KAT’s spot. Reid is averaging 12.3 factors, 4.8 rebounds and 0.8 blocks in simply 23 minutes per recreation whereas additionally capturing 41% from deep. And lineups with him and Gobert on the ground, sans Cities, have outscored opponents by 13.3 factors per 100 non-garbage time possessions, based on Cleansing the Glass; that quantity with Cities instead of Reid is 9.1. The place this damage will damage Minnesota is within the depth division, and I believe once you get deep into the postseason, expertise trumps all. Shedding a expertise like Cities is clearly not superb, however the Wolves’ season just isn’t over.
Bucher: That is by no means an indictment of Cities or how he has performed this season, however his absence truly may make them extra harmful. Be aware that I did not say “higher,” simply extra harmful. Aside from the house loss in opposition to Charlotte when coach Chris Finch known as him out for deciding after a giant first half of scoring (44) he’d go for a profession excessive — which he received, 62 — however did so on the expense of successful the sport, Cities has tried to take a balanced method this season. However there’s at all times been a little bit of pure tug-of-war between Cities and Anthony Edwards, since their main values are as scorers. With Cities out, the roles and rotation must be way more outlined. Having him out additionally must be a motivating issue, in that each Timberwolf ought to really feel he has to play slightly more durable to compensate for Cities’ absence.
2. Ben Simmons was dominated out for the season Thursday after showing in simply 15 video games for the Brooklyn Nets this season. Is there nonetheless hope that Simmons can contribute to a successful staff and if not, does that change the Nets’ long-term outlook?
Weitzman: I believe it is over. We’re already uncertain the place he’s in the case of his want to play basketball. Now it is also truthful to ask whether or not his physique may deal with if Simmons was 100% all-in. Simmons this season tried 15 free-throws in 15 video games. Proper now, he is by no means a part of the Nets’ long-term plans — he is simply an expiring contract (or might be will the league’s calendar flips to the 2024-25 season).
Bucher: If he desires to play, I am certain somebody will give him a shot. His dimension and athleticism and potential continues to be tantalizing, and he is solely 27. He’d should show it in some non-public exercises within the fall or each time he is wholesome sufficient to play once more, however there’s an avenue to creating a return. Now, that does not imply I count on anybody to signal him to a multi-year deal or something past seven figures, as a result of it is truthful to query simply how dedicated he’s to the sport or maximizing that potential. This would be the final check of Simmons’ love for the sport — he will should bust his ass, be on his finest habits and do all of that with no ensures of taking part in time or vital compensation.
3. The Cleveland Cavaliers cannot shake the damage bug, both, dropping Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley to long-term accidents within the span of per week. Can they nonetheless contend for the No. 2 seed or is the Milwaukee Bucks‘ to lose with 20 video games left?
Weitzman: The Cavs, this season, have truly been higher with Mobley off the ground. They’ve outscored opponents by 1.5 possessions with him on the court docket and 6.5 when he is off. That is not as a result of Mobley is dangerous. It is simply that the match with him and Jarrett Allen has not been one. Each are huge males and in at the moment’s NBA it is exhausting to play two bigs, particularly if neither shoot 3s. And at this level, Allen is a greater participant. The truth is, the Cavs’ sizzling stretch over the previous few months has come on account of them surrounding Allen and their guard with wings who can shoot. So, no, the Mobley damage doesn’t suggest the Cavs are in bother. What’s going to make life exhausting for them, although, is that the Bucks (their blowout loss to the Warriors this week however) appear to have figured issues out, particularly on the defensive finish, below Doc Rivers.
Bucher: I used to be anticipating the Cavs to slip even earlier than the current accidents, due to how they climbed the charts — a schedule loaded with sub-.500 groups, which they dispatched with supreme effectivity, successful 25 of 29. Conversely, they’ve a dropping file in opposition to successful groups (15-18) and their stretch run is loaded with them; of their last 20 video games, 13 are in opposition to groups with successful data and 9 of them are in opposition to groups which might be a sixth seed or increased. The Bucks, alternatively, are certainly one of solely three groups within the East with a successful file in opposition to groups above .500.
4. The Denver Nuggets dealt with the Los Angeles Lakers once more on Saturday however then fell to the Phoenix Suns at house on Tuesday. Is that this Nuggets staff extra weak than final season or is the competitors within the West simply harder?
Weitzman: This Nuggets staff is superior, principally as a result of Nikola Jokic stays superior. The Nuggets are nonetheless very clearly the staff to beat within the West. The distinction this 12 months is that the West is a lot better and deeper. The Clippers are superior. The Thunder are younger however completely loaded. The Warriors appear to be they’ve figured issues out, and the emergence of Jonathan Kuminga has modified every thing for them. And the Suns are as harmful as anybody if wholesome. There have been no groups like this within the West final season, particularly after Ja Morant went down. The Nuggets ought to make the Finals. Nevertheless it will not be a cakewalk.
Bucher: The West is healthier, however so are the Nuggets. They’re successful at the next clip than they did final 12 months, after they received the West. Minnesota and OKC with one thing to show within the common season, the Nuggets are simply biding their time till they get to April, and but the 2 up-and-comers are just one recreation up within the standings. The query means that Phoenix uncovered some form of Denver vulnerability, which I am not co-signing. I believed — and mentioned — that the Suns may pose the largest problem to the Denver Nuggets repeating as West champions and the loss the opposite night time demonstrated why: Jusuf Nurkic’s mixture of dimension and familiarity with Nikola Jokic as a former teammate offers him not less than a shot at making Jokic work for his triple-doubles.
However let’s be actual: Denver had an extremely disjointed first half, trailing by 15 at halftime, and outscored Phoenix 11-3 over the ultimate 3 ½ minutes to drive OT. The Nuggets should not a turnover-prone staff and the Suns are, however that was flipped on this explicit recreation. Jokic had extra turnovers than assists, which occurs about as soon as a month. I do not financial institution on out-of-character performances. There have been questions concerning the Nuggets’ depth and bench with the departure of Jeff Inexperienced and Bruce Brown, however their fundamental subs — Peyton Watson, Christian Braun and Reggie Jackson — have been stable and environment friendly.
5. Simply 4 video games at the moment separate the No. 5 seed New Orleans Pelicans and the No. 10 seed Lakers. Which two groups among the many Pelicans, Suns, Kings, Mavericks, Warriors and Lakers do you are expecting will narrowly miss out on the playoffs and why?
Weitzman: It is so exhausting to reply this as a result of it is going to probably be matchup dependent. For instance, we have seen that the Lakers cannot sluggish the Kings, so what occurs in the event that they meet them within the play-in? But when I’ve to decide on two, I am going to go together with the Pelicans and Lakers as the 2 who appear to be probably the most weak in a play-in format. The Pelicans have bother scoring, particularly down the stretch, and I do not belief the Lakers’ capability to cease opposing guards.
Bucher: I see three groups as being weak proper now — the Lakers, Mavs, Pelicans. I might’ve included the Warriors about two weeks in the past, however Jonathan Kuminga has damaged out, and they’re getting some excellent play from their different younger weapons as properly. Whereas the Pels are highest within the standings, I’ve the least religion in them avoiding the play-in match or surviving it. That leaves a alternative between the Mavs and the Lakers lacking out and I will make it easy: I consider in Luka Dončić as a better greater than I do LeBron James proper now.
Yaron Weitzman is an NBA author for FOX Sports activities. He’s the writer of “Tanking to the Prime: The Philadelphia 76ers and the Most Audacious Course of within the Historical past of Skilled Sports activities.” Observe him on Twitter @YaronWeitzman.
Ric Bucher is an NBA author for FOX Sports activities. He beforehand wrote for Bleacher Report, ESPN The Journal and The Washington Put up and has written two books, “Rebound,” on NBA ahead Brian Grant’s battle with younger onset Parkinson’s, and “Yao: A Life In Two Worlds.” He additionally has a every day podcast, “On The Ball with Ric Bucher.” Observe him on Twitter @RicBucher.
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